Analysis of the Performance Pull Effect of the Artemis Program on the U.S. Aerospace Industry Chain

#artemis_program #nasa #aerospace_defense #space_exploration #lunar_mission #investment_analysis #lockheed_martin #boeing #rtx #northrop_grumman #rocket_lab
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January 21, 2026

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Analysis of the Performance Pull Effect of the Artemis Program on the U.S. Aerospace Industry Chain
I. Overview and Launch Schedule of the Artemis II Mission

According to official NASA information, the Artemis II mission will be NASA’s first crewed lunar landing mission, marking the entry of the U.S. return-to-the-moon program into a substantive phase. The key time nodes of the mission are as follows:

Launch Windows:

  • Primary Window:
    February 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 2026 (launch could be as early as early February 2026)
  • Alternate Window:
    March 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 2026
  • Third Window:
    April 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2026

The final launch date will be determined after the completion of the Wet Dress Rehearsal and passing the Flight Readiness Review [0].

2026 YTD Performance of Artemis-related Stocks

II. Analysis of Major Industry Chain Companies in the Artemis Program
2.1 Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

Core Role:
Prime contractor for the Orion spacecraft

Lockheed Martin is one of the core contractors of the Artemis Program, responsible for building the Orion crewed spacecraft. This spacecraft will perform lunar round-trip missions and is the iconic hardware of the Artemis Program.

Financial Performance and Performance Pull:

  • Current stock price: $576.28, market capitalization: $134.5 billion [0]
  • Q3 2025 revenue: $18.61 billion, YoY growth of 8.8%
  • Space business segment revenue: $3.36 billion, accounting for 18% of total revenue
  • Q3 EPS exceeded expectations by 8.93%, with strong performance

Estimated Contribution from Artemis-related Business:

  • Approximately 15-20% of the space business segment is directly related to the Artemis Program
  • Estimated annual revenue contribution: $10-13 billion
  • As Artemis III and subsequent missions progress, this proportion is expected to rise to over 25%

Investment Rating:
Buy (54% of analysts recommend Buy), target price: $550-$660 [0]

2.2 Boeing Company (BA)

Core Role:
Prime contractor for the core stage of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket

Boeing is the prime contractor for the core stage of the SLS heavy-lift launch rocket, which is the primary launch vehicle for the Artemis Program.

Financial Performance and Performance Pull:

  • Current stock price: $249.01, market capitalization: $195 billion [0]
  • Q3 2025 revenue: $23.27 billion, exceeding market expectations
  • Defense, Aerospace & Security business share: approximately 30%, of which the aerospace business accounts for about 15%
  • 52-week gain: 93.8%, with remarkable performance

Estimated Contribution from Artemis-related Business:

  • Total contract value of the SLS project: over $20 billion
  • Single launch cost: approximately $2-3 billion
  • Estimated annual revenue contribution to BA: $6-8 billion (accounting for approximately 10-15%)

Risk Warning:
The commercial aviation business still faces challenges, with Q3 EPS at -$7.47 and operating profit margin under pressure

Investment Rating:
Buy (65% of analysts recommend Buy), target price: $263.50 [0]

2.3 RTX Corporation (RTX)

Key Role:
Rocket engine supplier (through the acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne)

RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) has become one of NASA’s most important rocket engine suppliers after acquiring Aerojet Rocketdyne.

Financial Performance and Performance Pull:

  • Current stock price: $196.33, market capitalization: $263.2 billion [0]
  • Q4 2025 revenue forecast: $22.48 billion (YoY +11.9%)
  • Q3 performance exceeded expectations by 5.4%, with particularly outstanding EBITDA performance
  • Stock price rose 25.8% after the earnings report release

Estimated Contribution from Artemis-related Business:

  • Prime supplier of the RS-25 engine (upgraded space shuttle engine)
  • Provides the main engine for the SLS rocket
  • Estimated annual revenue contribution: $7-8 billion (accounting for approximately 10%)

Investment Rating:
Buy, 52-week gain of approximately 74.8% [0]

2.4 Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

Key Role:
Supplier of solid rocket boosters

Northrop Grumman is responsible for providing dual solid rocket boosters for the SLS rocket, and is a key propulsion system supplier for the Artemis Program.

Financial Performance and Performance Pull:

  • Current stock price: $657.38, market capitalization: $93.8 billion [0]
  • Q3 2025 EPS: $7.67, exceeding expectations by 19.1%
  • Space Systems business revenue: $2.7 billion, accounting for 24.5%
  • 52-week gain: 54.2%, hitting an all-time high

Estimated Contribution from Artemis-related Business:

  • Contract value of solid rocket boosters: over $5 billion
  • Estimated annual revenue contribution to NOC: $5-6 billion (accounting for approximately 12-18%)

Catalysts:
Expectations of growth in the $1.5 trillion defense budget, increased probability of winning the F/A-XX program

Investment Rating:
Buy (57% of analysts recommend Buy), target price: $707.00 [0]

2.5 Rocket Lab USA (RKLB)

Growth Role:
Commercial rocket launch and lunar mission services

Rocket Lab is an emerging commercial aerospace company that is gradually entering the supply chain of NASA’s Artemis Program.

Financial Performance:

  • Current stock price: $96.30 [0]
  • 2025 stock performance: +173.9%, a staggering gain
  • 2026 YTD: +45.8%

Contribution from Artemis-related Business:

  • Provides lunar mission payload launch services for NASA
  • First launch of the Neutron rocket is scheduled for early 2026
  • Morgan Stanley raised the target price from $67 to $105
  • Rating: Overweight

Investment Characteristics:
High growth, high volatility, suitable for risk-preferred investors [0]

III. Overall Performance Pull Effect of the Artemis Program on the Industry Chain
3.1 Estimation of Direct Contract Value
Company Artemis-related Contract Value Percentage of Annual Revenue 5-Year Growth Outlook
Lockheed Martin $11-13 billion 15-18% High
Boeing $7-9 billion 10-15% Medium-High
RTX $7-8 billion 8-12% Medium
Northrop Grumman $5-6 billion 12-18% High
Rocket Lab $0.5-1 billion (growing) 5-10% Very High
3.2 Industry Chain Spillover Effects

The spillover effects of the Artemis Program are not only reflected in direct contractors, but also benefit a broader supply chain:

Upstream Suppliers:

  • Material suppliers (titanium alloys, composite materials)
  • Electronic component suppliers
  • Software and system integrators

Downstream Service Providers:

  • Launch facility operations
  • Ground control and communications
  • Satellite manufacturing and operations

Indirect Economic Benefits:

  • Every $1 invested by NASA generates approximately $7-8 in economic returns
  • Creates over 100,000 high-tech jobs
IV. Investment Recommendations and Risk Warnings
4.1 Investment Ratings and Priorities
Priority Company Rationale
★★★★★ Northrop Grumman High space business share, strong profitability, high growth certainty
★★★★☆ Lockheed Martin Stable core contractor status, sound financial health
★★★★☆ RTX Monopolistic position in engines, performance exceeding expectations
★★★☆☆ Boeing Clear recovery trend, but uncertainties remain in commercial aviation business
★★★☆☆ Rocket Lab High growth, but high valuation and large earnings volatility
4.2 Key Catalyst Events
  1. Successful launch of Artemis II
    (early February 2026)
  2. Successful completion of Wet Dress Rehearsal
  3. Contract awards for subsequent missions (Artemis III/IV)
  4. Confirmation of defense budget growth
4.3 Major Risk Factors
  1. Launch delay risk:
    Technical issues or weather factors may cause mission delays
  2. Budget risk:
    Government budget cuts may affect subsequent missions
  3. Geopolitical risk:
    Changes in international cooperation may affect program execution
  4. Company-specific risks:
    • Boeing: Progress of commercial aviation recovery
    • LMT: F-35 project progress and defense budget
    • Rocket Lab: Neutron rocket development progress
V. Conclusion

As the flagship space program for the U.S. return to the moon, the Artemis Program is expected to bring significant performance pull to the U.S. aerospace industry chain over the next 5-10 years. Core contractors Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX, and Northrop Grumman will directly benefit from tens of billions of dollars in government contracts, while emerging commercial aerospace companies such as Rocket Lab will also gain important development opportunities.

From an investment perspective,

Northrop Grumman
, with its high share (24.5%) in the space systems business and strong financial performance, may be the most investment-worthy target under the Artemis theme.
Lockheed Martin
and
RTX
offer more conservative investment options with their solid fundamentals and core contractor status. For investors pursuing high growth, although
Rocket Lab
has a high valuation, its increasingly close partnership with NASA is worthy of attention.


References

[0] Gilin API Market Data - Real-time stock prices, financial data, company profiles
[1] NASA Artemis II Mission - Final Steps Underway for NASA’s First Crewed Artemis Moon Mission (https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-2/final-steps-underway-for-nasas-first-crewed-artemis-moon-mission/)
[2] Lockheed Martin News - Stock Hits New 52-Week High (https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37131853/lockheed-martin-stock-hits-new-52-week-high-as-the-greenland-crisis-heats-up)
[3] Boeing News - Ethiopian Airlines Orders Nine 787 Dreamliners (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/6768494/boeing-ba-secures-order-for-nine-787-dreamliners-from-ethiopian-airlines)
[4] Morgan Stanley Space Sector Upgrade - Rocket Lab Analysis (https://blockonomi.com/space-technology-stocks-like-rocket-lab-get-major-boost-from-morgan-stanley/)
[5] Northrop Grumman ICBM Target Test (https://www.exchangemonitor.com/northrop-grumman-tests-icbm-target/)

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