Analysis of LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH)'s Limit-Up: Driven by Favorable Policies and Capital, the PV Leader Regains Market Focus

On January 23, 2026, LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) strongly made it to the popular stock list, with a single-day gain of 10.01%, closing at RMB 19.35, trading volume reaching 4.986 million lots, turnover value of RMB 9.394 billion, and turnover rate of 6.58%[1]. In terms of capital flow, the main force capital recorded a net inflow of RMB 2.692 billion, accounting for 28.66% of the total turnover, indicating that institutional investors are the main driver of this market rally, rather than retail investors chasing the uptrend[1]. Such a large-scale net inflow of main force capital is considered significant in the current A-share market, reflecting a positive shift in institutional investors’ attitude towards the PV sector.

Notably, the stock rose by 2.15% on January 22 with a trading volume of 1.9156 million lots, while on January 23, the trading volume surged to 4.986 million lots, an increase of about 156% compared to the recent average level, presenting a typical pattern of rising volume with price, which is a healthy signal of capital entering the market[1][2]. This sharp increase in trading volume usually means a rapid rise in market attention, with capital actively building positions.

The PV industry has recently seen multiple favorable policies, which are the core catalyst for LONGi Green Energy to become a hot stock[5].

is the first important positive factor. The “Guidelines for Assessing the Grid-Connection Capacity of Distributed Generation (2025 Version)” approved by the National Energy Administration will be officially implemented on June 18, 2026. This policy cancels the rigid indicator of 80% reverse load rate, significantly reduces the scope of the “red zone”, and fully simplifies the filing and approval process, directly opening up the grid-connection space for distributed PV[5]. Previously, due to grid-connection capacity restrictions, a large number of distributed PV projects were unable to be connected to the grid, and the new policy will release a large amount of potential demand after implementation.

clarifies the target of adding 200 GW of new wind and solar energy installed capacity annually during the period, with a 40% growth in fixed asset investment[5]. The steady increase in PV installed capacity will directly drive the market demand for core products such as PV modules and inverters, which constitutes a direct positive for leading module manufacturers like LONGi Green Energy.

further stabilizes the industry pattern. The Ministry of Commerce ruled that starting from January 14, 2026, it will continue to impose a 5-year anti-dumping duty on solar-grade polysilicon originating from the United States and South Korea[5]. This policy protects the development of the domestic polysilicon industry, helps stabilize the price of raw materials in the industry, and is of great significance for alleviating the cost pressure on the upstream of the PV industry chain.

is a new growth point for PV demand in the industrial sector. The “Guidelines on Carrying Out Zero-Carbon Factory Construction Work” released on January 19 requires factories to vigorously install PV and supporting wind power, encourages the application of PV-storage integration, and plans to select the first batch of zero-carbon factory benchmarks in 2026[5]. This policy directly stimulates new PV demand in the industrial sector, opening up new application scenarios for PV modules.

lays the foundation for the long-term healthy development of the industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will promote the exit of backward production capacity through market-oriented means such as production capacity regulation, price monitoring, and quality supervision, guide the industry to shift from low-price competition to high-value development, and optimize the industry’s supply and demand pattern[5].

On January 22, Tesla CEO Elon Musk clearly endorsed space-based PV during a conversation with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, and disclosed relevant production capacity plans[6]. As one of the most influential entrepreneurs in the global new energy field, Musk’s statement has injected new imagination space into the PV industry, especially in the cutting-edge field of space-based PV. Although space-based PV is still in the technical verification stage, its commercialization prospects have opened up new growth imagination space for the PV industry, triggering short-term market speculation enthusiasm.

From a technical analysis perspective, LONGi Green Energy’s stock price has consolidated in the bottom range of RMB 14-22, forming an upward channel based on the golden cross of the 5/10-month moving averages, continuing the trend of bottoming out and strengthening[4]. The average target price set by institutions in the past 90 days is RMB 21.94[2], and the current price still has about 13% upside potential from the target price, which provides potential upward expectations for the stock price. The strengthening of the technical aspect resonates with the large-scale inflow of main force capital, supporting the strong performance of the stock price.

Despite the strong short-term performance, investors still need to pay attention to the following risk factors:

is the primary concern. LONGi Green Energy expects a net loss of RMB 6-6.5 billion in 2025[7], with its fundamentals still in the bottoming process. In fact, the entire PV industry is facing severe challenges, with 8 leading PV enterprises expected to record total losses exceeding RMB 100 billion[7]. The industry’s overcapacity problem is still being digested, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in enterprises’ profitability.

also cannot be ignored. Two ministries including the Ministry of Finance have canceled the export tax rebate for PV products and lowered the tax rebate rate for batteries (effective from April 1), and this policy adjustment will directly reduce the net profit of module manufacturers by 3-5 percentage points[8]. Although the domestic policy environment is favorable, the policy tightening on the export side will impact the profitability of PV enterprises’ overseas businesses.

also deserves attention. After the recent rebound, the stock price has already seen a relatively large upside compared to the industry average valuation, and some short-term profit-taking orders may choose to close positions after the limit-up, triggering stock price fluctuations.

Zheshang Securities analysis believes that 2026 is expected to be the “inflection point year” for the PV industry, with three core logics[9]: First, prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with polysilicon prices rising 47% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, leading to marginal improvement in industry profitability; Second, leading enterprises have launched equity incentive plans, targeting to turn losses into profits in 2026, with management making clear commitments to performance improvement; Third, the fund allocation ratio has dropped to the level before the 2020 market rally, providing room for recovery.

From a capital perspective, the current fund allocation to the PV sector is at a historical low, and once positive changes occur in the industry’s fundamentals, there will be significant room for capital replenishment. The large-scale net inflow of main force capital on January 23 may indicate that institutional investors are re-evaluating the allocation value of the PV sector.

LONGi Green Energy becoming a popular stock is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors. At the policy level, intensive favorable policies such as the relaxation of distributed PV grid-connection policies, the State Grid’s investment plan, the extension of anti-dumping duties on polysilicon, and the construction of zero-carbon factories have provided strong support for the industry’s development. At the capital level, the main force capital recorded a single-day net inflow of RMB 2.692 billion, with institutional investors being the main driver of the market rally. At the event level, Elon Musk’s endorsement of space-based PV has brought additional market attention and imagination space. Technically, the stock price has formed an uptrend based on the golden cross of the 5/10-month moving averages, with good coordination between volume and price.

However, investors also need to maintain a clear understanding. The company expects to still face a loss of RMB 6-6.5 billion in 2025, the industry’s overcapacity problem is still being digested, and the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will put pressure on profitability. In the short term after the current limit-up, there may be pressure from profit-taking. It is recommended to pay attention to the annual report forecast and Q1 performance in February-March to verify the sustainability of fundamental improvement. Whether it is worth continuing to focus on depends on investors’ judgment of the long-term development prospects of the PV industry and their tolerance for short-term fluctuations.