Expedia Group (EXPE): Outperform Rating Analysis & Competitive Positioning

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Evercore ISI has maintained its

rating on Expedia Group (NASDAQ:EXPE) with a price target of , representing significant upside potential despite competitive pressures in the online travel industry. This analysis examines the key factors supporting this bullish stance and compares Expedia’s competitive position against Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Airbnb (ABNB).

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Expedia trades at

, making it the most undervalued among major online travel agencies[0]:

Company	P/E Ratio	Relative Valuation
Expedia (EXPE)	21.19x	Most undervalued
Booking Holdings (BKNG)	27.44x	29% premium
Airbnb (ABNB)	28.70x	35% premium

Evercore notes that Expedia’s valuation remains approximately

despite strong 2025 performance, presenting an attractive entry point for investors[1][2].

Expedia’s new CEO Ariane Gorin has driven meaningful operational improvements in 2025[3]:

• Q3 FY2025 Revenue
  : $4.41 billion (+3.0% vs. estimates)
• Q3 FY2025 EPS
  : $7.57 (+8.6% vs. $6.97 estimate)
• Stronger room night growth
  compared to prior periods
• Improved marketing efficiency
  reducing customer acquisition costs

The company’s 2025 turnaround has demonstrated clear recovery momentum, with the CEO projecting 2026 will be “very big” for U.S. tourism[3][4].

Despite industry-wide challenges, Expedia has delivered superior returns[0]:

Metric	EXPE	BKNG	ABNB
1-Year Return	+17.14%	-13.01%	-10.15%
1-Month Return	-19.75%	-22.17%	-12.75%
YTD Return	-15.96%	-19.70%	-8.65%

Expedia’s

of over against key competitors demonstrates its recovery potential.

• Evercore ISI Target
  : $350.00 (47% upside from current levels)
• Consensus Target
  : $270.00 (13.5% upside)
• Target Range
  : $200.00 - $330.00[0][2]

With 44.6% of analysts rating EXPE a “Buy” and a consensus price target suggesting meaningful upside, the stock offers compelling risk-reward.

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The online travel agency (OTA) industry shows clear market leadership dynamics[5][6]:

Company	Market Share	Position
Booking Holdings	~40%	Market Leader
Airbnb	~18-19%	Growing Sharply
Expedia Group	~15%	#2 Position Under Pressure
Trip.com Group	Regional	Asian Markets

: Booking Holdings and Airbnb have gained market share since the pandemic, while Expedia and others have experienced share erosion[6]. However, Expedia remains a significant #2 player with strong brand recognition.

Metric	EXPE	BKNG	Implication
Market Cap	$27.82B	$137.78B	BKNG is 5x larger
Operating Margin	11.60%	32.74%	BKNG 2.8x more efficient
Net Margin	9.66%	19.37%	BKNG 2x profitability
Current Ratio	0.74	1.33	BKNG better liquidity
P/E Ratio	21.19x	27.44x	EXPE 23% discount

:

• Trades at significant discount to market leader
• Stronger presence in North American market
• More diverse brand portfolio (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo)

:

• Superior profitability and margins
• Better liquidity position
• Dominance in international markets
• Higher ROE (when positive)

Metric	EXPE	ABNB	Implication
Q3 Revenue	$4.41B	$4.09B	Similar scale
Operating Margin	11.60%	22.65%	ABNB 2x more efficient
Net Margin	9.66%	22.03%	ABNB significantly higher
ROE	1.16%	32.14%	ABNB vastly superior
Beta	1.38	1.10	ABNB less volatile
P/E Ratio	21.19x	28.70x	EXPE 26% discount

:

• Lower valuation multiple
• Broader service offerings (lodging + air + packages)
• Established brand portfolio

:

• Superior profitability metrics
• Better return on equity
• Lower volatility profile
• Stronger EMEA presence (48% of revenue)[0]

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┌────────────────────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐
│     Factor             │  EXPE    │   BKNG   │   ABNB   │
├────────────────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤
│ Valuation Attractiveness│   ★★★    │    ★★    │    ★★    │
│ Margin Profile         │    ★★    │   ★★★    │   ★★★    │
│ Market Share           │    ★★    │   ★★★    │   ★★★    │
│ Liquidity              │    ★     │   ★★★    │   ★★★    │
│ Growth Momentum        │   ★★★    │    ★★    │    ★★    │
│ Balance Sheet Strength │    ★★    │   ★★★    │   ★★★    │
│ Analyst Sentiment      │   ★★★    │   ★★★    │    ★★    │
├────────────────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤
│ OVERALL RATING         │   19/28  │  23/28   │  22/28   │
└────────────────────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘

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• Trend
  : Sideways/No clear trend
• Support Level
  : $232.11
• Resistance Level
  : $267.47
• Beta
  : 1.38 (vs. SPY)
• Trading Range
  : $232-$267

The stock is currently trading near the bottom of its established range, potentially offering a favorable entry point.

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1. Market Share Erosion
   : Expedia continues to lose ground to Booking Holdings and Airbnb[6]
2. Margin Pressure
   : Operating margin (11.6%) significantly lags peers (22-33%)
3. Liquidity Concerns
   : Current ratio of 0.74 indicates potential short-term financial stress
4. Marketing Intensity
   : Heavy advertising spend required to compete with larger rivals
5. Google Canvas/SEO Risk
   : Competition from Google’s travel search features

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Evercore ISI’s

rating on Expedia is supported by a confluence of factors:

1. Valuation Arbitrage
   : Trading at 21.2x P/E (vs. 27-29x for peers) with ~20% upside to consensus
2. Turnaround Validation
   : New leadership delivering earnings beats and improved operational metrics
3. Relative Strength
   : Outperforming peers on a one-year basis despite competitive pressures
4. Recovery Catalyst
   : 2026 expected to be a strong year for travel demand

While Expedia faces margin and market share challenges versus Booking Holdings and Airbnb, its

and make it a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the travel sector’s rebound at a reasonable price.

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[0] 金灵API - Expedia Group Company Overview
[1] Intellectia.ai - Evercore ISI Names Amazon and Expedia as Top Long Picks for 2026
[2] Investing.com - Expedia Stock Rating Reiterated at Outperform by Evercore
[3] Hospitality Today - Expedia’s 2025 Turnaround Gains Momentum
[4] Fortune - Expedia Group CEO on 2026 Outlook
[5] CSIMarket - EXPE Market Share vs Competitors Q3 2025
[6] Skift - 10 Biggest Online Travel Agencies
[7] 金灵API - Expedia Technical Analysis