Wuliangye (000858.SZ) Hot Stock Analysis Report: Market Attention Driven by Spring Festival Peak Season Expectations and Capital Inflow

Wuliangye’s appearance on the hot stock list is the result of the superposition of three drivers: seasonal factors, capital behavior, and institutional attention.

Before the Spring Festival, liquor consumption enters the annual peak period. According to data from Tmall’s New Year Shopping Festival, both the traditional “gift-giving” demand and the “self-indulgence” demand for low-alcohol liquor showed a clear upward trend in the same lunar period of 2026[5]. As a leading high-end liquor brand, Wuliangye directly benefits from pre-holiday procurement demand. In addition, Kweichow Moutai released the “2026 Kweichow Moutai Market-oriented Operation Plan” on January 13, building a consumer demand-centered operation system[6]. Moutai’s reform measures have driven increased attention to the entire liquor sector, and Wuliangye, as the second-largest player in the industry, has attracted capital attention.

According to data from Stockstar, main capital recorded a net purchase of RMB 11.1199 million on January 22 and RMB 10.6093 million on January 20. Consecutive capital inflows indicate that institutional investors have started to pay attention to this stock[1][2]. Although there was a net outflow of RMB 161 million on January 19, market sentiment has improved significantly recently. In addition, a block trade of RMB 2.0022 million occurred on January 19, with a transaction price of RMB 105.38, representing a 0.79% premium over the closing price[7]. The premium transaction shows that some institutions remain optimistic about the stock’s subsequent performance.

Within 90 days, 32 institutions have issued ratings, including 25 buy ratings and 6 overweight ratings. Leading institutions such as Guosen Securities and CICC have maintained their recommendations[3]. The average institutional target price of RMB 153.79 indicates significant upside potential, providing certain support for the stock price.

As of January 23, 2026, Wuliangye’s stock price closed at RMB 102.99, with a daily change of +0.22%, showing a slight rebound. However, data on weekly change of -3.07%, monthly change of -6.13%, and annual change of -19.95% indicate that the stock is under obvious medium-term pressure[4]. Over the past three years, the stock price has fallen by a cumulative 52.67%, being in a deep adjustment phase. The current price is close to the 52-week low (RMB 102.61), with a weak technical pattern.

The 20-day moving average is at RMB 106.62, forming a short-term resistance level; the 50-day moving average is at RMB 111.86, serving as a medium-term resistance level; the 200-day moving average at RMB 121.45 indicates that the long-term trend remains downward[4]. The support level below is at RMB 102.28, and if it breaks, the stock may test the integer level of RMB 100.

Today’s trading volume is approximately 21.46 million lots, higher than the average level of 176,400 lots. The turnover rate is about 0.45%, which is within the normal range, and the 5-day average trading volume remains stable at approximately 200,000 lots[4].

Technical analysis shows that the stock price is in a bottom consolidation phase, with multiple indicators releasing mixed signals:

Indicator	Value/Status	Signal Interpretation
RSI (14)	Oversold Zone	Potential rebound opportunity exists
KDJ	K:7.3, D:13.2, J:-4.6	Oversold, possible bottom divergence
MACD	No Crossover	Weak
Beta	1.14	Slightly higher than market volatility

: Both KDJ and RSI indicate oversold conditions, suggesting short-term rebound opportunities. However, the weak MACD and the continuous downward trend of the 200-day moving average indicate that the medium-term trend remains weak[4]. Investors need to wait for the stock price to stabilize above the 20-day moving average before considering entry.

2025 Q3 data shows that revenue reached RMB 8.174 billion, a 52.66% year-on-year decrease; net profit was RMB 2.019 billion, a 65.62% year-on-year decrease[4]. The cumulative operating revenue in the first three quarters was RMB 60.945 billion, a 10.26% year-on-year decrease; net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 21.511 billion, a 12% year-on-year decrease. Revenue was significantly 12.12% lower than market expectations, indicating that fundamentals are still in the bottoming process.

Despite performance pressure, the company’s financial health indicators remain excellent: ROE of 20.15% (excellent), net profit margin of 34.59% (high), asset-liability ratio of 19.26% (low), current ratio of 4.59 (very healthy), quick ratio of 4.08 (very healthy)[4]. The company is responding to industry adjustments through measures such as intelligent brewing upgrades, global promotion of brand culture, and technological innovation breakthroughs.

The current P/E (TTM) is approximately 14.06x, close to a historical low, with significant valuation recovery potential. Institutions expect that PE recovery will precede EPS recovery, which means the stock price may rebound before fundamental improvement.

:

1. Performance Decline Risk
   : Q3 revenue and net profit dropped by over 50% year-on-year, with fundamentals still under pressure
2. Industry Adjustment Risk
   : The liquor industry as a whole is in a deep adjustment period, and is expected to remain in the bottoming phase in 2026
3. Weak Macro Consumption
   : Business consumption activity and macroeconomic environment affect liquor demand
4. Channel Inventory Pressure
   : Inventory destocking is expected to continue into the first half of 2026
5. Weak Technical Pattern
   : The stock price is close to the 52-week low, with the 200-day moving average continuing to decline

:

1. Spring Festival Consumption Peak
   : Pre-holiday stock-up market may bring periodic opportunities
2. Valuation Recovery Potential
   : Institutional target price implies approximately 50% upside potential, supported by sound financial conditions
3. Recovering Capital Sentiment
   : Main capital has shifted from net outflow to net inflow
4. Industry Leading Position
   : Solid position as the second-largest liquor manufacturer in China

:

• Strong Support Level: RMB 102.28 (close to the 52-week low)
• First Resistance Level: RMB 106.62 (20-day moving average position)
• Second Resistance Level: RMB 111.86 (50-day moving average position)
• Strong Resistance Level: RMB 115-120 (dense area of previous consolidation platform)

:

• End of January 2026: Pre-Spring Festival stock-up market (short-term positive)
• End of April 2026: Release of 2025 annual report (performance confirmation)
• First half of 2026: Progress of industry inventory destocking (key medium-term variable)

Wuliangye currently falls into the category of

hot stocks, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. In the short term, technical indicators show oversold conditions combined with expectations of the Spring Festival peak season, indicating short-term rebound opportunities. It can be treated as an observation target in the consumer sector. In the medium term, investors need to wait for confirmation of a performance inflection point, focusing on the 2025 annual report performance and the progress of inventory destocking in the liquor industry. In the long term, the valuation is close to a historical low, the company has a solid leading position in the industry, and its financial condition is sound, providing significant valuation recovery potential.

: It is advisable to participate with a low position currently, not a heavy position; wait for the stock price to stabilize above the 20-day moving average before considering increasing positions; be cautious if it breaks below the integer level of RMB 100; first target price is RMB 115, medium-term target price is RMB 130-140.