S&P 500 & Nasdaq Futures Edge Higher as Earnings Season Intensifies on February 3, 2026

The pre-market trading session on February 3, 2026, demonstrated cautious investor sentiment following a robust regular session on February 2, 2026, where the S&P 500 gained 0.86%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.95%, and the Dow Jones jumped 1.29% [0][1]. The modest futures gains indicated that investors were taking profits after strong gains while maintaining optimism heading into the critical earnings week.

The divergence among major indices provided meaningful insight into sector rotation patterns. The Nasdaq 100 futures’ outperformance at +0.31% compared to the S&P 500’s +0.1% signaled continued confidence in technology sector leadership, particularly in AI-related businesses. Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures slipped 40 points, suggesting more defensive positioning among traditional industrial and financial stocks [1].

The pre-market trading revealed significant individual stock volatility tied to company-specific developments. Palantir Technologies emerged as the standout performer, surging 11% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and raising its full-year guidance [1]. This strong performance reflected continued investor appetite for AI and data analytics companies that can demonstrate clear revenue growth and profitability trajectories.

Teradyne represented another notable winner, with pre-market gains exceeding 20% following the release of a first-quarter revenue and profit outlook that exceeded analyst expectations [1]. The company’s results were attributed to robust data center demand, underscoring the ongoing infrastructure build-out supporting AI deployment across industries.

Conversely, Merck faced selling pressure, declining 1% after issuing a cautious 2026 outlook that projected revenue of $65.5–$67.0 billion, falling below analyst expectations [1]. This guidance cut raised concerns about potential weakness in the broader healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors. PepsiCo similarly declined 1% despite beating earnings estimates, weighed down by persistent volume challenges in its beverage and snack businesses [1].

Nvidia’s 3% pre-market decline represented a significant drag on the Nasdaq, driven by concerns about stalled OpenAI infrastructure plans [1]. This movement highlighted the market’s sensitivity to AI capex spending developments and the interconnected nature of the AI ecosystem, where delays or reductions in spending by major cloud providers can impact semiconductor demand.

The sector performance data revealed a notable defensive rotation bias, with Consumer Defensive stocks leading gains at +2.56% while Utilities lagged significantly at -2.14% [0]. This pattern suggested that some investors were reallocating from interest-rate-sensitive sectors (utilities) toward defensive consumer staples that typically perform well during periods of economic uncertainty. The Consumer Cyclical sector gained 1.23%, while Technology advanced 1.13%, maintaining its leadership role despite the mixed individual stock performances [0].

The earnings previews and early reports reinforced the centrality of AI infrastructure spending to market performance. Teradyne’s exceptional guidance tied directly to data center demand illustrated the cascading benefits of AI deployment across the technology supply chain [1]. Similarly, the concern surrounding Nvidia reflected investor focus on sustained capital expenditure levels from major cloud providers, particularly as President Trump noted that Congress was “close to a resolution” on government shutdown matters, with AI-related capital spending decisions potentially deferred pending clarity [1].

The AI theme extended to storage and infrastructure companies, with Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate showing pre-market strength, indicating broad-based optimism about data center build-out demand [1]. This sector-wide strength suggested that despite individual stock volatility, the underlying structural trend supporting AI-related capital spending remained intact.

Market analysis highlighted a significant historical correlation between January market performance and annual returns. When January produces positive returns for the S&P 500, historical data suggests approximately an 88% probability of positive annual returns [4]. Given the strong January performance that carried into early February, this seasonal tailwind may have been supporting current market optimism among investors.

The partial U.S. government shutdown had created a notable information gap, delaying key economic data releases including January employment figures and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data [1]. This data blackout complicated investors’ ability to assess underlying economic momentum and inflation trends, potentially contributing to the cautious trading pattern observed in pre-market activity. The uncertainty around economic conditions made individual company earnings reports even more critical as primary market drivers.

: The government shutdown represented a significant source of uncertainty, creating data blackout periods that made it more difficult to assess true economic momentum [1]. Without key employment and labor market data, investors lacked important inputs for Federal Reserve policy expectations and economic growth forecasts. This uncertainty could amplify market volatility around earnings releases.

: The continued heavy concentration of market gains in AI-related names created potential vulnerability if earnings disappoint or if AI capital spending shows signs of deceleration [1]. The significant pre-market moves in AI-sensitive stocks like Nvidia and Teradyne illustrated the heightened sensitivity to any news affecting the AI investment thesis.

: Gold and silver futures showed significant early selloffs before rebounding, indicating elevated commodity market volatility that could spill over into equity markets [1]. This trading pattern suggested heightened uncertainty among macro-focused investors.

: Bitcoin’s decline to its lowest level since April 2025 signaled a broader reduction in risk appetite across asset classes [1]. The cryptocurrency market’s sensitivity to risk conditions made it a useful indicator of broader sentiment shifts.

: With over 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report during the week, including major tech names like Alphabet and Amazon, significant earnings surprises—both positive and negative—could create trading opportunities [1]. Alphabet analysts expected GAAP EPS of $2.62 on revenue of $104.75 billion, representing year-over-year growth from $2.15 EPS and $96.47 billion in the prior-year quarter [3].

: The strength in Consumer Defensive sectors combined with lagging Utilities suggested potential rotation opportunities into historically defensive areas while maintaining technology exposure through AI-focused names [0].

: Companies like Teradyne demonstrating sustained demand tied to data center expansion indicated opportunities in semiconductor testing equipment and infrastructure providers that may benefit from continued AI deployment regardless of individual semiconductor stock performance [1].

The February 3, 2026, pre-market session reflected a market in transition, balancing strong recent gains against macro uncertainty and the critical test of corporate earnings season. The 0.1% rise in S&P 500 futures and 0.31% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures indicated cautious optimism, with technology sector leadership remaining intact despite individual stock volatility [1][0].

Key earnings catalysts included Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer on February 3, followed by Alphabet and Amazon on February 4 [1]. Alphabet’s expected EPS of $2.62 represented significant year-over-year growth, while Amazon’s results would provide additional insight into cloud spending trends and consumer retail health [2][3].

The government shutdown’s impact on economic data releases created an information vacuum that made earnings reports even more important as market drivers [1]. Investors were closely monitoring AI infrastructure spending trends, with Teradyne’s strong guidance providing evidence of sustained data center demand, while Nvidia’s decline highlighted vulnerability to any signs of capex slowdown [1].

The sector rotation toward Consumer Defensive stocks at +2.56% while Utilities lagged at -2.14% suggested some investors were preparing for potential economic uncertainty by increasing defensive positioning [0]. This rotation pattern warranted monitoring as the earnings season progressed.