Nasdaq's Battle for Mega IPOs: OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic Listing Competition Intensifies

Nasdaq’s public acknowledgment of competing for mega-IPOs from OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic represents a significant strategic positioning effort in what promises to be the most consequential listing competition in exchange history. These three companies represent potential combined IPO valuations approaching $2 trillion, a figure that would dwarf the entire 2025 U.S. IPO market combined and establish entirely new valuation benchmarks for artificial intelligence and space-native companies [1][2].

Nelson Griggs’s appearance on “The Claman Countdown” signals Nasdaq’s proactive approach to securing these transformative technology listings. The competition with the New York Stock Exchange extends beyond mere prestige—securing these IPOs would generate substantial listing fees, enhance exchange visibility, and establish Nasdaq as the premier venue for next-generation technology companies [2]. The NYSE has historically attracted major industrial and financial companies, while Nasdaq has dominated technology listings, making this competition a strategic battle for market identity and future relevance.

SpaceX has emerged as the most proximate listing opportunity, with the company targeting a June 2026 IPO at a $1.5 trillion valuation, seeking to raise up to $50 billion in what would be the largest IPO in global history [3]. The June timing suggests SpaceX leadership believes market conditions will be sufficiently stable to absorb such a massive offering. SpaceX’s dual structure—combining satellite internet operations (Starlink) with space exploration ventures—creates unique valuation complexities that will require sophisticated investor education and positioning efforts.

OpenAI’s IPO timeline extends from 2026 into 2027, with Morgan Stanley leading underwriter odds at 76% according to prediction market data [5]. The company’s potential $1 trillion-plus valuation would establish OpenAI as one of the most valuable technology companies globally at the time of listing, despite ongoing debates about the profitability structure of AI companies and regulatory considerations surrounding its unique governance arrangement. Anthropic, meanwhile, remains in earlier IPO preparation phases but is expected to pursue a listing within the same general timeframe, potentially valuing the company in the hundreds of billions range [4].

The current market environment presents a nuanced backdrop for these potential mega-IPOs. As of February 10, 2026, the NASDAQ Composite has underperformed broader indices, declining 1.15% while the S&P 500 gained 0.36% and the Dow Jones surged 2.89% [0]. This sector rotation away from technology names may reflect investor caution about valuations in the AI sector or broader macroeconomic concerns that could influence IPO market receptivity.

Nasdaq’s 4.39% stock decline on elevated volume indicates that market participants are actively processing the implications of both the IPO competition and broader market dynamics [0]. The elevated trading volume suggests institutional investors may be repositioning based on expectations regarding Nasdaq’s ability to secure these landmark listings. The stock’s position near the lower end of its 52-week range adds urgency to monitoring how these competitive efforts translate into tangible listing wins.

The competition for mega-IPOs represents a fundamental test of Nasdaq’s value proposition as the technology-focused exchange. Successfully attracting all three companies would validate Nasdaq’s position as the natural home for transformative AI and space companies, while losing significant listings to the NYSE could prompt a strategic reassessment of how the exchange positions itself for future technology listings. The outcome will likely influence how both exchanges approach future high-profile listings across emerging technology sectors.

Regardless of which exchange ultimately secures these listings, the IPOs will establish critical valuation benchmarks that will reshape sector analysis models for AI companies, space technology firms, and related industries [1][2]. Investors and analysts will need to develop new frameworks for evaluating private AI companies based on public market comparables that emerge from these offerings. The successful execution of these IPOs could unlock significant capital for the broader AI ecosystem by providing liquidity events and valuation reference points for private market investors.

The underwriter selection process for these mega-IPOs has become a competitive arena in itself, with Morgan Stanley’s dominant position in OpenAI underwriter odds (76%) suggesting market expectations about deal leadership [5]. The distribution of underwriter spots across major investment banks will generate significant revenue and prestige, while also influencing how these banks approach related advisory work in the AI and space sectors. The competitive dynamics between Nasdaq and NYSE also extend to their relationships with leading investment banks that advise these companies on listing venue decisions.

Any official filing announcements from SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic regarding registration statements or listing venue decisions could trigger significant market movements in NDAQ shares and related sector ETFs [5]. Investors should monitor SEC filing databases and company press releases for early indicators of listing intentions.

The SpaceX June 2026 IPO target provides a defined timeline for assessing market absorption capacity and investor appetite for mega-IPOs [3]. Positive reception to earlier filing announcements could improve sentiment toward subsequent offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, creating a favorable cascading effect.

Successfully securing even one of these mega-IPOs would provide Nasdaq with significant competitive advantages, including enhanced reputation, increased trading volume, and strengthened relationships with major technology companies considering future listings.

Market conditions remain a critical variable for all three potential IPOs [3][4]. Adverse market conditions could delay listings or force companies to accept lower valuations than currently anticipated, potentially reducing the strategic value of securing these listings for Nasdaq.

The NYSE’s active pursuit of the same listings means Nasdaq’s success is far from guaranteed [2]. Companies may ultimately choose the NYSE based on historical precedent, perceived prestige, or specific strategic considerations that favor a different exchange environment.

The combined capital raising needs of these three companies—potentially exceeding $75 billion—could strain market liquidity if attempted in close proximity [1][3]. Regulatory scrutiny and market stability concerns may influence timing decisions and listing structures.

If public market valuations for AI companies decline significantly before these IPOs occur, companies may face pressure to accept lower valuations than current private market pricing suggests, potentially creating friction with existing investors and affecting the attractiveness of the listings.

The fundamental competitive dynamic centers on three companies representing potential combined IPO valuations approaching $2 trillion: SpaceX targeting June 2026 at a $1.5 trillion valuation seeking up to $50 billion, OpenAI targeting 2026-2027 with potential valuation exceeding $1 trillion, and Anthropic in earlier IPO preparation phases [1][3][4]. Nasdaq President Nelson Griggs’s public discussion of this competition indicates strategic prioritization of these landmark listings, though success depends on numerous factors including company preferences, underwriter recommendations, and market conditions [2].

Market data reveals significant divergence in current sector performance, with Nasdaq underperforming broader indices by approximately 1.5 percentage points on the day of this announcement [0]. NDAQ’s 4.39% decline on volume more than double the average suggests institutional investors are actively assessing the competitive implications. The June 2026 SpaceX target provides the most concrete timeline, while OpenAI and Anthropic remain on 2026-2027 trajectories pending market conditions and internal readiness [3][4].

Morgan Stanley’s positioning as the leading underwriter candidate for OpenAI (76% odds) provides insight into deal structuring expectations, though final underwriter selections remain subject to negotiation and market conditions [5]. The outcome of this competition will have lasting implications for exchange positioning in technology listings and may influence how both Nasdaq and the NYSE approach future high-profile IPO opportunities across emerging sectors.