Barron's 2025 Stock Picks Performance Analysis: Sphere Entertainment and Amphenol Lead Winners

Barron’s published its comprehensive annual review of stock picks on January 29, 2026, documenting the publication’s investment performance over the past year [1]. The analysis reveals that Barron’s successful picks shared common characteristics: contrarian positioning, timely execution on turnaround stories, and exposure to emerging thematic trends such as AI infrastructure buildout and innovative entertainment formats. The featured winners—Sphere Entertainment (SPHR), Amphenol (APH), and Paramount Skydance—illustrate both the potential rewards of unconventional thinking and the ongoing challenges facing traditional media investments [1].

The market context for Barron’s successful picks proved favorable, with the Russell 2000 significantly outperforming the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones in January 2026 [0]. This environment of market breadth expansion beyond large-cap names validated Barron’s strategy of focusing on smaller, more niche investment opportunities rather than consensus mega-cap selections. The timing of several recommendations captured substantial value as companies executed on strategic pivots and content strategies that materialized throughout the year.

Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) emerged as Barron’s top-performing pick, delivering an exceptional 193% return in 2025 compared to the S&P 500’s 24% gain [0][1]. The stock’s remarkable trajectory was driven by multiple catalysts, including the unprecedented success of the Wizard of Oz production, which sold more than 2 million tickets since its August debut and generated approximately $260 million in ticket sales [3]. The company’s operational improvements proved equally significant, with adjusted operating profitability of $17.1 million achieved in Q3 2025, reversing a loss of $26.3 million in Q3 2024 [3].

The company’s strategic pivot to smaller-scale venues represents a key development that Barron’s likely recognized as a de-risking mechanism for expansion. The announced “mini-Sphere” venue at National Harbor, Maryland—with a 6,000-seat capacity and $1 billion cost estimate—demonstrates a more capital-efficient approach to growth compared to the original Las Vegas Sphere [3][4]. Additionally, Sphere Entertainment achieved record rankings as the #1 grossing venue worldwide on both Billboard’s and Pollstar’s 2025 lists, validating the venue’s unique value proposition in the entertainment landscape [4].

Amphenol (APH) delivered strong performance with a 129.64% return over the analysis period, benefiting from its strategic positioning in the AI infrastructure and data center buildout cycle [0]. The company’s Q4 2025 results exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.97 versus the $0.93 consensus estimate and revenue of $6.44 billion versus $6.19 billion expected—a remarkable 49% revenue increase driven primarily by data center and AI-related spending [2]. The CCS acquisition expanded Amphenol’s AI exposure, with management guiding $6.9B-$7B in Q1 2026 sales, suggesting continued momentum [2].

However, the market’s reaction to Amphenol’s strong earnings reveals important risk considerations. Despite beating expectations, the stock fell 12.2% on January 28, 2026, indicating that valuation concerns may have overtaken fundamentals in investor decision-making [0][2]. The stock’s P/E ratio of 46.67x reflects premium pricing that assumes continued growth acceleration, creating vulnerability to any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or data center expansion [0].

Paramount Global (PARA) represented the more challenged component of Barron’s featured picks, with the stock down 14.42% over the past three months and trading near its 52-week low at $11.04 [0]. The company’s Q4 2025 earnings miss—EPS of -$0.03 versus the $0.47 estimate—exemplifies the structural challenges facing traditional media companies [0]. Revenue of $6.70 billion missed estimates by 2.75%, reflecting ongoing pressure from cord-cutting on affiliate revenue (50.3% of revenue) and advertising market volatility (31.4% of revenue) [0].

The Skydance merger has not yet translated into improved shareholder value, and analyst sentiment remains predominantly negative with 46.2% of analysts recommending selling the stock [0]. The company’s negative ROE of -1.77% and high debt levels compound the structural concerns facing the media industry, suggesting that a turnaround thesis may require more time and successful execution on strategic initiatives.

Barron’s 2025 performance demonstrates that out-of-the-box thinking and willingness to look beyond consensus mega-cap picks yielded meaningful alpha in a year characterized by market breadth expansion [1]. Both Sphere Entertainment and Amphenol represented non-consensus opportunities that required conviction and patience as their investment theses developed. The success of these picks validates the value of contrarian research and thematic positioning, particularly in an environment where smaller-cap indices significantly outperformed their larger counterparts.

Amphenol’s performance underscores the continued importance of AI infrastructure exposure in industrial and technology selections. The company’s strategic positioning through the CCS acquisition proved timely, capturing the wave of data center and AI-related capital spending that characterized 2025 [2]. Management’s optimistic guidance for Q1 2026 sales suggests this theme may have further runway, though investors should carefully weigh the sustainability of AI spending against current premium valuations.

The contrast between Sphere Entertainment’s success and Paramount Global’s struggles illustrates the divergent paths available within the entertainment sector. While Sphere’s innovative venue format and experiential content strategy generated exceptional returns, traditional media assets with advertising and affiliate revenue dependence faced continued structural pressure. This dichotomy suggests that content delivery mechanism innovation may be as important as content quality in determining investment outcomes within the sector.

Amphenol’s post-earnings decline despite beating expectations highlights the importance of valuation discipline even in fundamentally sound investments [2]. The stock’s premium multiple of 46.67x P/E ratio means that any shortfall in growth expectations or broader market multiple compression could produce significant drawdowns, regardless of underlying business momentum.

The National Harbor expansion represents a strategic pivot to more capital-efficient growth, potentially unlocking new geographic markets without the massive capital requirements of the Las Vegas flagship [3][4]. The Wizard of Oz production’s success demonstrates the reusability of Sphere content, suggesting that future productions could generate incremental returns with lower marginal costs. Record venue rankings provide validation of the entertainment format’s global appeal [4].

The company remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with -$1.37 EPS in Q1 FY2026, indicating that operational improvements have not yet translated to bottom-line profitability [0]. The expansion strategy requires significant capital deployment, with the National Harbor project contingent on definitive agreements and appropriate incentives [3][4]. New productions require $80M-$100M upfront investment, creating execution risk around content pipeline development. Regulatory risk persists, as demonstrated by the London Sphere project being blocked due to light pollution concerns [0].

The AI infrastructure buildout remains in early stages, suggesting potential continued demand for Amphenol’s connectors and components across data center, networking, and computing applications [2]. The company’s diversified revenue base across Communications Solutions (53.3% of revenue), Harsh Environment Solutions (24.7%), and Interconnect Products (22.1%) provides some insulation from sector-specific downturns [0]. Management’s optimistic Q1 2026 guidance indicates continued momentum.

The 12.2% single-day decline following strong earnings demonstrates elevated valuation sensitivity [2]. A heavy concentration in AI and data center spending creates vulnerability to any slowdown in enterprise capital expenditure or cloud infrastructure expansion. The CCS acquisition introduces integration execution risk, and the company’s geographic exposure—with 49.1% of revenue from “Other Foreign Locations”—introduces geopolitical and currency risks [0].

The Skydance merger could eventually unlock synergies and strategic options that improve the company’s competitive positioning. Potential asset sales or strategic transactions could unlock value from the company’s content library and intellectual property. The streaming and direct-to-consumer segment may eventually achieve scale and profitability.

The structural decline in traditional media continues, with cord-cutting pressures likely to persist and potentially accelerate. High debt levels constrain financial flexibility and increase bankruptcy risk in a downside scenario. The negative ROE of -1.77% indicates challenges in generating shareholder returns from current operations [0]. Analyst consensus remains predominantly negative, limiting potential upside from institutional reallocation.

Barron’s 2025 stock pick performance analysis provides valuable insights into effective investment approaches and market dynamics. The publication’s success with Sphere Entertainment (193% return) and Amphenol (129.64% return) validates contrarian positioning in innovative entertainment formats and AI infrastructure exposure, respectively [0][1]. Both stocks maintained strong analyst consensus—SPHR with 66.7% buy ratings and a $105.00 price target (+11.3% upside), APH with balanced buy/hold recommendations and a $165.00 price target (+13.0% upside) [0].

The Russell 2000’s 6.49% January 2026 gain compared to the S&P 500’s 1.45% return illustrates the market breadth expansion that benefited Barron’s smaller-cap focused approach [0]. Investors considering similar strategies should note the importance of valuation discipline, as demonstrated by Amphenol’s post-earnings decline despite fundamental strength. The divergent performance between entertainment innovation (Sphere) and traditional media (Paramount) highlights the critical importance of business model evolution in determining sector outcomes.

Upcoming catalysts to monitor include Sphere Entertainment’s Q2 FY2026 earnings report on March 2, 2026, for Wizard of Oz contribution updates and National Harbor timeline guidance; Amphenol’s Q1 FY2026 outlook to validate the $6.9B-$7B sales target; and Paramount’s strategic developments regarding Skydance integration and potential asset transactions [0][2].