Retail Sales Stall, Coca-Cola Earnings Miss, Bitcoin Slides 50% from Peak - Market Analysis February 10, 2026

This analysis examines three interconnected market developments covered in Kevin Green’s February 10, 2026 video report: the stagnation in U.S. retail sales during December 2025, Coca-Cola’s mixed quarterly earnings results, and the continuing slump in Bitcoin prices [1]. These developments collectively signal potential weakening in consumer demand and risk appetite as the economy transitions into 2026, with implications spanning equity sectors, cryptocurrency markets, and broader economic policy considerations.

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The U.S. retail sales report for December 2025 revealed unexpected stagnation, with headline sales coming in flat at $735 billion month-over-month [2][3][4]. This represented a significant deceleration from November’s revised 0.2% growth (originally reported as 0.6%), signaling that the holiday shopping season provided less economic momentum than anticipated. The Commerce Department data highlighted a challenging comparison against the prior month’s outperformance, which Kevin Green specifically identified as a factor weighing on the latest reading [1].

The core retail sales metric—which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services—contracted by 0.1% in December after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in November [3]. This underlying weakness suggests that consumer spending momentum was already decelerating before the calendar flipped to 2026, despite Q3’s robust 3.5% annualized consumer spending growth [5]. The divergence between headline and core measures indicates that auto and gas sales may have provided temporary support that masked broader consumer caution.

The retail sales data carries significant implications for multiple sectors. Consumer discretionary stocks showed relative resilience during this period, with the Consumer Cyclical sector advancing 1.58% [0], suggesting some rotation into cyclical spending despite the weak retail headline. However, the Consumer Defensive sector’s 1.10% decline reflected market concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending in the face of potential economic headwinds [0]. This sector rotation pattern indicates that investors were processing the retail data as a signal of changing consumer priorities rather than an outright contraction in spending power.

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Coca-Cola reported mixed fourth-quarter results for 2025 on February 10, 2026, with the beverage giant beating earnings per share estimates while missing revenue expectations [6][7][8]. The company reported revenue of $11.8 billion, falling short of analyst expectations, though organic revenue growth of 5% year-over-year demonstrated continued pricing power [6]. Segment performance revealed a nuanced picture: Coke Zero Sugar volume surged 13%, while namebrand soda volume increased 1%, but juice, dairy, and plant-based categories declined 3% [6][9].

The stock’s approximately 2% decline following the earnings announcement reflected investor disappointment with both the revenue miss and management’s cautious forward guidance [6]. Coca-Cola forecasts organic revenue growth of 4-5% for 2026, with comparable EPS growth of 7-8%—guidance that analysts viewed as conservative relative to expectations of 5.3% revenue growth [6][9]. This cautious outlook aligns with comments from both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo regarding demand challenges from budget-conscious consumers reducing grocery and dining spending.

The Consumer Defensive sector’s position among the worst performers on February 10, declining 1.10% [0], underscores how Coca-Cola’s results weighed on the broader consumer staples space. Kevin Green noted in his analysis that the consumer staples sector faces pressure from consumers who are becoming more selective about spending [1]. The earnings trajectory for major consumer staples companies will be closely watched in coming quarters to determine whether this represents a temporary slowdown or a more fundamental shift in consumer behavior.

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Bitcoin has experienced one of its most significant corrections in recent history, declining to approximately $61,000-$69,000 by February 10, 2026 [10][11][12]. This represents roughly a 50% drop from the cryptocurrency’s all-time peak of $126,000 reached in October 2025, translating to approximately $2 trillion in erased market value from a peak market capitalization of $4.379 trillion [10][11]. The cryptocurrency briefly broke below $61,000 earlier in the week amid an intensifying sell-off that affected broader risk assets [11].

Kevin Green highlighted $55,000 as a critical support level that Bitcoin could potentially retest [1]. This technical level represents not merely a price point but a psychological barrier that could determine whether the correction deepens into a more prolonged bear market or stabilizes for a potential recovery. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets—particularly U.S. technology stocks—has strengthened during this sell-off, with market observers noting that Bitcoin is now “trading on pure liquidity and capital flows” rather than narrative-driven momentum [12].

Multiple factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s decline. U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs have shifted from net buyers to net sellers, removing a key source of institutional demand that had supported prices throughout 2025 [12]. The broader crypto market has lost $800 billion in the past month alone [11], reflecting a cascade of deleveraging and risk-off sentiment. Precious metals have also experienced volatility, suggesting a broad reassessment of risk assets rather than cryptocurrency-specific concerns [12].

Related equities have felt the pressure, with Coinbase (COIN) shares declining 0.41% to $166.56 on February 10 [0]. The NASDAQ’s weakness earlier in the week—which saw the index hit its lowest level in more than two months—has reinforced the correlation between cryptocurrency and technology sector performance [11]. This interconnection means that Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will likely depend as much on broader risk asset dynamics as on cryptocurrency-specific developments.

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The convergence of flat retail sales, cautious corporate guidance, and cryptocurrency decline paints a picture of a market environment where risk appetite is contracting. The 0.1% decline in core retail sales signals underlying fragility in consumer spending that may not be captured by headline numbers buoyed by specific category performance [3]. The base effect from November’s outperformance, while noted by Kevin Green [1], does not fully explain the deceleration, suggesting genuine softening in demand as consumers approach 2026 with greater caution.

Federal Reserve policy considerations become increasingly relevant in this context. The retail sales data will factor into the Fed’s assessment of consumer spending trends as it considers rate decisions in 2026. If consumer spending continues to decelerate, it could influence the policy trajectory and have implications for multiple asset classes, from equities to cryptocurrencies.

The consumer staples sector faces dual pressures from top-line revenue challenges and potential margin compression. Coca-Cola’s reliance on pricing actions to drive organic growth [6] becomes increasingly difficult as consumers demonstrate sensitivity to price increases. The 13% volume growth in Coke Zero Sugar represents a success story within the portfolio, but declining juice, dairy, and plant-based categories suggest category-specific challenges that may require strategic response [6].

The guidance from both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo regarding demand challenges from budget-conscious consumers [9] suggests that these pressures are sector-wide rather than company-specific. Investors will be monitoring first-quarter 2026 results closely to assess whether early-year trends continue the patterns observed in December 2025 or whether seasonal factors and resolution of economic uncertainties produce different outcomes.

Bitcoin’s 50% decline from peak valuations represents a significant correction with structural implications [10][11]. The shift in institutional ETF flows from net buying to net selling [12] removes a crucial support mechanism that had characterized the 2024-2025 market environment. The $55,000 support level cited by Green [1] represents a critical technical threshold—if breached, it could trigger further selling from algorithmic and momentum-based strategies.

The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets creates a feedback loop where weakness in technology stocks reinforces cryptocurrency declines and vice versa [12]. This interconnection means that cryptocurrency market participants should monitor equity market developments, particularly in growth and technology sectors, as leading indicators of potential cryptocurrency direction.

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The market developments of February 10, 2026 reveal several interconnected themes. Consumer spending demonstrated deceleration entering 2026, with the flat retail sales reading representing a meaningful slowdown from Q3’s robust growth trajectory. Corporate America is responding with cautious guidance, as exemplified by Coca-Cola’s conservative 2026 outlook that failed to satisfy investor expectations despite meeting or exceeding earnings estimates. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market correction continues, with Bitcoin trading at roughly half its all-time peak and facing potential technical testing of major support levels.

The sector rotation observable in February 10 trading—with Consumer Cyclical advancing while Consumer Defensive declined [0]—suggests nuanced investor positioning rather than outright risk rejection. This rotation pattern may continue as markets assess the sustainability of consumer spending trends and corporate earnings trajectories in a potentially slower-growth environment.

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Several developments warrant close attention in the coming weeks. January retail sales data will provide the next indicator of whether the December stall represents a temporary pause or the beginning of a more sustained consumer spending deceleration. Coca-Cola’s first-quarter 2026 trajectory will test whether the cautious guidance reflects appropriate risk management or overly conservative planning given the company’s historical performance. Bitcoin’s technical levels—particularly the $70,000 resistance and $55,000 support levels [1][11]—will determine near-term cryptocurrency market direction and broader risk asset sentiment.

The interplay between Federal Reserve policy, consumer spending trends, and market valuations will remain a critical framework for assessing 2026 market prospects. Cryptocurrency ETF flows and whale activity around current price levels will indicate whether the correction is producing capitulation that could eventually support stabilization or continued institutional selling that extends the downturn.

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The analysis reveals several risk factors that warrant attention from market participants. Consumer spending indicators suggest potential weakness entering 2026, with the flat retail sales reading and declining core measures signaling underlying fragility. Corporate guidance from consumer staples companies reflects caution about budget-conscious consumers, which may indicate sustained pressure on revenue growth. Cryptocurrency market losses approaching $2 trillion from peak valuations [10][11] demonstrate the magnitude of risk asset repricing underway.

These risks should be considered alongside mitigating factors: the Consumer Cyclical sector’s resilience suggests some consumer spending continues, corporate balance sheets remain generally strong, and the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated historical resilience following major corrections. Market conditions suggest elevated volatility risk due to the confluence of consumer slowdown, corporate caution, and cryptocurrency correction, warranting heightened attention to position sizing and risk management.

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This analysis presents factual information, market context, and risk identification based on cited sources. It does not constitute investment advice, trading recommendations, or financial guidance. Market participants should conduct independent analysis and consult appropriate professionals before making investment decisions.