Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's 2026 US Economic Outlook: Growth Optimism Tempered by Policy and Geopolitical Risks

Goldman Sachs economists, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, have projected US real GDP growth of 2.6% for 2026, representing a 0.6 percentage point premium over the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.0% [2][3]. This projection indicates an acceleration from the approximately 2.1% growth recorded in 2025, suggesting a strengthening economic foundation as the year progresses. The constructive outlook reflects the collective assessment of Goldman Sachs’ research team and represents one of the more optimistic forecasts among major financial institutions.

CEO David Solomon has articulated this positive stance consistently across multiple recent public appearances, including interviews at Davos 2026 and the Asia-Pacific Macro Conference. In a CNBC interview, Solomon stated that the US economy is “set up for the possibility for a stronger growth trajectory” over the coming years, citing structural advantages that distinguish the American economy from its global counterparts [4]. This view represents a breadth of perspective spanning both the macroeconomic research framework and the practical insights gained through Goldman Sachs’ positioning across global markets and deal activity.

The Goldman Sachs outlook identifies several converging factors that create a favorable environment for accelerated economic growth in 2026:

: The “One-Big-Beautiful-Bill Act” is projected to deliver approximately $100 billion in additional tax refunds during the first half of 2026, representing roughly 0.4% of disposable income for American households [3]. This fiscal injection is expected to provide meaningful support to consumer spending and overall economic activity during the critical early-year period. Solomon has characterized the current regulatory approach in Washington as “quite stimulative for investment and growth,” noting that the firm maintains a “very, very good” relationship with the current administration [5].

: The ongoing artificial intelligence infrastructure build represents what Solomon has termed a “major multi-year growth catalyst,” with spending already exceeding 1% of GDP in 2025 [6]. The four largest hyperscalers—collectively investing over $400 billion in AI infrastructure—are driving substantial capital formation and related economic activity across multiple sectors. Solomon expressed being “incredibly bullish” on AI’s long-term productivity impact, though this enthusiasm is balanced against short-term valuation concerns that warrant monitoring [6].

: Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that tariff rates rose approximately 11 percentage points in 2025, creating a meaningful headwind for economic growth. However, economists project this burden will “fade” in 2026 if tariff rates remain at current levels, removing a significant drag on trade-dependent sectors [3]. This normalization is expected to benefit manufacturers, exporters, and companies with complex global supply chains.

: Solomon observed that the “changed regulatory environment” is making corporate executives “increasingly ambitious” about pursuing M&A activity [7]. This shift in sentiment reflects a fundamental change in the business climate that could unlock dormant deal pipelines and encourage strategic combinations across industries.

Despite the constructive baseline outlook, Solomon has consistently emphasized several risk factors that could disrupt the positive trajectory:

: The CEO characterized the current policy approach as a “shotgun approach to policy,” expressing concern about inconsistency that creates uncertainty for business planning [8][9]. Specifically, issues including “Greenland and tariffs in Europe” have generated geopolitical friction that has caused some corporate decision-makers to pause capital allocation decisions. This tension between stimulative intent and execution clarity represents a notable risk to the optimistic outlook.

: Solomon identified “exogenous events” as the “primary threat to the 2026 trajectory,” encompassing geopolitical conflicts, cyber threats, and idiosyncratic shocks that could materially alter market sentiment [9]. These factors are inherently difficult to predict and may emerge without warning, creating an unavoidable element of uncertainty in any forward-looking assessment.

: While the overall economic outlook remains positive, Solomon noted that the US job market has softened, requiring careful monitoring [7]. A deterioration in labor market conditions could erode consumer spending power and undermine the growth assumptions embedded in the 2.6% GDP projection.

: Consumer pain point regarding elevated inflation remains a concern, with sticky price growth potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to provide monetary accommodation [6]. This dynamic creates a delicate balancing act for policymakers, who must navigate between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.

Solomon’s outlook on merger and acquisition activity represents one of the most compelling themes to emerge from his recent commentary. The CEO stated that “unless there’s a big exogenous event that really significantly shifts sentiment, 2026 could be one of the best M&A years ever” [8]. This assessment is supported by concrete data: 2025 recorded $5.1 trillion in M&A volume, representing a 44% jump from 2024 levels and signaling a “bold and strategic” environment for corporate combinations [9].

The IPO pipeline presents equally promising dynamics. Kim Posnett, Goldman’s Co-Head of Investment Banking, predicts an “IPO mega-cycle” as private equity portfolios accumulated during the 2020-2021 boom years prepare to exit [9]. This anticipated wave of public offerings could revitalize capital markets activity and provide new investment opportunities for institutional and retail investors alike.

The intersection of deregulatory momentum and pent-up strategic demand creates a potentially transformative environment for corporate restructuring. Companies that have delayed strategic moves may find the current window attractive, particularly if the regulatory clarity Solomon describes continues to materialize.

Solomon’s commentary highlighted a stark contrast between the robust US outlook and the challenging environment facing European economies. Goldman Sachs projects European GDP growth of less than 1% for 2026, a significant underperformance relative to the United States [9]. This gap is expected to “continue widening” due to structural factors including slower capital formation and more limited tech infrastructure development on the continent.

The demographic and economic scale differences reinforce this divergence: the United States, with a population of approximately 330 million and an economy valued at roughly $30 trillion, maintains trend growth above 2%. Europe, despite a larger population of approximately 450 million, operates an economy of about $20 trillion with trend growth below 1% [9]. These structural dynamics suggest the transatlantic growth differential may persist beyond 2026, with implications for investment allocation and corporate strategy.

An often-overlooked aspect of Solomon’s commentary concerned the firm’s own trajectory, with the CEO noting a “slower” trajectory for talent growth at Goldman Sachs in 2026, even amid broader market optimism [10]. This measured approach to headcount expansion suggests organizational discipline and may reflect lessons learned from previous market cycles. The comment provides insight into how Goldman Sachs is positioning itself for the anticipated environment without overextending based on optimistic projections.

: The “shotgun approach to policy” identified by Solomon creates execution risk for corporate investment plans [8][9]. Organizations making capital allocation decisions face uncertainty about the consistency and duration of current policy approaches. This risk warrants careful scenario planning and flexible execution strategies.

: Exogenous events from geopolitics—including US-China tensions and European policy developments—represent the primary threat to the constructive baseline [9]. The potential for sudden escalation or de-escalation creates asymmetric risk profiles that require ongoing monitoring and contingency preparation.

: While Solomon expressed strong conviction in AI’s long-term productivity impact, short-term valuations may be overstated [6]. Market participants should be aware that a correction in AI-related equities could create broader market volatility, even if the fundamental technology thesis remains intact.

: A softening US job market could erode consumer spending power, undermining growth assumptions [7]. Employment data releases and labor market indicators merit close attention as leading indicators of consumption trends.

: The favorable combination of reduced regulatory friction, accessible financing (assuming continued Fed accommodation), and ambitious corporate leadership creates a potentially exceptional window for strategic combinations. Companies with strong balance sheets may find acquisition targets more receptive than in recent years.

: The anticipated “IPO mega-cycle” presents opportunities for investors to participate in new public offerings from high-quality private companies accumulated during the 2020-2021 vintage period. However, pricing discipline remains essential given the potential for issuer enthusiasm to exceed fundamental value.

: The ongoing $400+ billion hyperscaler investment cycle creates sustained demand for related hardware, software, and services providers. Companies positioned along the AI infrastructure value chain may experience extended growth periods as deployment accelerates.

Goldman Sachs’ constructive outlook for 2026 US economic growth reflects the convergence of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure investment, regulatory relief, and improving trade dynamics. The 2.6% GDP growth projection—0.6 percentage points above consensus—positions the United States for another year of outperformance relative to developed market peers, particularly Europe. CEO David Solomon’s characterization of Washington as “open for business” aligns with observed improvements in the regulatory environment that are encouraging corporate ambition regarding M&A activity [5].

The baseline forecast remains contingent on avoiding significant exogenous shocks, with geopolitical developments, cyber threats, and policy execution representing the primary uncertainties. Market participants should validate the optimistic outlook through monitoring of Fed policy trajectory, US-China trade negotiations, M&A pipeline data, AI capital expenditure announcements, employment indicators, and geopolitical risk assessments. The intersection of these factors will determine whether 2026 fulfills Solomon’s characterization as potentially “one of the best M&A years ever” or whether the identified “speed bumps” materially alter the trajectory.