Analysis of the Impact of 22% Growth in Online Service Consumption on Valuation of Hong Kong-listed Local Life Platforms

Based on collected data and market information, I now present a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that China’s online service consumption exhibited strong growth in 2025 [1]. This growth is mainly driven by three key segments:

Segment	Growth Rate	Beneficiary Hong Kong-listed Platforms
Sports Event Ticketing	63.3%	Trip.com, Meituan
Travel Products	40.6%	Trip.com (core beneficiary)
In-store Catering	23.7%	Meituan (core beneficiary)
Overall Online Services	22.0%	Both platforms benefit

This growth trend indicates that local life services are undergoing a transition from “traffic dividend” to “consumption deepening” [2]. Notably, the online penetration rate of in-store catering is currently only 8.9%, indicating enormous growth potential for the industry [3].

According to iResearch’s forecast, the market size of China’s local life services is expected to exceed

in 2025, with a CAGR of 12.6%, and the online penetration rate is projected to rise to 30.8% [4]. This growth trend provides a solid performance support foundation for Hong Kong-listed local life platforms.

(as of January 23, 2026):

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Current Stock Price	$97.70	-
Market Capitalization	$596.64 Billion	Among top Hong Kong-listed tech stocks
P/E Ratio (TTM)	18.65x	Higher than historical average
52-Week Price Range	$94.05 - $189.60	At the lower end of the range
Average Daily Trading Volume	45 Million Shares	Sufficient liquidity

[0]:

Valuation Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative	$401.24	+310.5%
Base Case	$589.46	+503.0%
Optimistic	$1,333.00	+1,263.7%
Weighted Average	$774.57	+692.4%

[0]:

• Debt Risk
  : Low
• Financial Stance
  : Neutral (no aggressive or conservative accounting treatments)
• Free Cash Flow
  : $46.15 Billion (latest fiscal year)

:

1. In-store Business
   : Meituan’s in-store business has significant advantages in user-generated content, merchant resources, user mindshare, and marketing efficiency [5]
2. Super Membership System Upgrade
   : High-frequency food delivery users are guided to more profitable in-store consumption
3. Instant Retail
   : Flash sales daily orders exceed 10 million, with a peak of 16 million orders during Qixi Festival [6]

:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Current Stock Price	$487.00	-
Market Capitalization	$318.3 Billion	Leading online travel platform
P/E Ratio (TTM)	16.81x	Significantly lower than international peers
ROE	20.60%	Industry-leading
Net Profit Margin	52.16%	Excellent profitability

[0]:

Quarter	Actual EPS	Expected EPS	Beat Margin	Revenue	Expected Revenue
Q3 FY2025	$30.12	$8.79	+242.66%	$20.04 Billion	$19.87 Billion
Q2 FY2025	$7.80	-	-	$16.24 Billion	-
Q1 FY2025	$6.51	-	-	$14.76 Billion	-

[1]:

Company	P/E Ratio (x)	Remarks
Trip.com (9961.HK)	18.5	Current lowest valuation
Booking	18.8	International peer
Airbnb	25.3	International peer
Meituan (3690.HK)	22.6	Domestic peer
Fliggy (Alibaba)	20.1	Domestic peer

This indicates that Trip.com has a valuation discount of approximately 10%-37%, with significant re-rating potential.

The explosive growth of sports event ticketing has a

on platform valuation:

1. Incremental Revenue Contribution
   : As a high-margin category, ticketing business directly improves overall profit margin
2. Increased User Activity
   : High consumption frequency of sports events enhances user stickiness
3. Cross-selling Opportunities
   : Ticketing users may be converted into catering and accommodation consumers

Trip.com has an early layout in the sports tourism segment and is expected to be the core beneficiary of this trend.

The 40.6% high growth of travel products has the most significant boosting effect on Trip.com’s valuation:

:

• Revenue Growth Expectation
  : 40.6% growth in travel products directly raises revenue expectations
• Profit Margin Improvement
  : Travel products (especially high-end travel) have high gross margins
• Market Share Enhancement
  : Trip.com holds a 54.7% share of the online travel market [7]

: Trip.com’s stock price has been relatively resilient recently, with a 3-year gain of +56.6% and a 5-year gain of +73.59%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index.

The 23.7% growth of in-store catering supports Meituan’s valuation in the following aspects:

1. Stable Core Business
   : In-store catering is Meituan’s traditional advantageous business with high growth certainty
2. Profit Contribution
   : The profit margin of in-store business is significantly higher than that of food delivery business
3. Competitive Defense
   : Growth helps consolidate market position and resist the impact of new entrants like Douyin

Platform	P/E Ratio (x)	P/S Ratio (x)	Analyst Rating
Meituan (3690.HK)	18.65	1.47	SELL
Trip.com (9961.HK)	16.81	4.75	BUY

[0]:

• Current Price: $97.80
• Trend Judgment:
  Sideways Consolidation
  (no clear direction)
• Key Support Level: $96.41
• Key Resistance Level: $101.76
• KDJ Indicator: Oversold Opportunity (K:12.8, D:17.4)
• MACD: Death Cross, Bearish

[0]:

• Current Price: $487.60
• Trend Judgment:
  Sideways Consolidation
• Key Support Level: $478.15
• Key Resistance Level: $545.94
• KDJ Indicator: Bearish (K:23.9, D:28.8)
• MACD: Death Cross, Bearish

:

1. Valuation Advantage
   : 16.81x PE is significantly lower than international peers (Booking 18.8x, Airbnb 25.3x) [1]
2. Growth Certainty
   : 40.6% growth in travel products directly benefits core business
3. Profitability
   : 52.16% net profit margin and 20.60% ROE are both top-tier in the industry
4. Analyst Consensus
   : 94.7% of analysts give a “BUY” rating [0]

:

1. Valuation Discount
   : Current price is discounted by approximately 83% compared to DCF base case scenario [0]
2. Business Diversification
   : Covers multiple segments including food delivery, in-store services, hotel & travel, and instant retail
3. Competitive Pressure
   : Faces challenges from new entrants like Douyin and Alibaba [3]
4. Short-term Pressure
   : Weak stock performance in 2025 (annual decline of approximately 35.9%), but long-term growth logic remains unchanged

Catalyst	Expected Impact	Time Window
Increase in Online Penetration (8.9% → 30%)	Doubling of revenue growth	2026-2028
Lower-tier Market Development	300-400 million new users	Ongoing
Industry Consolidation	Higher concentration benefits leading platforms	2026
Macroeconomic Recovery	Increased consumer willingness	H2 2026

Risk Type	Details	Impact Level
Competitive Risk	Douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu continue to expand in local life services [3]	Medium-High
Regulatory Risk	Policies on food delivery rider social security, platform anti-monopoly, etc.	Medium
Macroeconomic Risk	Consumption downgrade affecting average transaction value	Medium
Pandemic Recurrence Risk	Affects offline in-store consumption	Low

1. The 22% growth in online service consumption constitutes a substantial positive catalyst for the valuation of Hong Kong-listed local life platforms
   , among which:
   • 40.6% growth in travel products benefits Trip.com the most
   • 23.7% growth in in-store catering directly supports Meituan’s core business

2. Trip.com has greater valuation re-rating potential
   :
   • Current valuation is at a historical low (16.81x PE)
   • Financial performance continues to exceed expectations (Q3 EPS beat expectations by 242%)
   • Broad incremental space in sports tourism

3. Meituan has prominent long-term value, but faces short-term competitive pressure
   :
   • DCF valuation indicates approximately 500% upside potential
   • Need to pay attention to changes in competitive landscape and effects of organizational structure adjustments

Target	Investment Rating	Target Price Range	Core Logic
Trip.com (9961.HK)	BUY	$550-$650	Low valuation + high growth + strong profitability
Meituan (3690.HK)	HOLD	$120-$180	Prominent long-term value, but need to wait for clear competitive landscape

: This report is for investment reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and the latest market information.

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database (real-time market data, DCF valuation analysis, financial analysis, technical analysis)

[1] Half Highlights, Half Shadows: Was Trip.com a Success or Failure in the Past Year? - ITiger (https://www.itiger.com/news/2600023100)

[2] Meituan Releases “2025 Life Service Consumption Trend Insight”: “Emotional Value for Money” Consumption Becomes a New Trend - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/hk/2026-01-22/doc-inhieikv7359775.shtml)

[3] 2025: Local Life Services From Red Ocean to “Blood Ocean” - Huxiu (https://m.huxiu.com/article/4029449.html)

[4] Local Life Services 2025: Traffic Recedes, Emergence of Ecosystem - DoNews (https://www.donews.com/news/detail/1/6368454.html)

[5] In-depth Report on Meituan-W (3690.HK): “Search Engine” of Local Life Services - Cinda Securities (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202204071557837048_1.pdf)

[6] Meituan’s Trillion RMB Return and Re-rating Momentum - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/hk/2025-03-01/doc-inenchkp4775576.shtml)

[7] Xiaohongshu Expands in Local Life Services: Another Piece of the Commercialization Puzzle Ahead of IPO? - Yicai Global (https://www.yicai.com/news/102846837.html)