NASDAQ 100 Seasonality Analysis: March 2026 Peak Forecast

On February 11, 2026, FXEmpire published a comprehensive seasonality analysis forecasting that the NASDAQ 100 would reach an important peak of approximately $26,600 around March 18, 2026 [1]. This analysis, developed by Dr. Arnout Ter Schure, founder of Intelligent Investing LLC, integrates two primary methodological frameworks: historical mid-term election year seasonal patterns and Elliott Wave Principle (EW) technical analysis incorporating Fibonacci extensions.

The timing of this forecast carries particular significance given that the NASDAQ 100 has demonstrated limited price progress since October 2025, with the index currently trading at early October 2025 levels in the range of 22,900-23,300 [1]. Dr. Ter Schure characterizes this prolonged consolidation period as having “discombobulated” price action, creating uncertainty about the index’s immediate trajectory. The forecast’s arrival at a potential inflection point—where seasonal patterns and technical analysis converge—provides a structured framework for interpreting near-term market dynamics.

The NASDAQ 100’s position as of February 11, 2026, provides essential context for evaluating the projected March peak. Recent market data indicates the index traded around 23,061, representing a substantial discount to the $26,600 target [0]. Over the preceding two weeks, the index exhibited notable volatility, oscillating between 22,460 and 23,592, reflecting the underlying uncertainty that the seasonality analysis aims to address [2].

A particularly significant technical event occurred on February 6, 2026, when the index reached a low of 22,586 before staging a 1.79% rally [2]. This date aligns precisely with the seasonal bottom pattern identified in Dr. Ter Schure’s analysis, providing initial validation for the forecast methodology. The elevated trading volume accompanying this price action—averaging over 9 billion shares daily—suggests meaningful participation by institutional investors and lends credibility to the technical signals [2].

Sector-level analysis reveals important divergences that contextualize the NASDAQ 100’s movement. The Technology sector declined 1.05% on February 11, underperforming the broader market, while defensive sectors including Basic Materials (+1.78%) and Communication Services (+1.58%) demonstrated strength [3]. This sector rotation pattern may reflect pre-election uncertainty, as investors historically gravitate toward defensive positioning during periods of political ambiguity. The technology-heavy composition of the NASDAQ 100—concentrated in mega-cap names including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA—may amplify both the upside potential and downside risks associated with the projected March peak.

Dr. Ter Schure’s Elliott Wave analysis establishes a sophisticated technical framework for the $26,600 target. The analysis traces the index’s major wave structure since the 2020 bottom, identifying distinct phases with precise Fibonacci extension targets:

The initial Wave 1 (2020-2021) propelled the index from 6,772 to 16,765, generating 9,993 points of movement [1]. Wave 2 found its bottom at 10,440 in October 2022, establishing the baseline for subsequent extension calculations. Wave 3, which peaked at 26,108 in October 2025, narrowly missed its theoretical 1.618x Fibonacci extension target by approximately 500 points—a detail of considerable significance for the current forecast [1].

The projection of $26,608 represents a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of Wave 1, measured from the Wave 2 bottom [1]. This target derives from a historical pattern wherein “when the 3rd wave misses its target, the B-wave of the 4th wave often does the trick” [1]. Dr. Ter Schure provides supporting evidence from multiple historical instances—July 2011, November 2015, October 2018, and February 2020—all featuring irregular B-waves that achieved what their preceding Wave 3 counterparts could not, followed by significant C-wave declines.

The analysis identifies a series of technical warning levels that serve as milestones for monitoring the rally’s progression: 24,854 (first warning), 25,112 (second warning), 25,418 (third warning), 25,840 (fourth warning), and 26,182 (final warning) [1]. These levels provide a structured framework for validating or challenging the bullish thesis as price action unfolds. Notably, the author suggests that overlapping with the 25,418 warning level “tells us the more direct rally to around February 15 is the most likely path,” implying that the path to the March peak may not be linear [1].

The seasonal component of Dr. Ter Schure’s analysis draws upon historical patterns specific to mid-term election years. The framework identifies a consistent seasonal structure with distinct phases:

Pattern Phase	Expected Timing
Seasonal Bottom	February 5
Initial Rally Peak	February 15
Minor Pullback	February 21
Major Peak	March 18
Decline Period	March through October

The alignment between the observed February 6 bottom and the seasonal pattern’s expected timing provides initial confirmation of the forecast’s validity. The subsequent progression through the identified phases—toward the February 15 initial peak, the February 21 pullback, and ultimately the March 18 major peak—offers a temporal roadmap for monitoring the index’s movement [1].

Broader historical analysis of mid-term election year market behavior provides additional context for evaluating the NASDAQ 100 forecast. Capital Group’s analysis of over 90 years of market data indicates that mid-term election years typically exhibit lower average returns in the initial months, accompanied by increased volatility, particularly in the weeks leading up to the election [4]. However, the post-midterm period has historically demonstrated strength, with average one-year returns following mid-term elections reaching 15.4% since 1950 [4].

CME Group’s analysis of implied volatility provides complementary perspective. Options market data indicates that implied volatility for Nasdaq-100 options rises to 15%+ by March and continues climbing toward 20% as mid-term elections approach [5]. This elevated volatility premium reflects uncertainty pricing in the options market and suggests that market participants anticipate significant price movements during this period.

U.S. Bank Asset Management’s analysis of 125 years of data across 31 mid-term cycles reveals that stock performance before midterms has been mixed when controlling for economic factors, while post-midterm average returns have historically been strong at 13.6% over 12 months [6]. This pattern—weakness preceding midterms followed by strength thereafter—aligns with the FXEmpire forecast’s projection of a March peak followed by correction.

The NASDAQ 100’s technology-heavy composition represents an important distinction from the broader market analyses cited above. The index’s concentration in mega-cap technology stocks may amplify both the seasonal patterns and the volatility dynamics observed during mid-term election years. This concentration risk represents a structural factor that investors should consider when evaluating the forecast’s applicability to technology-exposed portfolios.

Integrating the various analytical dimensions reveals a nuanced picture with both bullish and bearish considerations:

: The February 6 bottom aligns precisely with seasonal patterns, providing initial validation. The Elliott Wave target at $26,608 represents a historically significant Fibonacci extension level. Historical post-midterm returns (13-15%) suggest the fundamental backdrop supports equity markets following election resolution. The current Fed easing cycle may provide additional monetary policy support for equity valuations.

: The Wave 3 already missed its Fibonacci target by 500 points, suggesting the B-wave target may also prove elusive. The sideways price action acknowledged by the author introduces uncertainty into the Elliott Wave count. Current technology sector weakness (1.05% decline on February 11) may indicate near-term headwinds. Unforeseen macro events—political developments, policy announcements, or external shocks—can override seasonal patterns. The inherent limitations of seasonality analysis, including limited sample sizes and non-stationary market conditions, warrant continued skepticism.

Several limitations warrant acknowledgment when evaluating this forecast:

The sample size for election-year seasonality analysis remains constrained, with typically only 6-8 mid-term cycles available since the NASDAQ 100’s modern inception. Elliott Wave analysis involves interpretation, and the author explicitly acknowledges “many paths” are possible with sideways price action [1]. The NASDAQ 100’s composition has changed significantly over time, introducing non-stationarity into historical comparisons. The FXEmpire analysis does not incorporate current Fed policy, tariff impacts, or earnings season expectations, representing potential blind spots in the forecast framework.

The forecast also lacks confidence intervals or statistical probability assessments for the $26,600 target, and actual historical NASDAQ 100 returns during mid-term years are not specifically quantified in the analysis.

The analysis reveals several risk factors that warrant attention:

: CME data indicates implied volatility rising toward 20% as mid-term elections approach [5], suggesting option markets price significant uncertainty. Elevated volatility implies both profit potential and loss amplification.

: The forecast explicitly anticipates a significant correction after March 18, with the author noting “it is all downhill until October” [1]. This anticipated decline represents potentially sharp downside that investors should prepare for.

: The sideways price action makes definitive wave counting difficult [1]. The W-3 target miss raises concerns about the reliability of the B-wave projection. Warning level breaches could invalidate the bullish thesis.

: The NASDAQ 100’s heavy weighting in mega-cap technology stocks amplifies sector-specific risks and may exacerbate both rallies and corrections.

: Historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, especially given structural market changes and unprecedented current conditions. Election years introduce unforeseeable events that can override established patterns.

For investors seeking to track the evolution of this forecast, several key dates and metrics warrant attention:

represents the initial seasonal peak date, with price action around this timeframe serving as an early validation signal. marks the expected minor pullback date in the seasonal pattern. The serves as a critical inflection point that validates the bullish thesis. for major technology constituents could significantly impact the index’s trajectory. and any shifts in monetary stance merit monitoring. through sustained expanding volume during rallies strengthens technical signals.

---

The convergence of seasonal patterns and Elliott Wave analysis provides a structured framework for interpreting the NASDAQ 100’s near-term trajectory, though investors should treat this forecast as one input among many in the decision-making process.

The February 6 bottom’s alignment with the seasonal pattern represents an important validation point, though the full forecast remains unproven. The historical precedent of B-waves achieving what preceding Wave 3s could not provides theoretical support for the $26,600 target, though the 500-point miss on the W-3 target introduces caution.

The mid-term election year context introduces elevated uncertainty that is already manifesting in rising implied volatility and defensive sector rotations. The anticipated correction from March through October aligns with historical “sell in May” patterns during election years, suggesting the forecast’s bearish follow-through is grounded in established seasonal dynamics.

---

The FXEmpire seasonality forecast represents a disciplined, multi-methodology approach combining historical seasonal patterns with Elliott Wave technical analysis. The $26,600 target implies approximately 15% upside from current NASDAQ 100 levels around 23,061, with timing focused around March 18, 2026 [1].

The analysis carries inherent limitations related to sample size, Elliott Wave subjectivity, and potential for unforeseen macro events to override seasonal patterns. The forecast explicitly anticipates significant downside thereafter, consistent with historical mid-term election year patterns.

The most prudent application of this analysis is as one input among many in the investment decision-making process, with careful attention to the identified warning levels and confirmation from evolving price action.

---

: The projected 15% upside to $26,600 by March 18 represents meaningful profit potential for positioned investors, with the February 6 bottom providing an attractive entry point validation.

: Elevated volatility approaching 20%, concentration in mega-cap technology, and the anticipated March-October correction represent significant risks. The forecast’s explicit bearish follow-through requires careful position sizing and risk management.

: The seasonal timeline compresses the opportunity window to approximately 5 weeks, with the February 15 initial peak and February 21 pullback representing near-term inflection points.

: The forecast is highly time-sensitive, with the March 18 target date establishing a defined horizon for the bullish thesis. Post-March correction expectations require proactive risk management frameworks.