Investment Value Analysis of the AI Industry Amid the Trend of Shifting Focus to Commercialization

Now let me present the complete investment analysis report to you.

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In January 2026, Zhipu AI and MiniMax were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange one after another, marking the official end of the “technology competition” wild phase for China’s AI industry and entry into a critical transition period of “profit-oriented narrative” [1]. This shift is not accidental, but a clear signal from the capital market:

[2].

According to the 2026 Top 10 AI Technology Trends released by the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence (BAAI), AI is evolving from a language game of “predicting the next word” to exploring physical laws of “predicting the state of the world” [3]. The emergence of the NSP (Next-State Prediction) paradigm has endowed models with the ability to understand the laws of the physical world, which provides a solid technical foundation for commercialization.

Zhipu AI and MiniMax completed nearly HK$10 billion in fundraising within 48 hours, with a combined market value approaching HK$170 billion, setting a historical record for the Hong Kong AI sector:

Indicator	Zhipu AI (06610.HK)	MiniMax (02580.HK)
Listing Date	January 13, 2026	January 14, 2026
Positioning	“The First Global General-Purpose Large Model Stock”	“The Fastest IPO AI Company”
Oversubscription Multiple	1164x	1837x
First-Day Market Cap	HK$52.8 billion	Approximately HK$105 billion (intraday high exceeded HK$120 billion)
Fundraising Amount	HK$4.348 billion	HK$5.540 billion
IPO Subscription Amount	HK$197.7 billion	HK$253.3 billion

This capital market hype reflects the collective bet on the value of the AI industry, and more importantly, the consensus on the value of AI’s transformation from a technical concept to social infrastructure [3].

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Based on the analysis framework of 36Kr’s “2026 AI Best Scenario Penetration Case Selection”, evaluating the investment value of AI vertical scenarios requires a comprehensive consideration of six dimensions: market size, growth potential, technological maturity, commercialization certainty, competitive landscape, and policy support [2].

Huawei, with its full-stack intelligent solutions ranging from assisted driving, intelligent cockpits to intelligent vehicle cloud services, has deeply empowered multiple domestic mainstream automakers, facilitating the intelligent transformation and upgrading of China’s automotive industry [2]. In 2026, the embodied intelligence industry enters a “capacity clearing period”, and leading enterprises will form a stable pattern with their order advantages [3].

• Market Size: Expected to reach RMB 850 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.5%
• Technological Breakthrough: The closed-loop evolution model of “World Model + Reinforcement Learning” has become the mainstream
• Policy Support: Strongly backed by the “Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of ‘Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing’” jointly issued by eight ministries and commissions

Kuaishou has deeply applied AI to scenarios such as short drama creation and e-commerce live streaming, realizing automated content production through video generation and intelligent editing, and forming a complete ecological chain from creation, distribution to commercial conversion [2].

• Market Size: Expected to reach RMB 550 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 45.2%
• Technological Maturity: ★★★★★ (Leading multimodal generation technology)
• Monetization Path: Diversified business models such as advertising, e-commerce, and membership have been fully verified

With the arrival of the intelligent agent (Agent) era, AI is no longer limited to text interaction on screens, but has the ability to complete the entire link of “planning - price comparison - decision - payment” in the physical world [2]. In January 2026, Alibaba’s Qianwen App announced full integration into core ecosystem scenarios such as food delivery, payment, shopping, and transportation.

• Market Size: Expected to reach RMB 400 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 49.3% (highest growth rate)
• Commercialization Certainty: ★★★★☆ (Payment closed loop has been completed)
• Competitive Landscape: ★★★☆☆ (Relatively blue ocean market)

Wang Xiaochuan, founder of Baichuan Intelligent, stated that AI healthcare belongs to a “slow variable” track, which requires more time for technological maturity and commercialization verification [1]. JD Health has launched the “AI External Brain” for doctors, and 1,500 expert intelligent agents will reshape the diagnosis and treatment process.

• Market Size: Expected to reach RMB 280 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 51.8% (highest growth rate)
• Policy Support: ★★★★★ (Medical AI incorporated into national strategy)
• Risk Warning: Long track cycle and strict regulatory requirements

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As the only domestic company that ranks among the international first tier in four modalities: text, video, audio, and music, MiniMax’s commercialization path has distinct characteristics:

Period	Revenue (RMB 10,000)	YoY Growth Rate
2023	2,436	-
2024	21,400	+782.2%
First Three Quarters of 2025	37,600	+174%

• Talkie (overseas version of “Xingye”) has become a “cash cow”, generating US$187.5 million in revenue in the first 9 months of 2025, accounting for nearly 60% of revenue from AI native products
• With over 20 million monthly active users (MAUs), tapping into the global AI emotional companionship track which reached a scale of US$28.19 billion in 2024
• Number of open platform partners exceeded 100,000

1. High Loss Ratio:
   Adjusted net loss of RMB 1.3 billion in the first 9 months of 2025, with a loss ratio of -348.6%, and cumulative net loss exceeding RMB 3 billion

2. Over-Reliance on a Single Product:
   Revenue heavily relies on Talkie; overseas market is highly affected by regulatory policies, and the domestic version has only over 2 million MAUs

3. Customer Concentration Risk:
   Revenue from Mihoyo has remained a high proportion for a long time, with the two parties deeply bound in game scenarios

4. Valuation Bubble Controversy:
   Annual revenue of RMB 214 million corresponds to a valuation of over US$4 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of over 50x, far higher than the industry average of 20-30x

Zhipu AI focuses on government (G-end) and enterprise (B-end) markets, with the goal of building a standardized product system centered on MaaS (Model-as-a-Service) [1].

1. First-Mover Advantage:
   The status of “the first stock of global general-purpose large models” brings brand premium
2. Government and Enterprise Resources:
   Has profound accumulations in government and enterprise markets
3. Technology Layout:
   Zhipu Qingyan App has 1.21 million MAUs, the web version has 1.72 million MAUs, and the overseas z.ai has 2.65 million MAUs, totaling approximately 5.6 million MAUs

1. Competition in General-Purpose Large Models:
   Giants such as Baidu Ernie Bot and Alibaba Tongyi Qianwen continue to seize market share with advantages in computing power, traffic, and channels
2. Profitability to be Verified:
   As a general-purpose large model enterprise, the profit model is still under exploration
3. Growth Pressure:
   Facing the rapid rise of vertical players such as MiniMax

Dimension	MiniMax	OpenAI (Reference)	Anthropic (Reference)
Price-to-Sales Ratio	Over 40x	Approximately 41.5x	Approximately 39x
2025 Revenue	US$53.437 million	US$20 billion (annualized)	US$9 billion (annualized)
Commercialization Path	Consumer End, AI Native Products	Mixed B-end and Consumer End	Mixed B-end and Consumer End

From an international benchmarking perspective, MiniMax’s valuation level is close to that of OpenAI and Anthropic, reflecting the capital market’s recognition of the “growth premium” for large model enterprises [1].

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Priority	Scenario	Core Logic	Recommended Target Directions
★★★★★	Content Production	Mature technology, clear monetization	Kuaishou, ByteDance ecosystem
★★★★★	Intelligent Vehicles	Dual drivers of policy and market	Huawei ecosystem, intelligentization of automakers
★★★★☆	Local Services	New growth driven by Agent breakthroughs	Alibaba, Meituan
★★★★☆	Intelligent Healthcare	Long-term growth track	Baichuan Intelligent (pending listing)

• High short-term popularity; it is recommended to pay attention to entry opportunities after a pullback
• Focus on tracking the sustainability of Talkie’s overseas growth
• Beware of the risk of valuation bubble bursting

• Suitable for long-term allocation; pay attention to the landing of large government and enterprise orders
• Pay attention to the progress of strategic cooperation with Huawei’s Intelligent Vehicle Solution Business Unit (IVS BU) and others

1. Valuation Risk:
   Current valuations of AI companies generally overdraw growth expectations for the next 3-5 years
2. Regulatory Risk:
   Compliance requirements for AI-generated content and data security requirements continue to tighten
3. Technology Iteration Risk:
   Multimodal technology is iterating rapidly, and competitive advantages may be quickly eroded
4. Intensified Competition:
   Large models backed by industry giants continue to seize market share

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The AI industry is transitioning from “technology-driven” to “value-driven”, and

has become the core yardstick for measuring enterprise value. The Hong Kong listings of Zhipu AI and MiniMax mark the industry’s entry into a new stage of capitalization, and also provide investors with high-quality targets for deploying in AI vertical scenarios.

1. Content Production
   - Mature technology, the clearest monetization path
2. Intelligent Vehicles
   - Dual drivers of policy and market
3. Local Services
   - New growth driven by Agent
4. Intelligent Healthcare
   - Long-term growth track

• MiniMax has outstanding performance in the consumer-end AI native product field, but over-reliance on a single product and high loss ratios are major risks
• Zhipu AI has first-mover advantages in government/enterprise markets, and its profitability is to be verified
• The valuations of the two companies are close to international benchmarks, and the capital market has established recognition of the “growth premium” for large model enterprises

As of 2026, the AI industry has completed its transformation from a “technological concept” to a “social infrastructure”.

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[1] 21st Century Business Herald - “Zhipu AI and MiniMax Deliver Impressive Listing Performances, Piling Pressure on Other ‘Little Tigers’?” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260114/herald/e4dd26bc84b9bedb8be24d7c28e819ed.html)

[2] 36Kr - “2026 AI Best Scenario Penetration Case Selection Launched” (https://eu.36kr.com/zh/p/3649992196120969)

[3] The Paper - “In 2026, AI Shifts from ‘Frenzy’ to ‘Pragmatism’” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32414364)

[4] DoNews - “Taking on Zhipu AI? What Does MiniMax Rely On?” (https://www.donews.com/article/detail/8612/94520.html)

[5] Sina Finance - “2026 AI Best Scenario Penetration Case Selection Launched” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-20/doc-inhhxznr7135626.shtml)