Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ) Hot Stock Analysis Report

Tongfu Microelectronics released its earnings forecast on January 20, 2026, expecting its 2025 net profit attributable to parent company shareholders to reach

, representing a year-on-year surge of [1][2][3]. This outstanding performance mainly benefits from the structural growth of the global semiconductor industry, with the company’s capacity utilization rate significantly improved, especially the strong performance of chip packaging and testing businesses related to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The company achieved revenue of RMB 20.116 billion and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders of RMB 0.86 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [1], and the full-year forecast shows that the fourth quarter continued to maintain strong growth momentum.

The company’s stock

on January 16, 19, and 20, 2026, constituting abnormal stock trading volatility [1][4]. This anomaly directly triggered exchange attention and widespread investor discussion: on January 20, the stock rose 5.85% in a single day, with a turnover of RMB 10.1 billion and a turnover rate of 13.22% [4]; on January 22, the turnover rate further climbed to 19.01%, with a turnover of RMB 16.247 billion [5]. The stock price surged from approximately RMB 40 on January 16 to near RMB 60.

One of the key logics for market speculation on Tongfu Microelectronics is its

[6][7]. Tongfu Microelectronics is AMD’s largest packaging and testing service provider, undertaking the majority of its high-end CPU and GPU packaging and testing tasks. The global CPU supply is entering a tight phase in 2026, with news of a 10-15% price hike in AMD’s supply chain; the shortage and price increase of upstream CPUs mean that downstream packaging and testing capacity utilization will be fully utilized. In addition, the company’s memory chip production lines have steadily entered mass production, and large-size FCBGA has been mass-produced, further strengthening market expectations.

On January 21, 2026,

(including Ping An Securities, Great Wall Fund, Yangtze Asset Management, Zhonggeng Fund, CITIC Securities, Fullgoal Fund, etc.) conducted a collective research on Tongfu Microelectronics [8][9]. The research focuses on the company’s layout of cutting-edge packaging technologies such as Chiplet and 2D+, the strategic positioning of fund-raising projects around key field chip products and domestic substitution, and the capacity expansion plan for packaging technologies such as fan-out, wafer-level, and flip-chip bonding.

The company recently received the “Acceptance of Registration Notice” from the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, and was approved to register a total of

, including RMB 1 billion ultra-short-term financing bonds and RMB 2 billion medium-term notes [5]. This provides sufficient capital guarantee for the company’s future expansion.

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Time Period	Price Change	Comment
1-Day	+0.61%	Sustained upward momentum
5-Day	+29.67%	Strong short-squeeze rally
1-Month	+50.36%	Notable monthly gain
6-Month	+117.70%	Price doubled in half a year
1-Year	+99.86%	Yearly gain nearly doubling the price

The company’s current share price is RMB 56.34, approaching the 52-week high of RMB 59.20, with a market capitalization of RMB 85.5 billion [0].

(1 hand = 100 shares), which is the average daily trading volume of [0], indicating extremely high enthusiasm for capital participation. On January 22, the trading volume reached 2.8849 million hands, with a turnover of RMB 16.247 billion. The continuous volume expansion and price increase show that off-exchange funds are rushing into the market.

According to public data [5], as of the close on January 22:

• Main funds had a net outflow of RMB 1.728 billion
  (beware of high-level distribution)
• Hot money had a net inflow of RMB 0.664 billion
• Retail funds had a net inflow of RMB 1.064 billion

This capital structure of “main funds out, retail funds in” often appears at the stage high of stock prices, which is an early warning signal of a short-term top.

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
20-day Moving Average	¥43.53	Short-term moving average provides support
50-day Moving Average	¥39.51	Medium-term trend is upward
200-day Moving Average	¥32.22	Long-term moving averages are in a bullish formation
KDJ	K:87.1, D:86.0, J:89.2	Severely overbought zone [0]
RSI (14)	Overbought risk zone	Correction risk warning [0]
MACD	No death cross signal	Short-term sentiment remains bullish
Beta	0.42	Low correlation with the broader market

Technical indicators show that

, with significant short-term correction pressure [0]. However, the MACD shows no death cross signal, indicating that the medium-term trend has not fully reversed.

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: The current P/E ratio reaches 86.75x, a historical high, and valuation has fully priced in optimistic expectations [0]. Once earnings fall short of expectations or market sentiment shifts, there is significant risk of valuation compression.

: KDJ, RSI and other technical indicators all show severe overbought conditions, increasing the probability of a short-term correction. Historically, similar situations are often accompanied by a 10%-15% pullback.

: Main funds have a net outflow of RMB 1.728 billion, which may indicate high-level distribution. The large-scale entry of retail investors often coincides with a stage high.

: The current ratio is 0.91 and the quick ratio is 0.66, requiring attention to short-term solvency [0].

: The 2025 net profit forecast growth of 62%-99% verifies that the company benefits from the semiconductor industry recovery and domestic substitution trend.

: The semiconductor packaging and testing industry as a whole benefits from strong demand in emerging fields such as AI, high-performance computing, and 5G, as well as the industry prosperity driven by rising memory chip prices.

: The intensive research by 17 institutions shows that professional investors are highly concerned, and the company has a leading layout in cutting-edge packaging technologies such as Chiplet and 2D+.

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Price Level	Nature	Significance
¥59.20	52-Week High	If effectively broken, it may open up upward space
¥57.61	Short-term Resistance	Close to the previous high, may encounter profit-taking
¥43.53	20-Day Moving Average	Key short-term support level
¥40.00	Important Support	If broken, it may trigger a larger correction

: Whether the stock price can break through ¥59.20 to hit a new all-time high, whether trading volume can remain at a high level, the release of the 2024 annual report to verify the sustainability of fundamentals, and the impact of AMD’s new product launch on the company’s order volume.

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The driving factors for Tongfu Microelectronics to become a hot stock are clear:

(net profit forecast growth of 62%-99%), (tied to AMD + Chiplet advanced packaging + rising memory chip prices), (trading volume expanded by more than 3 times), and (research by 17 institutions). These factors together pushed the stock price up nearly 30% in 5 days, approaching the 52-week high.

However, the analysis reveals several notable risk factors. The current valuation level is significantly high (P/E 86.75x), technical indicators show overbought status, and main funds have begun to net out. Overheated market sentiment may signal short-term adjustment risk. Based on a comprehensive assessment,

. It is recommended that existing holders set a stop-loss at ¥43.50 (20-day moving average), and potential holders wait for a correction to below ¥40.00 before considering phased position building. The company has excellent fundamentals and is in a high-prosperity track, but it is more prudent to wait for market sentiment to return to rationality before paying attention.