In-Depth Market Prospects Analysis Report on Pan-RAS Inhibitor RMC-6236

RMC-6236 is the

developed by Revolution Medicines. Its unique mechanism enables it to simultaneously target multiple KRAS mutation types, including G12X, G13X, and Q61X mutations [1]. Unlike traditional KRAS G12C inhibitors (such as Sotorasib and Adagrasib), RMC-6236 has the following significant advantages:

• Broad-spectrum mutation coverage
  : not limited to a single mutation type, but targets active-state RAS proteins
• Dual targeting capability
  : inhibits both mutant KRAS and wild-type KRAS
• Oral administration
  : improves patient compliance and treatment convenience

Based on the latest clinical trial data, RMC-6236 has shown encouraging efficacy across multiple indications [1][2]:

Indication	ORR	Median PFS	Median OS	DCR
Pancreatic Cancer (KRAS G12X)	35-36%	8.5-8.8 months	13.1-17.7 months	91-95%
NSCLC (KRAS G12X)	38%	9.8 months	17.7 months	-
Pancreatic Cancer (All RAS Mutations)	27%	8.5 months	15.6 months	95%

Compared to the standard second-line treatment Docetaxel, RMC-6236 has demonstrated significant advantages:

• ORR Improvement
  : 36% vs 11.7% (approx. 3x increase)
• PFS Extension
  : 9.8 months vs 3.5 months (nearly 3x extension)
• OS Improvement
  : 17.7 months vs 9.5 months (nearly 2x extension)

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According to the latest market research from DelveInsight and Coherent Market Insights, the KRAS inhibitor market is in a stage of explosive growth [3][4]:

Forecasting Institution	2025 Market Size	2034 Market Size	Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
DelveInsight (7MM)	$526 million	$7.847 billion	35%
Coherent MI (Global)	$109.9 million	$156.7 million (2032)	5.2%

It should be noted that DelveInsight’s “7MM” (Seven Major Markets) model includes the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Spain, which is more aligned with the actual scale of global mainstream pharmaceutical markets [3].

1. Large patient population
   : In 2024, there were over 509,700 KRAS mutation cases in the 7MM market [3]
2. Indication expansion
   : Extending from NSCLC to high-incidence cancers such as pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and ovarian cancer
3. Pan-RAS inhibitor breakthrough
   : The first pan-RAS inhibitor enters Phase 3, covering approximately 90% of pancreatic cancer patients
4. Combination therapy potential
   : Exploration of combinations with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors and chemotherapy further expands market space

Based on mutation type distribution and market potential:

• KRAS G12C
  : Accounts for approximately 40% of NSCLC cases, with 2 marketed drugs (Krazati, Lumakras)
• KRAS G12V/G12D
  : Accounts for over 70% of pancreatic cancer cases, with highly unmet treatment needs
• Pan-RAS inhibitors
  : Can cover all RAS mutation types, with the broadest market space

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Company	Drug	Target	Development Stage	Differentiation Advantage
Revolution Medicines	RMC-6236	Pan-RAS	Phase 3	First pan-RAS inhibitor
Roche/Chugai	Divarasib	KRAS G12C	Phase 3	Head-to-head challenge against Krazati
Pfizer	PF-07934040	Pan-KRAS	Phase 2	Broad-spectrum coverage
Merck/Taiho	MK-1084	KRAS G12C	Phase 2	Combination therapy with Keytruda
Eli Lilly	Olomorasib	KRAS G12C	Phase 2	Safety advantages

• Received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) in June 2025 for the treatment of KRAS G12-mutated pancreatic cancer [5]
• Previously granted FDA Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) for pancreatic cancer treatment

• RASolve 301 (NSCLC Phase 3)
  : Initiated in Q1 2025 [6]
• RASolute 302 (Pancreatic Cancer Phase 3)
  : Enrollment expected to be completed in 2025
• First company to enter Phase 3 clinical trials for pan-RAS inhibitors

• Achieved breakthrough progress in pancreatic cancer, a field with highly unmet treatment needs
• Compared to existing standard therapies, ORR increased by 3x, and PFS extended by 2.5x

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Based on mutation frequency analysis, the target patient population for RMC-6236 includes:

Cancer Type	KRAS Mutation Rate	RMC-6236 Applicable Ratio	7MM Annual New Cases
Pancreatic Cancer	~90%	High	~140,000
NSCLC	~30%	High	~230,000
Colorectal Cancer	~45%	Medium	~500,000
Other Solid Tumors	~25%	Low	-

is the most valuable target indication for RMC-6236:

• Approximately 90% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases have RAS mutations
• Limited existing treatment options, with ORR of only approximately 6-17% for second-line therapy
• The 35-36% ORR of RMC-6236 represents a qualitative leap

Based on the following assumptions, market penetration of RMC-6236 is promising:

:

• Approved for second-line pancreatic cancer treatment in 2027
• Approved for second-line NSCLC treatment in 2028
• Peak global revenue could reach $1.5-$2 billion in 2028

:

• First indications approved in 2028
• Full commercialization achieved in 2030
• Peak revenue of $800 million-$1.2 billion

:

• Approved in 2029
• Market share constrained due to intensified competition
• Peak revenue of $300 million-$500 million

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Metric	2024	2025	YoY Change
Stock Price (USD)	43.74	79.65	+82%
Market Capitalization (USD 100 million)	73	151	+107%
Cash (USD 100 million)	15	19	+27%
Enterprise Value (USD 100 million)	74	153	+107%

Data as of January 16, 2025 [7]

:

• From October 31, 2024 to January 15, 2025, RVMD’s share price increased by 109.5% [7]
• During the same period, the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.5%, and the Healthcare ETF (XLV) rose by 8.8%
• Significant relative returns indicate market recognition of RMC-6236’s clinical progress

:

• As the company is not yet profitable, traditional metrics such as P/E and P/S have limited reference value
• DCF or rNPV models are more suitable
• Referring to pipeline valuations of comparable biotech companies, the standalone valuation of RMC-6236 is expected to be in the range of $8-$12 billion

Time	Catalyst	Impact
2025 Q1	Initiation of RASolve 301 (NSCLC Phase 3)	Validates the efficacy of pan-RAS inhibitors in lung cancer
2025 H2	Completion of RASolute 302 enrollment	Critical step toward pancreatic cancer registration
2025 Full Year	Updated OS data	Supports NDA submission
2026-2027	Submission of first NDAs	Important milestone before commercialization
2027-2028	Potential approval	Begins to contribute revenue

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:

• Phase 3 clinical trial results may not meet Phase 2 data
• Safety issues may be exposed in larger sample sizes
• Competitors may achieve better clinical data

:

• FDA approval requirements may change
• Accelerated approval may require confirmatory trials

:

• Pricing pressure and health insurance access challenges
• Price wars with competitors may compress profit margins
• Building a commercialization team takes time

:

• The company continues to incur losses and has rapid cash burn
• Further financing may be required in the future

:

:

1. Strong Track
   : The KRAS inhibitor market has a CAGR of 35%, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the oncology field
2. Solid Data
   : Phase 2 data of RMC-6236 in pancreatic cancer and NSCLC significantly outperforms existing standard therapies
3. Leading Progress
   : First pan-RAS inhibitor to enter Phase 3, with first-mover advantage
4. Dense Catalysts
   : Multiple key catalysts from 2025 to 2027 are expected to continue driving the stock price

: Based on rNPV valuation, a target price range of $90-$120 is assigned

: Current valuation already reflects some clinical expectations; it is recommended to accumulate on dips and pay attention to Phase 3 clinical readouts

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As the first pan-RAS inhibitor, RMC-6236’s 35% objective response rate represents a major breakthrough in the treatment of KRAS-mutated tumors. Considering the following:

1. Huge Market Size
   : The KRAS inhibitor market is projected to grow from $526 million in 2025 to $7.8 billion in 2034 (CAGR 35%)
2. Unmet Patient Need
   : The KRAS mutation rate in pancreatic cancer is as high as 90%, with extremely limited existing treatment options
3. Clear Competitive Advantages
   : FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation + leading development progress + excellent clinical data

RMC-6236 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug (annual sales exceeding $1 billion). For investors focusing on the oncology targeted therapy field, Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is worthy of key attention.

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[1] Revolution Medicines Clinical Updates - RAS(ON) Inhibitor Pipeline (https://ir.revmed.com/news-releases/news-release-details/revolution-medicines-provides-clinical-updates-its-rason)

[2] Clinical Trial NCT05379985 - Study of RMC-6236 in Advanced Solid Tumors (https://clin.larvol.com/trial-detail/NCT05379985)

[3] DelveInsight KRAS Inhibitors Market Report 2025-2034 (https://www.delveinsight.com/insights/kras-inhibitors-market)

[4] Coherent Market Insights Global KRAS Inhibitors Market Analysis (https://www.coherentmi.com/industry-reports/global-kras-inhibitors-market)

[5] Revolution Medicines FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation Announcement (https://ir.revmed.com/news-releases/news-release-details/revolution-medicines-announces-fda-breakthrough-therapy)

[6] RASolve 301 Phase 3 Study Protocol (https://www.revmed.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/REV-56808-WCLC-2025-NSCLC-TiP-Poster_HR_final.pdf)

[7] Trefis Revolution Medicines Company Analysis (https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/RVMD)