Analysis Report on the Strong Performance of Baichuan Changyin (300614)

Baichuan Changyin (300614.SZ) is an environmental protection enterprise focused on biogas resource utilization, listed on the ChiNext Board. Its main business covers biogas power generation, carbon emission reduction trading, mobile energy storage heating and other fields. As one of the main domestic third-party biogas resource utilization service providers, it has 79 biogas power plants with an installed capacity of 162.3 MW [0].

On January 20, 2026, Baichuan Changyin showed obvious abnormal movements, presenting typical characteristics of capital-driven growth [0]:

• Increase of 10.40%
  , closing price at RMB 15.08, approaching the daily limit (limit-up price: RMB 16.39)
• Turnover rate as high as 10.85%
  , far above the usual level, with sufficient chip exchange
• Volume ratio of 4.50
  , trading volume amplified 4.5 times compared to the recent average
• Main capital net inflow of RMB 23.3 million
  , with a net share of 9.11%

From the perspective of capital flow, the large order net inflow reached RMB 23.71 million, indicating that small and medium-sized main forces or joint institutions are buying intensively. This healthy trend of volume-price coordination shows that market attention has increased significantly [0].

The company is involved in multiple current market hot themes, which are in line with the direction of the national “Dual Carbon” strategic policy [0]:

• Carbon Neutrality/Carbon Trading
  : Has 19 CDM projects and 35 VCS projects
• Green Power
  : Biogas power generation belongs to the renewable energy power generation track
• Energy Storage Business
  : The mobile energy storage heating business has 326 energy storage heating vehicles
• Biomass Energy
  : A renewable energy sector that receives continuous policy support

The trading session showed a pattern of opening high and moving higher [0]:

• Gapped up to an opening price of RMB 13.81
• Hit a high of RMB 15.27 but failed to reach the daily limit
• The low price of RMB 13.66 showed strong support from the lower shadow
• Closed firmly at the high level of RMB 15.08
• Trading volume reached RMB 255.7 million, accounting for approximately 10.6% of the relative market capitalization

Baichuan Changyin’s business covers the entire industrial chain of biogas power generation, with a unique competitive positioning [0]:

Business Segment	Specific Content	Development Status
Biogas Power Generation	Recycle biogas from landfills and farms for power generation	Core business, 79 power plants with 162.3 MW installed capacity
Carbon Emission Reduction Trading	Development of CDM, VCS, and GS projects	54 international carbon credit projects
Mobile Energy Storage Heating	Waste heat recovery, heat storage vehicle transportation and heating	326 vehicles in operation, revenue growth of 133%
International Market	Photovoltaic and biogas projects in Colombia	Photovoltaic revenue increased 1067% year-on-year

: The company is currently in a loss-making state [0]:

• 2025 Q3 report: Revenue reached RMB 301 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.09%
• Net profit was -RMB 76.35 million, with the loss narrowed by 2.71% year-on-year
• Gross profit margin of 23.71% indicates that the main business has certain profitability
• However, the net profit margin is -28.51%, indicating a loss-making state
• P/E ratio (TTM) is -23.77x, with no valuation support

:

• Asset-liability ratio is 43.05%, which is at a reasonable level
• Net asset per share is RMB 6.59, operating cash flow per share is RMB 0.67
• ROE is -6.10%, with negative returns for shareholders

:

• The loss continued to narrow in each quarter of 2025 (Q1: -RMB 12 million → H1: -RMB 38 million → Q3: -RMB 76 million)
• 2024 revenue from international business (Colombia photovoltaics) increased 1067% year-on-year to RMB 14 million and achieved profitability
• 2024 revenue from the mobile energy storage heating business increased 133% year-on-year to RMB 97.56 million, showing potential as a new growth pole

Risk Type	Specific Description	Risk Level
Fundamental Risk	Sustained loss-making state, negative P/E ratio, weak fundamental support	High
Performance Volatility Risk	A huge loss of RMB 282 million in 2024, with questionable profitability	High
Theme Speculation Risk	The current rise is mainly driven by capital, with lagging fundamental improvement	Medium-High

• Policy Dependency Risk
  : Biogas production is affected by the policy of waste incineration replacing landfilling, leading to uncertainty in raw material supply
• Shareholder Pledge Risk
  : The controlling shareholder, Shanghai Baichuan Changyin Industrial Co., Ltd., has a pledge ratio of 61.27%. Attention needs to be paid to pledge risks
• Liquidity Risk
  : With a market capitalization of RMB 2.419 billion, it is a small-cap stock with large stock price fluctuations
• Sector Rotation Risk
  : The overall performance of the environmental protection sector is greatly affected by market style

:

• Volume breakout with obvious capital intervention, forming strong support in the RMB 13.66-14 range
• If it can break through and stand firm at RMB 15.50, it may challenge the daily limit price of RMB 16.39
• Continuous positive news from carbon neutrality policies

:

• If trading volume shrinks, it may pull back to the support level
• No valuation support from fundamentals, with the risk of a pullback after theme speculation

Sustainability depends on the following key factors:

• Whether trading volume can continue to expand and remain at a high level
• Whether there are follow-up positive news on performance or projects
• The sustainability of the overall popularity of the carbon neutrality sector
• The coordination of the ChiNext Index trend

The strong performance of Baichuan Changyin today is mainly driven by

and the , rather than substantive fundamental improvement [0]. From the trading data, the main capital net inflow of RMB 23.3 million and volume ratio of 4.50 indicate that institutions or large funds are buying intensively, pushing the stock price close to the daily limit.

:

1. Short-term trend is strong
   , but it is a typical capital-driven rise. Attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback after volume shrinkage
2. Initial signs of fundamental improvement
   have emerged, with continuous narrowing of losses and promising growth potential of new businesses, but it is not yet sufficient to support the current increase
3. Obvious risk-return characteristics
   : As a small-cap theme stock, it has high volatility. Investors should closely monitor changes in trading volume and set a reasonable stop-loss level

: The current stock has no valuation support and weak fundamentals, and the sustainability of the rise is questionable. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.