Greenwoods Capital's Strategic Rotation: From AI Semiconductors to Cash-Rich Tech Giants

Based on my comprehensive analysis of Greenwoods Capital’s (景林资产) portfolio shifts and broader institutional sentiment data, here is a detailed assessment of what this significant reallocation signals about the investment landscape.

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Greenwoods Capital’s Q4 2025 13F filing reveals a

[0]:

Portfolio Action	Details
Alphabet Position	Elevated to top holding (previously #2)
NVIDIA Position	Reduced by 60%+ during Q4 2025
Meta Position	Reduced by ~20% (dropped to #2 holding)
Total AUM	$4.04 billion in U.S. equities

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The 60%+ reduction in NVIDIA exposure reflects growing institutional concern about

in AI-focused semiconductor stocks [0]:

Metric	NVIDIA	Alphabet	Implication
P/E Ratio	45.38x	29.38x	NVIDIA trades at 54.5% premium
P/B Ratio	37.86x	9.35x	NVIDIA trades at 305% premium
1-Year Performance	+43.86%	+67.96%	Lower valuation = better returns

This divergence is particularly striking given that

[0].

Research indicates that

that institutional investors are increasingly scrutinizing [1]:

• OpenAI’s cash burn:
  $9 billion in 2025
  (projected to reach
  $17 billion in 2026
  )
• NVIDIA’s potential
  $100 billion investment
  in OpenAI
• Concerns that OpenAI’s $20 billion run-rate revenue may not justify infrastructure spending levels

Deutsche Bank analysts have noted that

for AI investments, with investors shifting from asking “how fast can it grow?” to “what’s the return?” [1].

Perhaps most telling is the

that highlights structural efficiency differences [0]:

Company	ROE	Interpretation
Alphabet	35.00%	Strong capital efficiency
NVIDIA	1.04%	Concerning return inefficiency

than NVIDIA, a metric that increasingly matters to institutional allocators focused on long-term capital preservation [0].

Company	Revenue Mix	Risk Profile
Alphabet	Search (68.5%), Cloud (24.1%), Network (7.4%)	Diversified, cash-generating core
NVIDIA	Data Center (87.9%), Gaming (9.2%)	Concentrated, growth-dependent

Alphabet’s diversified business model provides

during periods of AI investment uncertainty, making it more attractive to risk-conscious institutional investors [0].

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1. Big Tech Capex Commitment Remains Robust
   : Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to spend approximately
   $650 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026
   , representing a 60% year-over-year increase [1]. This provides near-term support for AI-related equities.

2. Jensen Huang’s Defense
   : NVIDIA’s CEO has stated that AI spending is
   “appropriate and sustainable”
   and will continue for
   7-8 years
   , with demand described as “sky high” [1].

3. Earnings Momentum
   : NVIDIA continues to deliver positive surprises (+3.17% EPS beat in Q3 FY2026), though valuation concerns persist [0].

The Greenwoods Capital shift suggests institutions are

to:

Strategic Priority	Rationale
Reduce single-stock AI concentration	Protect against potential AI spending slowdowns
Favor established cash generators	Alphabet’s $113.9B revenue provides stability
Cap discipline over growth at any price	Rejecting sky-high valuations (NVIDIA’s 45x P/E)
Quality factor tilt	Alphabet’s 35% ROE vs. NVIDIA’s 1% ROE

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Time Period	NVIDIA	Alphabet	Winner
YTD 2026	-1.98%	+2.12%	Alphabet (+4.10 pp)
6-Month	+3.18%	+64.12%	Alphabet (+60.94 pp)
1-Year	+43.86%	+67.96%	Alphabet (+24.10 pp)
Analyst Buy Ratings	73.4%	82.7%	Alphabet (more consensus)
Upside to Target	+46.9%	+13.4%	NVIDIA (more potential, more risk)

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Greenwoods Capital’s

signals a :

1. From Growth at Any Price to Valuation Discipline
   : The market is no longer rewarding pure AI exposure regardless of cost.

2. From Single-Stock Concentration to Diversified Quality
   : Established cash-rich tech giants with diversified revenue streams and strong ROE profiles are gaining institutional favor.

3. From Hype Cycles to Sustainable Returns
   : Concerns about OpenAI’s cash burn, NVIDIA’s counter-party exposure, and the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending are driving a “quality tilt.”

4. Near-Term Support vs. Medium-Term Caution
   : While Big Tech’s $650 billion AI capex commitment provides near-term support for AI equities, the institutional community is proactively positioning for potential normalization.

The

: Institutional investors are demonstrating increased sophistication by , favoring cash-rich technology giants with proven profitability metrics over pure-play AI beneficiaries that have reached extreme valuations.

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[0] Ginlix API Data (Company Overview, Financial Metrics, Performance Data)

[1] Baptist Research - “Is The NVIDIA AI Hype OVER? OpenAI’s Cash Burn Sparks Market Skepticism” (https://baptistaresearch.com/nvidia-ai-stock-outlook-openai-cash-burn-market-skepticism/)

[1] CNBC - “Nvidia rises 7% as Jensen Huang says $660 billion capex buildout is sustainable” (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/nvidia-rises-7percent-as-ceo-says-660-billion-capex-buildout-is-sustainable.html)

[1] Bloomberg - “Nvidia CEO Says AI Capital Spending Is Appropriate, Sustainable” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/nvidia-ceo-says-ai-capital-spending-is-appropriate-sustainable)