Yili Group (600887.SH) Hot List Analysis: RMB 45 Billion Sci-Tech Innovation Bond Issuance and Institutional Capital Inflow Draw Attention

Yili Group’s inclusion in the hot list is driven by diversified core catalysts covering three dimensions: financing activities, capital operations, and strategic communication, creating a resonance effect[1][2][3].

serves as the most core catalyst. Yili Group completed the issuance of sci-tech innovation bonds in four tranches in January 2026. The first to third tranches were issued on January 8 with a total amount of RMB 35 billion, and the fourth tranche was issued on January 16 with an amount of RMB 10 billion. The issuance rate is uniformly 1.49%, with terms ranging from 68 to 81 days[4][5][6]. This interest rate is a model of low-cost financing in the current market environment, reflecting the capital market’s high recognition of Yili’s credit qualifications. The issuance of sci-tech innovation bonds not only provides the company with long-term stable capital support, but also reduces its reliance on traditional financing channels such as short-term bank loans, effectively reducing liquidity risk exposure.

sends a clear institutional buying signal. Market data on January 20 shows that the net inflow of main force capital into Yili Group reached RMB 91.0112 million, accounting for 6.98% of the total turnover on that day, while hot money recorded a net outflow of RMB 29.8692 million and retail capital had a net outflow of RMB 61.1420 million during the same period[1][2]. This capital flow structure indicates that institutional investors are actively positioning themselves, while individual investors are adopting a wait-and-see or profit-taking stance. The capital-level game pattern provides support for mid-to-long-term stock prices.

boosts market confidence. The Investor Day event themed “Focus on Growth · Unlock New Value” was held in Beijing. Chairman Pan Gang delivered an important speech, pointing out that “China’s dairy industry has fully entered a new stage of ‘quality improvement’ oriented by diversified and refined demand, moving beyond the previous period of ‘volume growth’ that solely pursued growth rates”[7]. The management clarified that the 2026 new product layout will focus on three core directions: health upgrading, scenario segmentation, and experience optimization, including new product categories such as Golden Classic Fresh Pure Milk, full-line upgrade of Shuhua, upgrade of Ambrosial Popping Bobble Yogurt, and Yike Living Spring Ready-to-Drink Tea[8]. The clear elaboration of the strategic direction has enhanced investors’ confidence in the company’s future development.

strengthens industrial chain layout. Yili Group participated in the placement and new share subscription of Youran Livestock through its overseas wholly-owned subsidiary Boyuan Investment, raising its shareholding ratio from 33.93% to 36.07%[6]. Youran Livestock’s business fully covers the entire upstream dairy industry chain including breeding, forage, feed, and dairy cow farming. This move demonstrates the company’s strategic forward-looking layout of high-quality upstream milk sources, aiming to fully leverage supply chain synergy advantages, ensure the supply of high-quality milk sources to support the development of deep-processing businesses.

: Yili Group closed at RMB 27.18 on January 20, rising 0.33% on the day, with a turnover of RMB 1.303 billion and a turnover rate of 0.76%[1][2]. From the perspective of support and resistance levels, the current price is at the middle track of the mid-term consolidation range. Key downward support levels are RMB 26 (previous low) and RMB 25 (key technical support); upward resistance levels include the integer level of RMB 28, the psychological level of RMB 30, and the historical intensive trading area of RMB 35 to 36[9][10].

shows significant upside potential. The average consensus target price of 26 participating institutions over the past 90 days is RMB 33.5, while the Sina In-Depth Report assigns a target price of RMB 35.2 based on a 20x PE valuation for 2026[9][10]. Based on this calculation, the current price has an upside of approximately 23.3% from the average institutional target price, and an upside of approximately 29.5% from the in-depth report’s target price, providing a relatively clear value anchor for mid-term allocation.

indicates relatively stable market holding sentiment. The 0.76% turnover rate is at a normal low level, indicating that market chips are well-locked, with no large-scale profit-taking or panic selling. The RMB 1.303 billion turnover is a relatively high activity level in the dairy sector, with relatively healthy volume-price coordination.

: In the first three quarters of 2025, Yili Group achieved operating revenue of RMB 90.564 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, maintaining a steady growth trend; net profit attributable to parent shareholders was RMB 10.426 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07%, reflecting that profitability still faces certain pressure; net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses reached RMB 10.103 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 18.73%, indicating that core business profitability, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, has actually improved significantly[2][6]. This divergence between “decline in net profit attributable to parent and increase in net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses” mainly stems from the phased impact of non-recurring items.

: The company’s total “three expenses” (sales, general & administrative, financial expenses) amounted to RMB 19.268 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, with a net reduction of RMB 664 million, reflecting the tangible results of digital and intelligent transformation[6]. Specifically, sales expenses were RMB 16.553 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%; general and administrative expenses were RMB 3.474 billion, a slight year-on-year increase of 2.91%; financial expenses were -RMB 759 million, with interest income making a positive contribution to profits. R&D expenses reached RMB 628 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.83%, reflecting the company’s continuous investment in technological innovation and strategic determination to develop new productive forces in the dairy industry[6].

: The company promises a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years. It has implemented 28 dividend distributions totaling RMB 61.602 billion, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 70% for six consecutive years, ranking first among Chinese dairy enterprises[6]. The high-dividend policy provides stable cash returns for long-term investors, and is particularly attractive in the interest rate downward cycle.

: The Sina In-Depth Report predicts that Yili Group’s revenue will reach RMB 117.067 billion, RMB 121.721 billion, and RMB 128.882 billion from 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profit attributable to parent shareholders reaching RMB 10.683 billion, RMB 11.139 billion, and RMB 12.571 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 16x, 15x, and 14x respectively[10]. The valuation level is within a historically reasonable range, and has a certain relative advantage compared to the overall valuation of the consumer sector.

: Among the 26 participating institutions, 20 gave a “Buy” rating and 6 gave an “Overweight” rating. The rating distribution is highly concentrated in the positive range, with no “Hold” or “Sell” ratings[9]. Such a highly consistent positive expectation is rare in the current market environment, reflecting professional institutions’ recognition of Yili Group’s mid-to-long-term investment value.

: Wanlian Securities pointed out that “dairy product costs are bottoming out and demand is recovering, with benign growth in low-temperature and deep-processed dairy products”, predicting that the pressure of excess raw milk supply will ease in 2026, asset impairment losses of major dairy enterprises due to spray powder losses are expected to decrease, and corporate profitability is expected to improve marginally[11]. Galaxy Securities released a report in December 2025 stating that “policies are favorable for improving supply and demand; pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking rhythm”, and maintained a “Buy” rating[12]. The overall industry sentiment is gradually stabilizing and recovering after the previous adjustment.

: The dairy concept sector fell 0.95% on January 21. Against the backdrop of the overall sector pullback, Yili Group showed relative resilience, and the against-the-tide net inflow of main force capital indicates a relative increase in capital attention[13]. This relatively strong performance helps attract more attention from trend-following capital.

: First, the 4.07% year-on-year decrease in net profit attributable to parent shareholders reflects phased pressure on profitability. After the dairy industry entered the stock competition stage, the industry’s growth momentum has weakened[6]. Second, the liquid milk business faces the challenge of growth stall, and fluctuations in raw milk prices may cause periodic disturbances to gross profit margin. Third, although the current 16x PE is within a historically reasonable range, whether the valuation can further expand depends on the actual realization of performance improvement.

include three aspects: First, the progress of consumption recovery directly affects terminal sales, and the 2026 Spring Festival stocking situation will be an important verification node. Second, the trend of raw milk costs will determine the room for corporate profitability recovery; attention should be paid to whether the pressure of excess raw milk supply in 2026 can be alleviated as scheduled and changes in spray powder losses. Third, the capital utilization efficiency of sci-tech innovation bonds and subsequent financing plans will affect the company’s development momentum and the process of financial structure optimization.

: It should be noted that the risk factors revealed in the analysis are common to the dairy sector, not unique to Yili Group. The company’s cost reduction and efficiency improvement capabilities, expansion of financing channels, and industrial chain integration efforts demonstrated in industry adversity are all better than the industry average. The continuous net inflow of main force capital and the highly consistent positive ratings from institutions provide a certain margin of safety for the stock price.

Yili Group’s inclusion in the hot list is the result of resonance from multiple catalysts. The successful issuance of RMB 45 billion sci-tech innovation bonds demonstrates the company’s strong financing capabilities and recognition from the capital market, and the low 1.49% interest rate effectively reduces financial costs. The net inflow of RMB 91.01 million in main force capital sends a signal of active institutional positioning, and the average consensus target price of RMB 33.5 from 26 institutions provides a mid-term value anchor. The 2025 Investor Day clarified the strategic positioning of the new “quality improvement” stage, and increasing the stake in Youran Livestock strengthens the upstream milk source layout, enhancing fundamental support.

Financially, revenue maintained positive growth in the first three quarters while net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased significantly. The decrease in “three expenses” reflects the results of digital and intelligent transformation, and the promise of a dividend payout ratio of over 70% provides a margin of safety for long-term investment. From a risk perspective, attention should be paid to the pressure of overall industry growth slowdown, the downward trend of net profit, and the possibility of a pullback after short-term gains. Comprehensive assessment shows that under the expected marginal improvement of bottoming dairy industry costs and recovering demand, Yili Group has mid-term allocation value. It is recommended to accumulate positions on dips and continuously track changes in fundamentals.