Analysis of Pop Mart's "Electronic Wooden Fish" Phenomenon: A Study on the Sustainability of Social Media-Driven IP Marketing

On January 22, 2026, the “PUCKY Tap Tap Series” plush keychain blind box launched by Pop Mart went viral on social media rapidly due to its built-in “Electronic Wooden Fish” function [1][2]. By tapping the head of the product, users can hear a crisp wooden fish sound, and it comes with label stickers such as “Happiness +1” and “Wealth +1”, which precisely caters to the needs of contemporary young people seeking emotional release and psychological comfort [3]. From a business perspective, this product has successfully achieved three breakthroughs:

, it combines the traditional cultural symbol “wooden fish” with a modern trendy toy carrier, creating a unique interactive experience. The traditional wooden fish, as a Buddhist practice utensil, symbolizes inner peace and self-reflection; in the contemporary context, the “electronic wooden fish” has been given the new connotation of “cyber blessing” by young people, becoming a new carrier for relieving work pressure and obtaining emotional value [1]. This ability to modernize traditional cultural elements reflects Pop Mart’s profound insight into the psychological needs of young consumer groups.

, the viral path of this product presents typical social media-driven characteristics. After purchasing, consumers share the process of “tapping the wooden fish” on short-video platforms, forming a viral transmission effect [3]. This spontaneous UGC content creation not only reduces brand marketing costs but also achieves exponential growth in product exposure. From a communication perspective, the “electronic wooden fish” has inherent entertainment attributes and topic value, which easily stimulates users’ desire for secondary creation and sharing.

, it is worth noting that “PUCKY” is not a new IP, but an established IP under Pop Mart [1]. Through this product innovation, the company has successfully revalued the value of the old IP and activated its traffic. This proves that Pop Mart has the ability to “revitalize existing IPs” in IP operation, rather than simply relying on new IP development. The company has completed the registration of the “PUCKY” trademark in multiple international classes such as jewelry and watches, convenience foods, and fuel oils [3], demonstrating its strategic layout for the diversified extension of this IP.

From the perspective of financial data, Pop Mart has achieved astonishing performance growth in the past few years [0]:

Financial Indicator	2024 Data	YoY Change
Operating Revenue	RMB 13.04 billion	+107.0%
Net Profit	RMB 3.13 billion	+189.8%
Gross Margin	66.8%	+9.0pct
Net Profit Margin	25.4%	+46.8%
ROE	54.52%	Significantly Improved

. In 2024, after the company reclassified its product lines, it formed a consumption closed-loop consisting of figurines (core collectibles), plush toys (mass-market play), MEGA (high-end collectibles), and derivatives (daily penetration) [4]. Among them, the vinyl plush category performed particularly well, with its revenue surging 1289% to RMB 2.83 billion in 2024, and its sales share rising sharply from 3.2% to 21.7% [4]. The high growth of the plush category is consistent with the viral success of the “electronic wooden fish” product, indicating that the company’s innovative investment in the plush track is gaining market returns.

. Benefiting from reduced procurement costs brought by supply chain optimization and improved period expense ratios under economies of scale, the company’s gross margin and net profit margin have hit record highs [4]. More importantly, the inventory turnover days decreased from 133 days in 2023 to 102 days, showing a significant improvement in operational capabilities [4]. This efficiency optimization lays a foundation for the company to maintain a cost advantage in fierce competition.

Based on the DCF valuation model [0]:

Valuation Scenario	Intrinsic Value	vs Current Price
Conservative Scenario	HK$81.37	-62.8%
Baseline Scenario	HK$309.75	+41.4%
Optimistic Scenario	HK$504.33	+130.3%

The current share price of HK$219 corresponds to approximately 41% upside potential in the baseline scenario. The market’s expected compound annual growth rate for the company over the next 5 years is about 50.9%, which is based on the assumption that the company can continue to replicate blockbuster IPs and promote global expansion [0].

: The revenue forecast range is RMB 41 billion to RMB 101.9 billion, with a median of approximately RMB 73.7 billion; the EPS forecast range is US$7.26 to US$25.67, with a median of approximately US$17.16 [0]. This indicates that the market remains optimistic about the company’s long-term development, but at the same time, it is concerned about whether the company can maintain its high growth pace.

Pop Mart has built a systematic IP incubation and operation system, whose core capabilities are reflected in the following dimensions [4][5]:

. Through global artist exploration, the company has formed a strong IP source supply capability. Through diversified methods such as signing, acquisition, incubation, and co-branding, Pop Mart has built a rich IP matrix [4]. As of 2024, the company has owned more than 20 self-owned IPs, and in 2024, 4 IPs achieved revenue exceeding RMB 1 billion, 13 IPs achieved revenue exceeding RMB 100 million, and the revenue share of self-owned IPs increased to 85.3% [4].

. The company has established multiple official WeChat groups to facilitate the formation of user social circles, and enhances user stickiness through refined member operation [4]. As of the end of 2024, the number of members reached 46.083 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, the member revenue contribution rate reached as high as 92.7%, and the repurchase rate remained at around 50% [4]. This high-stickiness member ecosystem provides a stable traffic base for product sales.

. The mechanism design of Pop Mart’s blind boxes precisely fits consumer psychology – regular blind boxes have different themes, each theme contains 12 or 6 different designs, and there is a special hidden design [4]. The sense of unknown brought by the moment of unboxing triggers strong emotional fluctuations, and the hidden design mechanism adds a sense of surprise. This unpredictability effectively stimulates fun and repeat purchase behavior, promoting high-frequency consumption [4].

From the perspective of business model, whether the “electronic wooden fish” phenomenon can be converted into sustained performance growth depends on the following key factors:

, first, the trend of emotional consumption provides broad growth space for the trendy toy industry. Generation Z (born 1995-2009), defined as a generation that grew up with the internet, currently has a population of approximately 230 million, accounting for 17% of China’s total population, and is gradually becoming the main consumer force [4]. In 2024, China’s per capita GDP reached US$13,500, and the consumption purpose of the younger generation is no longer limited to practicality, but increasingly values the experience brought by consumption, which opens up broad space for emotional consumption [4].

Second, the demand for emotional relief brought by rising social pressure is also an important driving force. The younger generation generally faces high-intensity work pressure, and they are often in a solitary space after work with a narrow social circle and lack of companionship, leading to strong demand for emotional consumption [4]. Trendy toys have both collection and emotional sustenance functions, can provide emotional resonance and personality expression, and have become an important carrier for releasing emotions and obtaining healing energy.

Third, the company has demonstrated an IP matrix-driven growth model. In the past few years, the company has had almost two to three IPs achieve more than double-digit growth every year [5]. In the first half of 2025, except for the new IP “Star Man” which has no comparable data, among the top 7 IPs that contributed 77% of total revenue, 6 achieved more than double-digit growth [5]. This diversified IP matrix reduces the impact of fluctuations in a single IP on overall performance.

, it is necessary to be alert to the company’s over-reliance on a single IP. In the first half of 2025, the revenue of THE MONSTERS series centered on LABUBU reached RMB 4.814 billion, accounting for 34.7% of the company’s total revenue [6]. When a single IP series contributes more than one-third of revenue, its popularity fluctuations directly affect the company’s valuation logic [6]. The previous market performance of the Mini LABUBU product failed to replicate the success of LABUBU, indicating that the replicability of IP popularity still has uncertainties [6].

In addition, the investment intensity in IP is relatively insufficient. As of the end of 2024, Pop Mart has invested approximately RMB 300 million in IPs, accounting for less than 3% of the RMB 11.12 billion revenue from artist IPs in 2024 [6]. In contrast, Disney’s content cost investment in fiscal year 2023 exceeded US$27 billion, accounting for more than 30% of its total revenue [6]. This gap indicates that the company still has room for improvement in in-depth IP development.

From a technical analysis perspective [0], Pop Mart currently exhibits the following characteristics:

: The latest closing price is HK$218.60, and the stock price is in the consolidation range between HK$195.47 (support level) and HK$223.69 (resistance level) [0]. The current price is above the 20-day moving average (HK$195.47) and 50-day moving average (HK$201.34), and the short-term technical pattern is bullish.

: The MACD indicator shows no crossover signal but is bullish, and the KDJ indicator has a K value of 73.0, D value of 56.7, and J value of 105.6, indicating that it is in the overbought area in the short term [0]. Comprehensive judgment shows that the stock price is in a sideways consolidation pattern, with no clear trending direction.

: Recent trading volume has increased significantly. On January 22, the day the “electronic wooden fish” went viral, and the following day, the stock price rose by 6.31% and 4.25% respectively, showing the market’s positive response to this event [0]. However, investors need to pay attention to the sustainability of this event-driven rise.

It is worth noting that Pop Mart has experienced severe fluctuations in history. From February 2021 to October 2022, affected by the global interest rate hike cycle, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index fell by more than 50% and 70% respectively, and Pop Mart’s stock price once fell by 90% [5]. Recently (October 2025), the company’s stock price has fallen by approximately 40% from its high, mainly due to market concerns about growth sustainability [5][6].

: The core question the market is asking is – can LABUBU’s “magic” be replicated? In 2026, if Pop Mart cannot come up with a convincing “next LABUBU”, the capital market’s doubts about growth sustainability will further ferment [6]. At that time, the company may have to accept a switch in the valuation system from “high-growth trendy toy leader” to “mature consumer goods company” – which means lower valuation multiples [6].

The success factors of Pop Mart’s social media-driven marketing model can be summarized as follows:

: The company has the product innovation capability to quickly respond to market hotspots. The launch timing of the “electronic wooden fish” coincided with the time when consumers sought psychological comfort at the end of the year and beginning of the year, and the product function design has inherent social communication attributes [1][2][3].

: The company has built an omni-channel coverage system online and offline, with a complete member system and mature community operation [4]. This channel advantage ensures that products can quickly reach target consumer groups and provides a smooth path for converting social media traffic into sales.

: The company has built a diversified IP library by discovering trendy artists and designers globally, and its brand influence continues to increase [4]. The endorsement effects of international celebrities such as top star Lisa, Thai Princess, and Premier League star David Beckham have further strengthened the brand momentum [4].

However, the social media-driven marketing model also has inherent limitations:

: Social media hotspots change rapidly, and the popularity of a single product is often difficult to sustain. Taking Mini LABUBU as an example, this series only remained popular for a week before its price fell sharply [6]. Whether the “electronic wooden fish” can break this pattern remains to be observed in subsequent market performance.

: When more and more brands adopt similar marketing strategies, user attention will be diluted, and marketing effects will decline.

: Social media communication has an obvious Matthew effect – a few products can achieve viral transmission, while most products struggle to gain sufficient exposure. This uncertainty increases the difficulty of business forecasting.

Whether the viral success of the “electronic wooden fish” can be converted into actual performance growth depends on the following key conversion paths:

: In the short term, the viral success of this product will directly drive sales growth of the PUCKY series. The company has completed multi-category trademark registration for “PUCKY” [3], laying the foundation for subsequent product line expansion.

: As free advertising communication, this viral success has brought huge brand exposure opportunities to Pop Mart. It is estimated that the reading volume and discussion volume of related topics on social media have reached hundreds of millions [1][2][3], and this exposure value is difficult to measure in monetary terms.

: The traffic activation of the old IP proves the maturity of the company’s IP operation system, which helps to enhance the capital market’s confidence in the company’s IP incubation capabilities.

if the company cannot continue to launch products with similar communication attributes, this traffic dividend may fade quickly. Investors should closely follow the market performance of subsequent products to verify whether the company has the ability to continuously create “blockbusters”.

Based on the above analysis, we make the following judgments on the sustainability of Pop Mart’s social media-driven IP marketing model:

: Above medium. The trend of emotional consumption provides structural growth opportunities for the industry, and the company’s competitive advantages in IP operation, member system, and channel network remain solid. However, the inherent limitations of the social media-driven model and over-reliance on a single IP are still risks that need attention.

: Positive. The viral success of the “electronic wooden fish” will bring considerable short-term sales growth to the company, and the improvement of brand exposure value will help consolidate its market position. However, investors should view event-driven growth rationally and avoid excessive optimism.

: Depends on whether the company can evolve from a “blockbuster creator” to an “IP incubator” [6]. This not only requires continuous launch of new IPs with global influence but also requires breakthroughs in the depth and breadth of IP investment.

: The current share price of HK$219 corresponds to the intrinsic value of HK$309.75 in the DCF baseline scenario, with approximately 41% upside potential [0]. However, considering the company’s challenges in growth certainty, it is recommended that investors maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude.

:

• Aggressive investors
  : Can accumulate positions on dips, set a stop-loss level of HK$185 (close to the 50-day moving average), to seek subsequent upside potential.
• Conservative investors
  : It is recommended to wait for clearer trend signals, such as the stock price effectively breaking through the resistance level of HK$223.69 before entering the market.
• Low-risk tolerance investors
  : It is recommended to wait and see, and make decisions after paying attention to the company’s subsequent product releases and performance.

: LABUBU contributes more than one-third of revenue. If the popularity of this IP declines, it may have a significant impact on the company’s performance [6].

: If the market’s growth expectations for the company fail to materialize, the valuation multiple may switch from “high growth” to “mature consumption”, leading to a sharp correction in the stock price [6].

: The optional consumption attribute makes the company’s performance highly correlated with the macroeconomic cycle, and reduced consumer willingness during economic downturns may affect sales.

: Competitors such as TOP TOY under Miniso, 12 Culture, and Cool Toy are actively laying out, and industry competition may intensify [6].

: The proportion of overseas business continues to increase, and exchange rate fluctuations may affect performance denominated in RMB.

The viral success of Pop Mart’s “electronic wooden fish” product is another successful verification of the company’s social media-driven IP marketing model. This product precisely fits the emotional consumption needs of contemporary young people, demonstrating the company’s core capabilities in product innovation and IP operation.

From a sustainability perspective, this marketing model has strong explosive power in the short term, but its long-term sustainability remains to be observed. The company needs to prove its ability to continuously create “blockbusters”, while reducing its over-reliance on a single IP, to truly evolve from a “blockbuster creator” to an “IP incubator”.

Financial fundamentals show that the company is still on a high-growth track, and although the valuation is relatively high, it still has support. Technical analysis shows that the stock price is in a consolidation pattern, with a bullish short-term trend but no clear direction. Investors can keep an eye on it and wait for clearer trend signals before making investment decisions.

: The viral success of the “electronic wooden fish” demonstrates Pop Mart’s IP operation capabilities, but whether it can convert accidental “blockbusters” into a sustainable “methodology” will be the key to determining the company’s long-term investment value.

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[1] Beijing Daily - Behind the Viral “Electronic Wooden Fish” on Hot Searches: Capturing Emotional Needs to Revitalize an Established IP (https://news.bjd.com.cn/2026/01/23/11541786.shtml)

[2] Sohu - Behind the Viral “Electronic Wooden Fish” on Hot Searches: Capturing Emotional Needs to Revitalize an Established IP (https://m.sohu.com/a/979171231_163278)

[3] Tencent News - The “Electronic Wooden Fish” Goes Viral! Pop Mart’s Stock Price Rebounds After Halving, Catering to Workers’ Needs? (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260122A06YOO00)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - Discovering 10-Bagger Stocks: Starting with Pop Mart (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20250604/herald/da66e45f28465ba5150881eabf5e1153.html)

[5] Investment Journal - Was Pop Mart Wrongly Oversold? (https://news.pedaily.cn/202512/559317.shtml)

[6] Jiemian News - Mini LABUBU Fails to Sustain Pop Mart’s Momentum (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13581316.html)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Pop Mart (9992.HK) Real-Time Quotes, Financial Analysis and Technical Indicators