White House Announces October Economic Data May Never Be Released Due to Government Shutdown

This analysis is based on the White House announcement on November 12, 2025, that October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs reports may never be released due to the ongoing government shutdown [1][2][3]. The shutdown, which began October 1 and lasted over 40 days, represents an unprecedented disruption to federal statistical operations, potentially creating permanent gaps in America’s economic record [1][4].

The record-breaking shutdown paralyzed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), preventing essential data collection throughout October 2025 [4]. Unlike previous shutdowns, the timing and duration of this disruption have created a situation where October 2025 will “permanently remain a partial blind spot in America’s official record” [4]. The BLS has been unable to carry out active data collections since October 1, and in some cases “may be unable to retroactively collect consistent information about Americans’ experiences during this period” [4].

The historical context reveals this is significantly more severe than the 2013 shutdown, which only delayed reports by a few weeks [3][4]. The 2025 shutdown’s timing during peak data collection periods has created permanent gaps that cannot be easily remedied [4].

Federal Reserve policymakers face being “flying blind at a critical period” ahead of their December 9-10 meeting [1][6]. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the data void, stating the central bank is turning to private-sector data sources: “It doesn’t replace the government data, but it gives us a picture” [6].

Powell previously described the shutdown as creating a “fog” that requires cautious policymaking, stating “If you’re driving in the fog, you slow down” [6][7]. This suggests the Fed may adopt a more conservative stance at their December meeting due to the uncertainty created by missing official data.

On November 12, 2025, markets showed mixed reactions to the announcement: S&P 500 declined 0.25% to 6,850.92, NASDAQ fell 0.67% to 23,406.46, while Dow Jones rose 0.50% to 48,254.82 [0]. The divergence suggests uncertainty about the broader economic implications of the data gap.

Economists are increasingly forced to rely on alternative data sources, including:

• ADP private-sector employment reports (showing 42,000 jobs added in October)
• Indeed Job Postings Index
• PriceStats and Adobe Digital Price Index for inflation
• State-level employment data [5][6]

: This incident reveals critical vulnerabilities in the U.S. federal statistical system. The Friends of BLS warned that the 2025 shutdown delays may be longer and cause more severe data quality issues than previous shutdowns due to timing and duration factors [4].

: The White House’s claim that Democrats “may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system” [2][3] highlights the political dimensions of what should be non-partisan statistical operations. This could undermine long-term confidence in official economic data.

: While the Fed and economists are adapting to use private-sector data, these sources lack the comprehensive coverage and methodological rigor of official BLS statistics [6]. This could lead to less accurate economic forecasting and potentially inappropriate policy responses.

: The data gap creates significant challenges for the Fed’s December meeting and beyond. Without official inflation and employment data, policymakers may make decisions based on incomplete information, potentially leading to inappropriate monetary policy responses [6][7].

: The absence of official data could increase market reliance on private indicators, potentially amplifying volatility if alternative sources diverge significantly from historical government data patterns.

: The Friends of BLS confirmed that October 2025 will permanently remain a blind spot, raising concerns about the resilience and funding of federal statistical systems [4].

: The crisis may accelerate the development and adoption of alternative economic measurement tools and private-sector data solutions.

: This unprecedented disruption could prompt reforms to make federal statistical operations more resilient to political disruptions.

The White House announcement on November 12, 2025, revealed that October’s CPI and jobs reports are “likely never being released” due to the government shutdown that began October 1 [1][2][3]. The 40+ day shutdown prevented BLS from collecting essential data throughout October, creating permanent gaps in America’s economic record [4].

Federal Reserve policymakers face significant challenges ahead of their December 9-10 meeting, with Chair Powell acknowledging they are “flying blind” and turning to private-sector data sources [1][6]. The market reaction was mixed on November 12, 2025, reflecting uncertainty about the economic implications [0].

The incident exposes systemic vulnerabilities in federal statistical operations and raises concerns about long-term data credibility [4]. While alternative data sources are being utilized, they lack the comprehensiveness of official BLS statistics, creating ongoing challenges for economic forecasting and policy decisions [6].