In-Depth Analysis of Insider Stock Sales at TKO Group

I have now collected sufficient data to provide you with a comprehensive analysis.

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According to the latest SEC Form 4 filings, multiple insiders of TKO Group Holdings conducted stock transactions in January 2026 [0][1]:

Deputy Chief Financial Officer

Transaction Date	Transaction Type	Number of Shares	Price (USD)	Transaction Description
2026-01-20	Disposal upon RSU Vesting	2,768 shares	0	Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) vesting
2026-01-20	Sale	613 shares	203.77	Executed under 10b5-1 trading plan
2026-01-22	Sale	1,238 shares	201.98	Tax withholding following RSU vesting

• Conducted batch sales totaling approximately 15,916 shares on January 21, 2026
• Transaction price range: USD 197.74 to USD 204.39
• Executed under the 10b5-1 trading plan established on September 16, 2025

• Sold 7,744 shares on January 22, 2026
• Transaction price: USD 201.98
• Routine disposal following RSU vesting

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All of the insider stock sales were executed under pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, a key factor in evaluating the nature of the transactions [2].

• Insiders pre-establish sales plans during the company’s public trading window
• Specify transaction dates, price ranges, and share quantities
• Insiders must not possess material non-public information when establishing the plan
• Transactions are executed automatically, reducing suspicion of insider trading
• Typically synchronized with the vesting cycle of restricted stock units (RSUs)

When restricted stock units vest, employees are required to pay income tax on the appreciation portion. Selling a portion of the shares is a routine operation to meet tax withholding obligations [1].

Metric	Value
Market Capitalization	USD 16.444 billion [0]
Kapral Shane’s Sale Amount	Approximately USD 375,000
Percentage of Market Cap	Approximately 0.023%
Kapral’s Cumulative Sales in the Past 3 Months	Approximately USD 1.6 million

Relative to the company’s market capitalization and the potential shareholding scale of insiders, the current sale amount is relatively limited.

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According to the DCF model analysis by Jinling AI [0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	USD 310.06	+54.9%
Base Case Scenario	USD 464.29	+132.0%
Optimistic Scenario	USD 1,206.10	+502.7%
Weighted Average	USD 660.15	+229.9%

The DCF model shows that TKO Group’s intrinsic value is significantly higher than the current stock price, suggesting that the current market pricing may not fully reflect the company’s future growth potential.

Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E (TTM)	71.32x	Relatively High
P/B	4.27x	Medium Level
P/S	3.79x	Reasonable Range

TKO Group’s P/E multiple is higher than the market average, which reflects a premium pricing for investors’ expectations of high growth, but it also means that the valuation is more sensitive to underperformance relative to expectations.

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According to the Jinling AI Financial Analysis Model [0]:

Dimension	Assessment	Explanation
Debt Risk	Low Risk	Robust financial structure
Financial Stance	Mixed	Combination of prudence and aggressiveness
Cash Flow	Healthy	Positive FCF
Profitability	Good	High gross profit margin

TKO Group Holdings is a leading global sports entertainment company, with the following assets:

Business Segment	Brands/Assets	Notes
Mixed Martial Arts	UFC	World’s top MMA organization
Sports Entertainment	WWE	World’s leading professional wrestling brand
Sports Assets	IMG, On Location, PBR	Acquired in 2025

In 2025, TKO Group completed the acquisition of

assets from Endeavor Group Holdings, with a transaction value of USD 3.25 billion [3]. This acquisition significantly expanded the company’s sports content and experience business portfolio.

Quarter	EPS	Consensus Estimate	Deviation
Q1 FY2025	USD 0.69	-	-
Q2 FY2025	USD 1.17	-	-
Q3 FY2025	USD 0.50	USD 0.59	-14.68%
Q4 FY2025 (Estimated)	-	USD 0.16	To be announced

Q3 FY2025 performance slightly missed market expectations, and the Q4 earnings report will be released on February 25, 2025 [0].

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Metric	Value
Percentage of Buy Ratings	88.9% (16/18)
Hold Ratings	11.1% (2/18)
Consensus Target Price	USD 228.50
Relative to Current Price	+14.2%
Target Price Range	USD 210.00 - USD 251.00

• January 21, 2026:
  JP Morgan maintained an “Overweight” rating and raised its target price to USD 225
• December 2025:
  Multiple institutions (BTIG, Susquehanna, TD Cowen) maintained positive ratings

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According to the Jinling AI Technical Analysis Model [0]:

Indicator	Value/Status	Signal Interpretation
Current Price	USD 200.13	-
20-Day Moving Average	USD 207.22	Under Pressure
Support Level	USD 197.40	Key Support
Resistance Level	USD 207.22	Short-Term Pressure
MACD	No Crossover	Neutral to Weak
KDJ	K:36.5, D:40.7	Weak
RSI	Normal Range	Neutral
Beta	0.23	Low Volatility

The stock price is in a with an unclear short-term direction. Trading volume is below average, indicating relatively low market attention.

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• Tax-withholding sales triggered by RSU vesting
• Pre-set transactions under 10b5-1 plans
• Personal financial diversification needs

• Equity incentives account for a relatively high proportion of executive compensation
• Selling shares to realize partial asset liquidity

• Current P/E ratio is 71x, a historically high valuation level
• However, the DCF model indicates higher intrinsic value

Factor	Analysis
Nature of the Plan	Pre-established, not an ad-hoc decision
Transaction Scale	Negligible relative to market capitalization
Diversity of Sellers	Multiple executives sold simultaneously, more likely a routine arrangement
Time Window	Routine trading window before the release of Q4 earnings
Analyst Sentiment	Institutions maintain positive ratings

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• Insider sales ≠ negative signal
• Focus on whether transactions are conducted under 10b5-1 plans
• Evaluate the proportion of sale amount to insider holdings and market capitalization

• UFC is about to conduct
  new media rights negotiations
  , with an expected value of billions of USD [3]
• Integration progress of newly acquired assets
• Q4 earnings guidance

• Current stock price is below DCF intrinsic value
• However, the high P/E ratio makes the valuation sensitive to performance

Risk Type	Details
Performance Risk	Q3 performance missed expectations; Q4 may continue to face pressure
Valuation Risk	High P/E ratio is sensitive to performance shortfalls
Media Rights Risk	Outcome of new UFC media rights negotiations
Integration Risk	Synergies from newly acquired assets
Market Risk	Impact of broader market fluctuations on the stock price

Dimension	Assessment
Fundamentals	Robust, with continuous expansion of business portfolio
Valuation	Relatively high but supported by growth
Technicals	Sideways consolidation, awaiting a breakout
Insider Transactions	Routine plan execution, no abnormalities
Institutional Sentiment	Positive, 88.9% Buy rating

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The stock sales by Deputy CFO Kapral Shane and other executives are primarily routine transactions executed under 10b5-1 trading plans, used to meet tax withholding obligations following the vesting of restricted stock units.

1. Transaction Nature:
   Routine tax planning and financial diversification, not active bearish sentiment
2. Valuation Judgment:
   The DCF model shows that intrinsic value is significantly higher than the current stock price, with fundamentals supporting the stock price performance
3. Risk Warnings:
   Pay attention to the upcoming Q4 earnings guidance and the progress of UFC media rights negotiations
4. Investment Strategy:
   Current valuation is attractive; it is recommended to focus on earnings data and business integration progress

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Real-time quotes, company profile, financial analysis, DCF valuation, technical analysis for TKO Group Holdings (2026-01-23)

[1] SEC.gov - Form 4: Statement of changes in beneficial ownership (Kapral Shane) (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526019931/0001193125-26-019931.txt)

[2] SEC.gov - Form 4: Statement of changes in beneficial ownership (Seth D. Krauss) (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526019930/0001193125-26-019930.txt)

[3] TKO Group Investor Relations - TKO Completes Acquisition of Sports Assets From Endeavor (https://investor.tkogrp.com/news/news-details/2025/TKO-Completes-Acquisition-of-Sports-Assets-From-Endeavor/default.aspx)

[4] Simply Wall St - Will Insider Sales and Loftier Sponsorship Targets Change TKO Outlook (https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-tko/tko-group-holdings/news/will-insider-sales-and-loftier-sponsorship-targets-change-tk)

[5] MMA Fighting - UFC owners at TKO Group Holdings acquire new assets from Endeavor in $3.25 billion deal (https://www.mmafighting.com/2024/10/24/24278664/ufc-owners-at-tko-group-holdings-acquire-new-assets-from-endeavor-in-3-25-billion-deal)