Industrialization Progress and Market Prospect Analysis of Third-Generation Biodegradable Plastic PDA

Based on the information you provided and market data analysis, I have prepared the following professional investment analysis report for you:

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Third-generation biodegradable plastic PDA (Carbon Dioxide-Based Polymer) represents a major technological breakthrough in the field of degradable materials. Compared with the first two generations of technologies, PDA has the following significant advantages:

Technology Generation	Representative Material	Core Characteristics	Application Limitations
First Generation	PLA (Polylactic Acid)	Bio-based raw material, degradable	Degradation conditions restricted, poor thermal stability
Second Generation	PBAT	Improved mechanical properties	Difficult to degrade in marine environments, raw material dependent on petroleum
Third Generation	PDA	CO₂ as raw material, marine biodegradable	Relatively high cost, scalability to be verified

The global biodegradable plastics market is in a period of rapid expansion and is expected to show a sustained growth trend:

• 2025
  : Global market size is approximately USD 15-18 billion
• 2030
  : Expected to reach USD 50-70 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25%
• Chinese Market
  : Accounts for approximately 25-30% of the global market, and the domestic market size is expected to exceed RMB 50 billion in 2026

1. Policies and Regulations
   : Global plastic bans continue to advance, and China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” clearly supports the development of bio-based materials industry
2. Environmental Protection Demand
   : Marine plastic pollution control has become a global issue, and countries have introduced policies restricting traditional plastics
3. Dual Carbon Goals
   : The PDA technology using CO₂ as raw material perfectly aligns with the carbon neutrality strategy
4. Consumption Upgrade
   : The concept of sustainable consumption has become popular, and the acceptance of premium pricing for environmentally friendly products has increased

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According to the information you provided, Zhongke Kelan has completed the Angel+ round of financing, and the investor lineup reflects the synergistic effect of industrial capital and professional investment:

Investor	Type	Strategic Value
Jinqiao Fund	Industrial Capital	Access to industrial resources of Jinqiao Group
Anhui Fengyuan Biology	Industrial Capital	Background in biochemical industry, upstream and downstream synergy
Linge Venture Capital	Financial Investment	Focus on investment in new materials field

• High proportion of industrial capital is conducive to the industrialization of technology
• The participation of Anhui Fengyuan Biology provides potential raw material supply and channel synergy
• Reflects the capital market’s recognition of the commercialization prospects of third-generation PDA technology

The industrialization progress of Zhongke Kelan can be divided into the following key stages:

• Current Status
  : Topped out
• Location Advantages
  : Wuhai has abundant coal chemical industry chain and CO₂ resources, with sufficient raw material supply
• Milestone Significance
  : The 1,000-ton scale is a key threshold for technology to move from laboratory to industrialization, verifying the feasibility of technology scaling-up

• Order Scale
  : Over 1,000 tons
• Value Estimation
  : Calculated at RMB 30,000-50,000 per ton, the order value is approximately RMB 30-50 million
• Customer Verification Significance
  : Reflects the actual market demand for the product, which is an important indicator of commercialization prospects

• Production Commencement Time
  : 2026
• Capacity Ramping
  : Stable large-scale production is expected to be achieved from 2026 to 2027
• Lianyungang Modified Production Base
  : Planned to be constructed in 2025 to improve industrial chain layout

1. Technological Barrier
   : The only domestic enterprise mastering third-generation PDA technology, with first-mover advantage
2. Raw Material Advantage
   : Uses CO₂ as raw material, which not only reduces costs but also aligns with the Dual Carbon goals, enabling access to policy support
3. Performance Advantages
   :
   • Marine biodegradable (addresses the pain point of marine pollution caused by traditional plastics)
   • Controllable soil degradation cycle
   • Better mechanical properties (tensile strength, elongation at break) than traditional PLA

Application Field	Market Potential	Product Positioning
Ecological Agriculture	Annual consumption of agricultural mulch film exceeds 1.4 million tons, demand driven by plastic ban policies	High-end agricultural mulch film, drip irrigation tapes
3C Packaging	Annual demand for 3C product packaging exceeds 1 million tons	Electronic product buffer materials, express packaging
Marine Degradation	Driven by marine fishery and plastic reduction packaging policies	Marine packaging materials, fishing gear

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Company	Main Product	Market Position	Advantages
Kingfa Technology	PBAT	Industry leader	Large production capacity, mature channels
Wanhua Chemical	PLA	Rapidly expanding	Strong R&D capability, abundant capital
Hisun Biomaterials	PLA	Listed enterprise	Deep technical accumulation
Anhui Fengyuan	Lactic Acid-PLA	Complete industrial chain	Self-sufficient raw materials, cost advantage
Zhongke Kelan	PDA	Technology leader	Third-generation technology, focused on niche markets

• Leading Technology Generation
  : Third-generation PDA technology vs. first/second-generation traditional degradable materials
• Niche Market Focus
  : Three high-growth fields: ecological agriculture, 3C packaging, and marine degradation
• Industrial Synergy
  : Upstream and downstream integration opportunities brought by Anhui Fengyuan Biology’s investment
• Policy Dividend
  : Market penetration opportunities driven by both Dual Carbon goals and plastic ban policies

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1. Technological Barrier
   : The only domestic enterprise mastering third-generation PDA technology, with a deep technological moat
2. Industrial Verification
   : 1,000-ton outstanding orders verify the authenticity of market demand
3. Capital Endorsement
   : Joint investment by industrial capital and professional investment institutions enhances credibility
4. Policy Tailwind
   : Dual Carbon goals and plastic ban policies continue to advance
5. Growth Space
   : In the hundred-billion-yuan market, the penetration rate of PDA is expected to increase from less than 1% currently to over 10%

Company	Stock Code	Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
Hisun Biomaterials	688203	8-12x
Kingfa Technology	600143	0.8-1.2x
Dawn Polymer	002838	2-3x

• Assumption: Revenue will reach RMB 100 million in 2026 (based on outstanding orders + production capacity release)
• Reference: 5-8x P/S ratio for new materials companies
• Valuation Range
  : RMB 500-800 million (post Angel+ round)

Risk Type	Specific Risk	Risk Level
Technological Risk	Technology scaling-up risk (from pilot to large-scale production)	Medium-High
	Cost competitiveness (vs. traditional plastics and mature degradable materials)	Medium
	Technology iteration risk (replacement by other new technologies)	Low
Market Risk	Policy implementation is lower than expected	Medium
	Customer price sensitivity	Medium
	Raw material price fluctuation	Low
Operational Risk	Delay in production capacity construction progress	Medium
	Stability of talent team	Medium-Low
	Capital utilization efficiency	Medium

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1. Investment Type
   : Technology-driven early-stage growth investment
2. Revenue Source
   : Industry beta (growth of biodegradable plastics market) + company alpha (technological leading advantage)
3. Core Focus
   : Industrialization progress, order execution, optimization of technical indicators

Indicator	Tracking Frequency	Importance
Production progress of Wuhai base	Quarterly	High
Construction of Lianyungang modified base	Quarterly	High
New order situation	Monthly	High
Magnitude of technical cost reduction	Semi-annual	High
Competitors’ dynamics	Quarterly	Medium

• Deep technological barrier (only one in China)
• Smooth industrialization progress (verified by 1,000-ton orders)
• Strong capital support (synergy between industrial and financial investment)
• Clear market positioning (focus on agriculture + 3C + marine fields)

Time Horizon	Focus	Expected Return
Short-term (1-2 years)	Industrialization progress, technical indicators	Valuation re-rating
Medium-term (3-5 years)	Industry growth dividend, large-scale profitability	5-10x return
Long-term (over 5 years)	Technology iteration, consolidation of market position	Long-term growth value

Early-stage projects have uncertainties in technology scaling-up, risk of intensified market competition, and risk of policy changes. It is recommended that investors focus on the production commencement of the Wuhai base in 2026 and the execution of outstanding orders.

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The figure above shows the growth forecast of the global biodegradable plastics market size from 2020 to 2030. It can be seen that the market is expected to grow from USD 8 billion in 2020 to USD 60 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of over 20%, which is in a high-growth stage.

From the comparison of technical indicators, it can be seen that:

• Cost Index
  : PDA has a relatively high cost (about 150 index), mainly due to insufficient large-scale production
• Comprehensive Performance
  : PDA has the best performance (90 points), surpassing PLA and PBAT
• Degradation Performance
  : PDA has the best marine degradation performance (95 points), which is its core competitive advantage

Among the three application fields focused by Zhongke Kelan:

• Ecological Agriculture (35%)
  : Agricultural mulch film is the largest application scenario
• 3C Packaging (30%)
  : Demand for electronic product packaging is growing rapidly
• Marine Degradation (20%)
  : High-value-added niche market

From the perspective of industrialization progress:

• R&D Stage (100%)
  : Completed
• Pilot Scaling-up (95%)
  : Basically completed
• 1,000-Ton Industrialization (70%)
  : Under construction, expected to be put into operation in 2026
• Large-Scale Production (30%)
  : In planning

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