Hot Stock Analysis: Snowman Group (002639.SZ) – Valuation Risks Amid Capital-Driven Rally and Overlapping Thematic Catalysts

Snowman Group (002639.SZ) made it to the hot list on January 22, 2026, becoming a market focus. According to data from Eastmoney, the company was included in the Dragon and Tiger List due to abnormal share price movements on the day, ranking second in net capital inflows, only behind Pengding Holdings [1]. This capital flow directly drove its share price to hit the daily price limit at 13:04 [2]. On the same day, the company also benefited from the collective rise of multiple hot thematic sectors, with the oil service sector up 2.93%, natural gas sector up 2.49%, and nuclear fusion sector up 1.69% [2], forming an overlapping thematic effect.

Looking at transaction data, the margin purchase amount reached RMB 169 million on January 22, with margin repayments of RMB 164 million, resulting in a net margin purchase of RMB 5.5469 million, and the margin balance climbed to RMB 649 million [3]. The active entry of leveraged capital indicates high short-term trading enthusiasm, with investors optimistic about the company’s short-term performance. The turnover rate on the day was as high as 33.07%, significantly above normal levels [0], reflecting active market trading, but also potentially indicating that shareholdings are becoming dispersed.

In terms of price performance, Snowman Group has shown an extremely strong upward trend. Its year-to-date gain has reached 250.90%, rising from approximately RMB 6.5 to the current RMB 23.44 [0]. The gain over the past three months exceeds 111%, and the gain over the past month is 23.43%, indicating sufficient short-term momentum [0]. From a technical analysis perspective, the share price is currently above the 20-day moving average (RMB 22.26), 50-day moving average (RMB 18.52), and 200-day moving average (RMB 12.55), confirming the medium-to-long-term upward trend [0]. However, the share price is approaching the 52-week high of RMB 29.21, with strong resistance above.

Notably, the company experienced abnormal fluctuations for two consecutive trading days from January 15 to 16, with a cumulative decline deviation of over 20%, triggering a share price volatility announcement [7]. Such sharp fluctuations reflect the high-risk nature of the stock, and investors need to closely monitor its subsequent performance.

Despite the strong share price performance, the company’s fundamentals are unable to support its current valuation level. Based on the current share price of RMB 23.44, the company’s trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is as high as 435.54x, and its price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 7.23x [0], with valuation significantly deviating from the industry average. According to the 2024 performance forecast, the company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 30 million to RMB 45 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 295.28% to 392.93%, turning from a loss to a profit [6]. While the performance improvement is a positive signal, a net profit of RMB 35.99 million corresponds to a market capitalization of RMB 1.811 billion, with a net profit margin of only around 1.6% [0][7], and the degree of divergence between valuation and fundamentals is worrying.

In terms of business structure, the company’s main businesses cover four sectors: cold chain logistics, industrial refrigeration, clean energy, and hydrogen energy power [9][10]. The company provides a complete set of concrete cooling systems for “Hualong One” and participates in key national nuclear power projects [4], while also breaking foreign monopolies in the field of megawatt-level helium compressors [5], with certain technological advantages and industry status. However, these long-term growth potentials are difficult to be reflected in performance in the short term, and the share price rise more reflects market speculation on themes rather than fundamental improvements.

Judging from Dragon and Tiger List data and market trading volume, Snowman Group’s current rally has obvious capital-driven characteristics. Its net capital inflow ranked second on the Dragon and Tiger List on January 22, with high margin purchase activity [1][3], indicating that leveraged capital and short-term capital are actively participating. Such capital-driven rallies usually have strong short-term explosive power, but their sustainability depends on whether subsequent capital can continue to flow in and whether fundamentals can keep up.

Changes in the number of shareholders also deserve attention. The number of shareholders increased from 132,753 in October 2025 to 184,023 in December, representing a 38% increase [8], with shareholdings becoming dispersed and the degree of control by major shareholders declining. This change means that more and more retail investors are chasing the rally during the share price rise, which may increase subsequent selling pressure and pose a potential threat to share price stability.

Another important reason why Snowman Group has become a hot stock is the overlap of multiple hot themes. The company is involved in multiple hot tracks such as nuclear power, oil services, natural gas, and nuclear fusion [2][4][5], and the rise of each theme can bring attention to the company. In the current market environment that prefers new energy and technology growth, such stocks with overlapping themes are more likely to gain capital favor.

In particular, the nuclear fusion theme has benefited from the continuous rise in popularity of controllable nuclear fusion technology. As a hot target in the nuclear fusion theme, the company is expected to benefit from industry development and policy support in the long term [5]. However, investors need to distinguish between long-term growth logic and short-term theme speculation, and avoid equating long-term visions with short-term investment value.

From a fundamental perspective, the company does have certain technological strength and brand advantages. The company owns the internationally renowned ice-making equipment brand “SNOWKEY”, and holds the Swedish “SRM” (the originator of world screw compressors) and Italian “Refcomp” compressor brands through acquisitions [9][10]. The company is the host unit of the Ice Machine Working Group of the National Standardization Technical Committee on Refrigeration, responsible for formulating national and industry standards [9], with strong industry discourse power. The technological breakthrough of breaking foreign monopolies in megawatt-level helium compressors [5] further demonstrates the company’s R&D strength.

These advantages lay a foundation for the company’s long-term development, but in valuation analysis, it is necessary to objectively assess their contribution to short-term performance and avoid overly optimistic expectations pushing up the share price.

The current P/E ratio of 435x and P/B ratio of 7.23x are obviously too high, far exceeding the industry average. Based on the 2024 net profit of RMB 35.99 million, the company would need hundreds of years to recoup investment costs through profits. Even considering future performance growth, it is difficult to digest such a high valuation bubble in the short term.

The company’s 2024 operating revenue was RMB 2.285 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.41% [7], but its net profit margin is only around 1.6%, with relatively weak profitability. The improvement in fundamentals is far behind the share price increase, and there is a risk of value regression.

The cumulative decline deviation exceeded 20% over two consecutive trading days from January 15 to 16 [7], reflecting the sharp volatility characteristic of the share price. Investors chasing the rally at the current high level face significant downside risks.

The number of shareholders increased by 38% in three months [8], with shareholdings becoming dispersed and the difficulty for major shareholders to control the stock increasing. When market sentiment turns, it may trigger concentrated selling, exacerbating the share price decline.

The company received a latest ESG rating of CCC from Huazheng Index, ranking at the bottom of the industry [8]. Against the background of increasing emphasis on ESG investment, this may affect the allocation willingness of some institutional investors.

The company turned from a loss to a profit in 2024, with a clear performance improvement trend. If the company can maintain a growth momentum and gradually digest the current high valuation, there is still upside potential for the share price.

New energy businesses such as nuclear power and hydrogen energy have long-term growth potential. Against the background of the “Dual Carbon” goals, the clean energy industry will continue to receive policy support and market attention, and the company is expected to benefit from this.

The breakthrough of breaking foreign monopolies in megawatt-level helium compressors [5] marks an improvement in technological strength. If these technological advantages can be effectively translated into market share and orders, they will provide impetus for performance growth.

The core driving factors for Snowman Group (002639.SZ) to become a hot stock are the market attention triggered by ranking among the top three in net capital inflows on the Dragon and Tiger List, coupled with the overlap of multiple hot themes such as nuclear power and nuclear fusion, as well as fundamental support from technological breakthroughs and performance improvements [1][2][4][5][6]. From transaction data, margin purchases are active and the turnover rate is at a high level, indicating high enthusiasm for short-term capital participation [3][0].

However, investors need to clearly recognize the significant divergence between the current valuation level and fundamentals. The company’s 435x P/E ratio is based on a 2024 net profit of only RMB 35.99 million [0][6], and the risk of valuation bubbles cannot be ignored. From a technical analysis perspective, the share price is in a historical high area, approaching the 52-week high of RMB 29.21, with strong resistance above [0]. The 38% increase in the number of shareholders reflects dispersed shareholdings [8], which may increase subsequent volatility risks.

Overall, the company’s technological advantages in fields such as nuclear power and hydrogen energy lay a foundation for its long-term development, but the short-term share price increase has far exceeded fundamental support. For investors with different risk preferences, differentiated strategies are recommended: aggressive investors can set stop-loss levels and participate in short-term games with small positions; conservative investors are advised to wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable range before considering layout; investors with low risk tolerance should maintain a wait-and-see attitude.