Valuation Outlook for T-Head's Hong Kong IPO and Reassessment of Domestic AI Chip Value

Now I will provide a comprehensive investment research analysis report.

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[1][2]

Based on multi-dimensional analysis including product line completeness, technological leadership, market position, and commercialization maturity, we estimate that T-Head’s valuation range for its Hong Kong IPO is

, significantly higher than the current upper limit of Biren Technology’s market capitalization of HKD 70 billion (approximately RMB 65 billion).

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T-Head Semiconductor Co., Ltd. was founded in September 2018, and is the wholly-owned semiconductor chip business entity of Alibaba Group. After 8 years of layout, T-Head has built an

, covering data center chips, IoT chips, etc., achieving full coverage of end-to-end chip design links.[2][3]

Product Line	Product Name	Core Performance Indicators	Commercialization Status
AI Accelerator Chips	HanGuang 800	Inference performance of 78,563 IPS, industry-leading	Mass-produced
General-Purpose GPU (PPU)	PPU	96GB HBM2e, 700GB/s bandwidth, comparable to NVIDIA H20	Mass-produced
General-Purpose CPU	Yitian 710	20% higher performance than industry benchmarks of the same period	Mass-produced
Storage Chips	Zhenyue 510	Comparable to Samsung’s flagship SSD controller	Mass-produced
IoT Chips	Yuzhen Series	Shipment volume of hundreds of millions of units	Mass-produced
Network Chips	In Planning	To be launched soon	In Planning

As shown in the figure, Biren Technology only covers a single product line of general-purpose GPUs, while T-Head has formed a

. Such product line completeness is among domestic AI chip enterprises.[4]

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According to CCTV’s Xinwen Lianbo (News Broadcast) report in September 2025 and verification from multiple sources, the key parameters of T-Head’s PPU are as follows:[3][5]

• Video Memory Specification
  : 96GB HBM2e
• Inter-Chip Interconnect Bandwidth
  : 700GB/s
• Interface Standard
  : PCIe 5.0×16
• Power Consumption Control
  : 400W (approximately 30% lower than NVIDIA H20’s 550W)
• Peak Computing Power
  : 120TFLOPS (base version, focused on AI inference)
• Ecosystem Compatibility
  : CUDA-compatible, significantly reducing user migration costs

Performance Dimension	T-Head PPU	NVIDIA A800	NVIDIA H20	Comparison Conclusion
Video Memory Capacity	96GB	80GB	96GB	On par with H20, surpasses A800
Interconnect Bandwidth	700GB/s	400GB/s	900GB/s	Surpasses A800, close to H20
Power Consumption	400W	300W	550W	Best energy efficiency ratio
Comprehensive Performance	-	-	-	Surpasses A800, comparable to H20

T-Head’s PPU has achieved several milestone breakthroughs:[5]

1. National-Level Project Recognition
   : China Unicom’s Sanjiangyuan Green Power Intelligent Computing Center project signed an order for
   1,024 devices with 16,384 T-Head computing cards
   , with a total computing power of 1945P, becoming the
   largest order
   among all brands

2. Leading Market Share
   : According to industry insiders, T-Head’s PPU has become
   one of the highest-shipping self-developed GPUs in China
   in 2025

3. Significant Cost Advantage
   : Benefiting from domestic 7nm process and 2.5D packaging technology, the single-card cost of PPU is
   40% lower
   than that of imported H20

4. Leading Technology Generation
   : According to a September 2025 report by The Information, the upgraded PPU’s performance is comparable to NVIDIA’s A100

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Company	Listing Venue	Market Capitalization/Valuation (in RMB 100 million)	2025 Revenue (in RMB 100 million)	PS Valuation Multiple	Characteristics
Cambricon	A-Share (STAR Market)	6300	28.8	218.8x	Leading AI chip enterprise
Moore Threads	A-Share (STAR Market)	3100	7.8	397.4x	Fastest approval on STAR Market
Muxi Semiconductor	A-Share (STAR Market)	2400	12.36	194.2x	Full-process domestic production
Biren Technology	Hong Kong Stock Exchange (18C)	700	0.59	1186.4x	First GPU stock on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Iluvatar CoreX	Hong Kong Stock Exchange (18C)	400	3.24	123.5x	General-Purpose GPU
T-Head	Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Estimated)	1500-4000	Undisclosed	Pending	Strongest full-stack capability

Biren Technology listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2026, becoming the “first GPU stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange”, with an issue price of HKD 19.6, and net proceeds of HKD 5.375 billion.[1][6]

:

• H1 2025 Revenue: approximately
  RMB 58.9 million
• 2025 Full-Year Revenue Estimate: approximately
  RMB 660 million
• Order Backlog: RMB 822 million
• Cash as of H1 2025: RMB 1.285 billion
• Cumulative Loss from 2022 to H1 2025: over RMB 6.3 billion

: Biren Technology’s PS valuation multiple is as high as , significantly higher than other peers, reflecting the capital market’s extreme optimism towards the domestic AI chip track and the scarcity premium of being the “first stock”.

T-Head is the

covering full-stack data center chips (CPU+GPU+Storage+Network+IoT). This full-stack capability can bring:

• One-stop solution capability for customers
• Higher customer stickiness and repurchase rate
• System-level collaborative optimization advantages
• Cross-product line synergy effects

According to IDC data, in H1 2025, NVIDIA accounted for 62% of the Chinese AI chip market, while local chips accounted for 35%. Among domestic players, Huawei Ascend accounted for approximately 57.5% of the share, Cambricon 10%, Moore Threads 3.75%, and other manufacturers 28.75%. Although T-Head’s PPU market share is not disclosed separately, industry insiders revealed that its

.[7]

Dimension	Biren Technology	T-Head
2025 Revenue Scale	~RMB 660 million	Undisclosed, but PPU has achieved large-scale shipments
Benchmark Customers	China Mobile, China Telecom	Alibaba Cloud, China Unicom
Large-Scale Deployment Cases	Relatively limited	Sanjiangyuan Project with 16,384 cards
Loss Situation	Cumulative loss over RMB 6.3 billion	R&D investment guaranteed by Alibaba’s support

If T-Head goes public, it will become

in the Hong Kong stock market. Coupled with the endorsement of the Alibaba ecosystem, it is expected to obtain a significant scarcity premium.

Scenario	Valuation (in RMB 100 million)	Valuation Logic
Conservative Scenario	1500	Referring to Iluvatar CoreX’s 123x PS, estimated based on RMB 1.2 billion revenue
Base Case Scenario	2500	80% of Moore Threads’ RMB 31 billion valuation, considering full-stack premium
Optimistic Scenario	4000	Approximately 60% of Cambricon’s RMB 63 billion valuation, considering Alibaba ecosystem premium

:

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The current capital market’s valuation of domestic AI chip companies mainly relies on the following logic:

1. Track Heat-Driven
   : AI chips are classified as strategic emerging industries, enjoying policy dividends and capital pursuit
2. PS Valuation Method-Driven
   : Since most enterprises are not yet profitable, the capital market adopts the PS valuation method, leading to extremely high valuation multiples (Biren Technology’s 1186x PS)
3. Single Product Line Valuation
   : Existing valuation models mainly focus on the single GPU product line, ignoring system-level capabilities
4. Shipment Volume Imagination
   : Over-reliance on optimistic expectations of computing power demand growth

T-Head’s full-stack product layout will force investors to re-examine the valuation logic of AI chip enterprises:

• Synergistic value of CPU+GPU+Storage+Network+IoT
• Premium space brought by end-to-end solution capabilities
• Economies of scale in cross-product line R&D investment

Biren Technology’s H1 2025 revenue was only RMB 58.9 million, while T-Head’s PPU has already secured a large-scale order of

in China Unicom’s Sanjiangyuan project. Such real commercial implementation cases will increase the market’s emphasis on “high-quality revenue”.

Cambricon achieved

in H1 2025, with a net profit of RMB 1.038 billion, verifying the profit potential of AI chip enterprises. If T-Head can demonstrate profitability, it will promote the valuation system’s shift from “price-to-dream ratio” to “price-to-earnings ratio”.

The “AI full-stack layout” model of Alibaba Cloud + T-Head chips + Tongyi Qianwen model will make the capital market pay more attention to the synergy between AI chip enterprises and ecosystem systems, rather than purely technical indicators.

Valuation Dimension	Before Adjustment	After Adjustment	Adjustment Logic
Full-Stack Chip Companies	No reference	RMB 250-400 billion	T-Head sets a benchmark
Single GPU Companies	RMB 30-70 billion	RMB 30-70 billion	Positioning of Biren, Iluvatar CoreX
AI Inference-Focused Companies	RMB 20-50 billion	RMB 50-100 billion	Explosive growth of inference market
Pure Design Companies	RMB 10-30 billion	RMB 10-30 billion	Light asset model

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1. Policy Support Exceeding Expectations
   : Continued intensification of domestic computing power localization policies
2. Commercialization Exceeding Expectations
   : PPU secures more orders from internet giants
3. Technological Breakthrough
   : Next-generation PPU’s performance surpasses NVIDIA’s mainstream products
4. Valuation Reassessment
   : T-Head drives the upward shift of the industry valuation center

1. IPO Process Falling Short of Expectations
   : Uncertainties in restructuring and IPO timeline
2. Intensified Competition
   : Continuous efforts by Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, etc.
3. Macroeconomic Fluctuations
   : Cooling of AI investment boom affects valuation
4. Technological Iteration Risk
   : Launch of new-generation products by international giants

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• Significant valuation premium brought by full-stack chip capabilities
• PPU’s leading market position verifies technological competitiveness
• Alibaba ecosystem synergy provides commercialization guarantees
• Conservative valuation of RMB 150 billion, base case of RMB 250 billion, optimistic case of RMB 400 billion

• Perspective shift from single product line to full-stack capability
• Evaluation upgrade from shipment volume expectations to commercialization quality
• Focus shift from loss tolerance to profitability
• Comprehensive evaluation from single-point technology to ecosystem synergy

Investor Type	Recommended Strategy
Primary Market Investors	Closely monitor T-Head’s IPO progress, reserve subscription quota
Secondary Market Investors	Pay attention to valuation reassessment opportunities in the domestic AI chip sector
Industrial Investors	Evaluate cooperation opportunities with T-Head in the computing power field
Long-Term Investors	Include T-Head in core allocation targets for AI computing power

2025 is the first year of the collective outbreak of China’s domestic AI chips. According to the Hurun China AI Top 50 list, AI chip-related enterprises account for 7 of the top 10 spots, with the threshold for the top 10 reaching RMB 73 billion, more than three times that of the previous year.[4] The addition of T-Head will further strengthen the domestic AI chip camp, promoting China’s transformation from a “big country in AI applications” to a “strong country in AI innovation”.

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[1] Sina Finance - “Complete Review! Biren Technology Lists, Market Capitalization Surges to HKD 90 Billion, Revealing the Capital Layout Behind It” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/2026-01-02/doc-inhewqnv2282085.shtml)

[2] 36Kr - “Alibaba’s T-Head Launches IPO Plan, Has Laid Out Full-Stack AI Chips” (https://eu.36kr.com/zh/p/3650412256731265)

[3] OFweek - “Farewell to ‘Choke Points’! Domestic AI Chips Break Out Collectively” (https://mp.ofweek.com/ai/a756714367577)

[4] Hurun Research Institute - “2025 Hurun China Top 50 Artificial Intelligence Enterprises” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KJKKPLQE0519D5IA.html)

[5] CCTV Xinwen Lianbo (News Broadcast) - “Construction Achievements of China Unicom’s Sanjiangyuan Green Power Intelligent Computing Center Project” (Aired on September 16, 2025)

[6] Caixin Media - “Biren Technology, the First GPU Stock on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Surges 94.59%” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2246285)

[7] Caijing - “How Can China’s Computing Power Become Strong?” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260104A05JOE00)

[8] New Hunan - “Alibaba’s US Pre-Market Up Over 5%, Its Chip Subsidiary T-Head Reportedly Plans to List Independently” (https://m.voc.com.cn/xhn/news/202601/31410239.html)