Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs and Inflation Data in Focus Amid Government Shutdown Delay

The January 2026 U.S. jobs report, originally scheduled for release on February 6, 2026, has been postponed to February 11 following a four-day partial government shutdown that concluded on February 3, 2026 [1][2]. This delay creates a significant information gap at a critical juncture for monetary policy expectations. Unlike previous shutdowns in October-November 2025 where data collection was entirely suspended, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has indicated that employment data for January has been collected—just delayed in processing and release [2].

The timing of this delay is particularly consequential given the Fed’s explicit “wait for clear deterioration” stance regarding labor market conditions before considering rate cuts [4]. Market participants have been operating with limited labor market visibility, and the extended delay may amplify volatility once the data finally releases. Recent market data [0] indicates elevated sensitivity, with the S&P 500 trading near 6,870 with approximately 1.8% range over recent weeks, suggesting that unexpected data could trigger meaningful price movements.

Federal Reserve officials maintained the benchmark interest rate in the 3.50-3.75% range at their recent meeting, with markets now pricing divergent rate cut scenarios for 2026. Goldman Sachs expects two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, while Bankrate anticipates three cuts amounting to 75 basis points of easing [3]. The futures market currently assigns highest probability to the first rate cut occurring around June 2026, though this timing remains contingent on incoming economic data demonstrating sufficient labor market softening [4].

The delayed jobs report will provide crucial input for Fed officials evaluating whether economic conditions have deteriorated sufficiently to justify policy easing. Key indicators to watch include non-farm payroll additions, the unemployment rate trajectory, and wage growth patterns—all of which factor into the Fed’s dual mandate assessment [4].

Concurrent with U.S. developments, eurozone and U.K. GDP data releases this week will offer additional context for global growth narratives. The EY ITEM Club projects U.K. GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, while UBS has raised its eurozone 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from previous estimates, with the World Bank projecting eurozone GDP at approximately 0.9% [5][6]. These modestly positive growth projections suggest continued economic expansion in Europe, though at varying paces that could influence ECB and BoE policy divergence considerations.

The interaction between U.S. and European monetary policy paths presents significant implications for currency markets, particularly EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate dynamics. Two BoE rate cuts are currently expected in 2026, while the ECB faces its own growth-inflation tradeoffs, potentially creating currency volatility as markets digest the data flow across regions [6].

The data delay dynamic creates a bifurcated market environment where traders must simultaneously position for multiple scenarios. First, the five-day gap between the originally scheduled release date and the actual February 11 release date extends uncertainty windows, potentially constraining risk appetite in interest-rate-sensitive asset classes until clarity emerges. Second, the fact that data collection occurred reduces concerns about permanent information loss—unlike the October-November 2025 shutdown where BLS was unable to collect responses, this instance involves compiled but unreleased data [2].

Cross-regional data coordination becomes particularly important this week, as investors seek to triangulate global growth trends. The convergence or divergence between U.S. labor market conditions, European GDP performance, and Asian growth data (as highlighted in the original event) will inform asset allocation decisions across equity, fixed income, and currency markets.

The most significant risk stems from the potential for unexpected strength in the delayed jobs data, which could further delay Fed rate cut expectations and pressure bond prices and growth-oriented equity sectors. The current market pricing of two to three rate cuts assumes labor market deterioration that may not materialize, creating downside risk for rate-sensitive assets if data surprises to the upside [3][4].

Conversely, if the jobs report confirms or exceeds expectations of softening labor conditions, the resulting shift in Fed policy expectations could benefit fixed income assets and rate-sensitive sectors. The extended data vacuum has created compressed positioning, meaning any clear signal could generate outsized moves for prepared market participants.

The February 11 jobs report release represents the highest-consequence event, with Fed official speeches throughout the week potentially offering interim policy signals. Portfolio adjustments should be completed before the release to avoid execution challenges during elevated volatility.

The Week Ahead for FX and Bonds presents a convergence of high-impact macroeconomic events centered on delayed U.S. labor data. The partial government shutdown’s conclusion on February 3 has allowed BLS operations to resume, with the January jobs report now scheduled for February 11 release. Federal Reserve policy expectations remain finely balanced between two and three projected rate cuts for 2026, with the timing heavily dependent on incoming labor market and inflation indicators.

European GDP data releases will complement the U.S. focus by providing global growth context. Market participants should anticipate elevated volatility around the rescheduled jobs release, with positioning adjustments warranted for interest-rate-sensitive portfolios. The integration of U.S., European, and Asian data releases this week will collectively inform monetary policy expectations across major central banks.