Analysis of Guosheng Technology (603778.SH) - A Trending Stock: Extreme Volatility and Regulatory Risk Warning

Guosheng Technology (603778.SH) made it to the trending list on January 23, 2026, becoming a focus of market attention. After experiencing 5 consecutive limit-downs, the stock staged an extreme “floor-to-ceiling” rally on January 22, surging straight from the limit-down price of RMB 14.73 to the limit-up price of RMB 18.01, with a turnover of over RMB 2.41 billion [1][2]. Meanwhile, the company released a performance forecast on January 20, projecting a net loss of RMB 325 million to RMB 650 million in 2025, representing a significant year-on-year expansion of losses [4][5][6]. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has taken self-regulatory measures including suspending account trading against investors involved in relevant abnormal trading activities [3][8]. The company’s stock price surged by approximately 480%-674% in 2025, with its market capitalization skyrocketing from RMB 2.6 billion to a peak of RMB 18.2 billion; its current market capitalization is approximately RMB 12.4 billion [1][2][7].

: The stock’s fundamentals are continuing to deteriorate, its price has severely deviated from its intrinsic value, and regulatory risks are high. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach.

Guosheng Technology is an enterprise focused on the photovoltaic (PV) new energy sector, with its main business covering the R&D, production, and sales of heterojunction (HJT) PV cells and modules. In recent years, the company has actively expanded into new energy tracks such as solid-state batteries, attempting to seek new growth drivers through cross-sector transformation [7]. However, from the perspective of actual operational results, the total investment in the HJT capacity expansion plan disclosed by the company and its affiliated parties amounts to as much as RMB 90 billion, but only 0.5GW of cell capacity and 4.75GW of HJT module capacity have actually been put into production, leading to doubts that “commitments far exceed actual delivery” [8]. This phenomenon of “promising more than delivering” reflects a significant gap between the company’s capital operations and the actual implementation of its industrial projects, and also laid the groundwork for the subsequent surge and crash of its stock price.

The entire PV industry is facing the dilemma of structural overcapacity, with module prices remaining at a low level. This is the external environmental factor contributing to the decline in Guosheng Technology’s main business revenue and profitability [4][5]. Against the backdrop of a downturn in industry prosperity, there is significant uncertainty as to whether the company’s cross-sector new energy strategy can be truly implemented and generate substantial returns. More critically, the company’s cross-sector investments are based on “tight cash flow and targets that are either unoperated or in the initial stage”, and it is currently difficult to determine whether this is a genuine strategic transformation or just “storytelling” for the capital market [7].

The recent stock price movement of Guosheng Technology can be regarded as a classic example of a “meme stock”, with its volatility range and frequency exceeding normal market parameters. Looking at the timeline:

, the stock price rose continuously, with a cumulative increase of up to 674% and an astonishing turnover rate of 1101.87% [7]. This surge lacked fundamental support and stood in stark contrast to the overall downturn of the PV industry, showing obvious characteristics of being driven by capital. On January 7, 2026, the company applied for a trading suspension for stock price abnormal fluctuation verification [3]. After resuming trading, it hit an all-time high of RMB 27.72 on January 14, before entering a sharp decline phase [3].

, the stock price recorded 5 consecutive limit-downs, with trading volume shrinking sharply [4]. Just when the market thought the speculation was over, , a dramatic reversal occurred: the stock price surged straight from the limit-down price of RMB 14.73 per share to the limit-up price of RMB 18.01 per share, staging a standard “floor-to-ceiling” rally, with a turnover rate of as high as 23.82% and turnover exceeding RMB 2.41 billion on the day [1][2]. This extreme intraday reversal immediately attracted high market attention and made the stock a focus on the trending list.

However, the stock’s performance on

once again exposed the intention of speculative capital to exit. After rebounding by approximately 5% in the morning session, the net outflow of main capital reached RMB 426 million, with trading volume of RMB 2.063 billion and a turnover rate of 18.06% [7]. Notably, the main capital had a net inflow of RMB 342 million on January 22, which turned into a net outflow on January 23. This “quick in, quick out” operation pattern clearly indicates the arbitrage intention of short-term hot money [2][7].

On the evening of January 20, 2026, the company released its 2025 annual performance forecast, with core data as follows [4][5][6]:

Financial Indicator	2025 Forecast	Prior Year Period	Trend
Net Attributable Profit	RMB 325 million - RMB 650 million loss	Loss	Significant Expansion
Net Attributable Profit After Non-Recurring Items	RMB 314 million - RMB 639 million loss	Loss	Significant Expansion
Q4 Single-Quarter Loss	Expected to exceed the sum of the first three quarters	-	Significant Deterioration

The company explained that the main reasons for the loss are

, which has kept module prices at a low level, leading to a decrease in main business revenue and declining profitability, as well as the provision of inventory write-downs and long-term asset impairment provisions [4][5]. Notably, this marks the sixth consecutive year that the company has recorded a loss, and the trend of continuous deterioration in its fundamentals has not been effectively curbed.

More critically, the coexistence of revenue growth and expanding losses at the company is worthy of deep reflection. This may indicate that the company has adopted a volume-over-price strategy, or that it has issues such as ineffective cost control or out-of-control expenses. In either case, it shows that the company’s operating condition has not improved along with the recovery expectations of the PV industry, and there is a serious divergence between its fundamentals and stock price movement.

On the evening of January 14, 2026,

, clearly stating that some investors engaged in abnormal trading activities that affected the normal order of stock trading during transactions of Guosheng Technology. The exchange has taken self-regulatory measures including against relevant investors [3][8]. This is a direct intervention signal from regulators in response to “meme stock” speculation, conveying a tough stance on maintaining market trading order.

The SSE notice also pointed out that from October 15, 2025 to January 14, 2026, Guosheng Technology’s stock price rose by a cumulative 674%, triggering 5 stock price abnormal fluctuation alerts and 1 severe abnormal fluctuation alert during this period [3]. Such a situation of repeatedly triggering abnormal fluctuation alerts is extremely rare in the A-share market, which is not surprising given the high attention it has attracted from regulators.

From the perspective of regulatory developments, the SSE’s penalty measures may only be the beginning. If more serious market manipulation is discovered in subsequent investigations, relevant responsible persons and institutions may face more severe administrative penalties or even criminal liability. For investors, the continuous intensification of regulatory risks will exert continuous downward pressure on the stock’s performance.

Guosheng Technology’s stock movement perfectly illustrates the speculation logic of “meme stocks” in the A-share market, with its core characteristics including:

The company has recorded losses for six consecutive years, with its projected 2025 loss hitting a record high, yet its stock price surged nearly 7-fold in one year. This paradox of “worse performance, higher stock price” is essentially a capital-driven zero-sum game, which will inevitably end with retail investors taking over at high prices.

As evidenced by the fact that Founder Securities’ Hangzhou Nanshan Road Branch ranked first with a purchase amount of RMB 119 million, the buying side is mainly dominated by hot money [7]. These funds use their information and capital advantages to deliberately create extreme market conditions to attract retail investors to follow suit, and then distribute their shares at high prices. The net outflow of main capital of RMB 426 million on the day after the “floor-to-ceiling” rally on January 22 clearly demonstrates the arbitrage nature of hot money’s “quick in, quick out” approach [7].

The company has expanded into new energy tracks such as solid-state batteries and lithium batteries. Although it is difficult to generate substantial performance in the short term, this provides rich speculative materials for the capital market. This model of “telling transformation stories - driving up stock prices - cashing out at high prices” is common in the A-share market.

The entire PV industry is facing the dilemma of structural overcapacity, with module prices remaining at a low level. This is the external environmental factor contributing to the decline in Guosheng Technology’s main business revenue and profitability [4][5]. Since 2024, prices across all links of the PV industry chain have continued to decline, with module prices falling by more than 50% from their peak, putting pressure on the overall profitability of the industry. Against this backdrop, even leading enterprises are facing significant operating pressure, let alone Guosheng Technology, which is smaller in scale and less competitive.

However, the industry dilemma is not unique to Guosheng Technology; the entire PV sector is in a phase of valuation compression. In such an environment, Guosheng Technology’s stock price surged nearly 7-fold against the trend, which is clearly not based on expectations of improved industry fundamentals, but purely on capital speculation. When the tide recedes, such stocks lacking fundamental support tend to fall even deeper.

The total investment in the HJT capacity expansion plan disclosed by Guosheng Technology and its affiliated parties amounts to as much as RMB 90 billion, but only 0.5GW of cell capacity and 4.75GW of HJT module capacity have actually been put into production [8]. This huge gap between commitments and reality exposes the suspicion that the company’s capital operations are just “drawing castles in the air”.

For investors, it is important to be vigilant: against the backdrop of overall overcapacity in the PV industry, even the already commissioned production capacity faces issues such as insufficient utilization and fierce price competition. The so-called “RMB 90 billion capacity expansion plan” is more like a beautiful story woven for the capital market rather than a feasible business plan.

Risk Type	Risk Level	Risk Description
Valuation Risk	Extremely High	Severe divergence between stock price and fundamentals; market capitalization was once hyped up to RMB 18.2 billion, currently around RMB 12.4 billion, lacking performance support
Regulatory Risk	High	The SSE has explicitly identified the stock and taken measures to suspend relevant account trading; more stringent regulatory measures may be imposed
Performance Risk	High	Six consecutive years of losses; performance is difficult to reverse against the backdrop of industry overcapacity
Liquidity Risk	High	Extreme stock price volatility and extremely high turnover rate make it difficult for retail investors to time their trades
Information Asymmetry Risk	Medium-High	Authenticity of cross-sector investments is questionable; there may be incomplete information disclosure issues
High Pledge Risk	Medium	Controlling shareholder has a high proportion of pledged shares, posing potential liquidity risks

Despite the numerous risk factors, the stock still presents short-term trading opportunities:

Extreme market conditions such as “floor-to-ceiling” rallies are often accompanied by high-risk, high-return short-term opportunities. For investors with a higher risk appetite, they may participate with a small position on the premise of setting a stop-loss.

Judging from the turnover and turnover rate of the “floor-to-ceiling” rally on January 22, the stock still enjoys high market attention. As long as hot money is willing to take over, there is room for volatility gains.

After experiencing consecutive limit-downs and extreme volatility, the stock may have a demand for technical repair.

: The analysis reveals several noteworthy risk factors. Regulators have clearly stated a zero-tolerance attitude towards abnormal trading behaviors. The SSE’s notice indicates that relevant accounts have been suspended from trading, which may only be the beginning of a broader regulatory campaign [3][8]. Meanwhile, market data shows that main capital is exiting rapidly: after a net inflow of RMB 342 million on January 22, there was a net outflow of RMB 426 million on January 23 [2][7]. This change in capital flow indicates that the speculation may be coming to an end. Technical indicators show that the stock price volatility has severely deviated from the normal track. For retail investors lacking professional capabilities, the risks of participating in such stocks far outweigh the potential returns.

: The stock is in a highly sensitive period. Factors such as regulatory developments, main capital flow, and performance disclosure may trigger extreme stock price volatility. It is recommended to maintain close attention but participate cautiously.

• Stock Code
  : 603778.SH
• Current Market Capitalization
  : Approximately RMB 12.4 billion (as of midday January 23)
• All-Time High Price
  : RMB 27.72 per share (January 14, 2026)
• Current Price Range
  : Around RMB 18 per share
• 2025 Price Increase
  : Approximately 480%-674%
• 2025 Projected Net Loss
  : RMB 325 million - RMB 650 million
• Recent Turnover Rate
  : Up to 23.82% (January 22)
• Recent Turnover
  : Up to RMB 2.41 billion (January 22)

Key Price	Technical Implication
RMB 18 - RMB 18.5 per share	Current concentrated trading area, also the focus of long-short game after the “floor-to-ceiling” rally
RMB 27.72 per share	All-time high (January 14), forming a strong resistance level
RMB 14.73 per share	Limit-down price on January 22; may be retested if the bullish side loses control
Below RMB 10 per share	Valuation range that may be returned to if speculative capital completely exits

For most investors, given the stock’s deteriorating fundamentals, high regulatory risks, and severe deviation of its price from intrinsic value, it is recommended to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude and avoid participating in high-risk speculation.

• Only use an extremely small amount of capital (total position not exceeding 5%)
• Must set strict stop-loss rules (it is recommended to set the stop-loss level 10%-15% below the purchase cost)
• Quick in, quick out; do not hold positions for too long
• Closely monitor regulatory developments and main capital flow

It is recommended to avoid this stock. Before the PV industry completes capacity clearing and the company’s fundamentals see substantial improvement, this stock cannot be included in the optional target pool for long-term value investment.