Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Airbnb, Applied Materials, and Coinbase Scheduled to Report

February 12, 2026 (After Market Close)
February 11, 2026 at 7:39 PM PST

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This analysis examines three major companies across distinct market sectors scheduled to report quarterly results after market close on February 12, 2026. The pre-earnings positioning of these stocks reveals substantial divergence in market sentiment and performance trajectories. Applied Materials emerges as the clear outlier with exceptional momentum, while Coinbase faces significant headwinds amid a challenging crypto market environment.

Applied Materials has demonstrated remarkable strength, with shares trading near 52-week highs and showing gains of 87.89% over the past year. The company recently announced a $252.5 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to resolve allegations of illegal exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC), which analysts view as removing a key overhang on the stock [3][4][5]. Despite this legal matter, the Strong Buy consensus among analysts reflects confidence in the company’s AI-driven growth prospects.

Airbnb presents a more measured picture, with the stock trading at the lower end of its 52-week range after a 10.12% year-to-date decline. The company has demonstrated a consistent track record of exceeding revenue estimates over the past two years, which may provide a positive bias heading into the report [1][2]. Analysts maintain a Hold consensus with a consensus price target suggesting +24.6% upside potential.

Coinbase faces the most challenging setup, with the stock down 35.23% year-to-date and 49.61% over the past three months. Despite this weakness, analyst sentiment remains constructive with a Buy consensus and a consensus price target indicating +121.9% upside from current levels. The company’s recent launch of Agentic Wallets for AI agents represents an innovative expansion at the intersection of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology [10][11].

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Analysts expect Airbnb to report Q4 FY2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, with projected revenue of $2.71 billion, representing approximately 9.3-9.5% year-over-year growth [0][1][2]. The company has demonstrated a consistent track record of exceeding revenue expectations, having beaten Wall Street’s revenue estimates every single time over the past two years by an average margin of 1.6% [1]. This historical pattern of beating consensus estimates provides a favorable statistical backdrop for the upcoming report.

The consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.66, while analysts project revenue of $2.71 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year increase compared to the prior-year quarter [2]. The company’s ability to consistently deliver revenue beats suggests operational resilience and effective demand management in the travel services sector.

Airbnb’s stock is trading at $119.55, down 0.64% on the day and down significantly over recent periods [0]:

Period	Performance
1 Month	-13.69%
YTD	-10.12%
1 Year	-14.92%

The stock is trading at the lower end of its 52-week range ($99.88 - $163.93), indicating potential value at current levels but also reflecting investor concern about near-term growth prospects. The P/E ratio of 28.67x and P/B ratio of 8.63x suggest reasonable valuation relative to growth, with a PEG ratio of 0.58 indicating the stock trades at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth [2]. The Consumer Cyclical sector, which Airbnb belongs to, declined 0.19% on February 11, 2026, slightly underperforming the broader market [0].

Analyst coverage shows a

with the following breakdown [0]:

Rating	Count	Percentage
Buy	17	38.6%
Hold	23	52.3%
Sell	4	9.1%

The consensus price target is $149.00, representing +24.6% upside from current levels, with a target range of $107.00 - $170.00 [0]. Evercore ISI has maintained its In Line rating while noting expectations for Airbnb to provide initial EBITDA margin guidance for FY2026, likely indicating flat margins compared to the 35% expected for FY2025 [2].

• Nights and Experiences Bookings
  : The company reported 133.6 million nights booked in Q3, up 8.8% year-over-year; monitoring whether this acceleration continues into Q4 will be critical for assessing growth trajectory.
• International Growth
  : EMEA accounts for 48.1% of revenue, followed by North America at 39.5%, making international travel trends particularly relevant.
• Hotel Launch Impact
  : Recent analyst upgrades cite the hotels platform launch as a potential growth catalyst that could expand Airbnb’s addressable market.
• Guidance
  : Forward-looking statements on travel demand trends and competitive positioning will significantly influence post-earnings sentiment.

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Applied Materials is expected to report Q1 FY2026 EPS of $2.19 with projected revenue of $6.88 billion [0]. The company just announced a

with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to resolve allegations of illegal exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) [3][4][5]. This represents the second-highest civil fine ever imposed by BIS and equals twice the value of the illegal transactions [5].

: The settlement resolves allegations that certain customer shipments to China between November 2020 and July 2022 did not comply with U.S. Export Administration Regulations, based on the company’s misunderstanding of the applicability of those regulations. However, the U.S. Department of Justice and SEC have closed their related investigations without action [3]. This resolution removes what many analysts viewed as a significant overhang on the stock.

Applied Materials shares are showing exceptional strength, trading at $339.88 with robust momentum [0]:

Period	Performance
1 Day	+3.29%
1 Month	+10.62%
3 Months	+47.31%
6 Months	+80.36%
YTD	+26.41%
1 Year	+87.89%

The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $344.60, indicating strong investor confidence despite the legal settlement. The Technology sector overall declined 0.95% on February 11, 2026, making Applied Materials’ outperformance particularly notable [0]. The company has been a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout, with semiconductor equipment demand tied to artificial intelligence applications driving substantial order growth.

Applied Materials maintains a

with the following metrics [0]:

Rating	Count	Percentage
Strong Buy	1	1.9%
Buy	41	77.4%
Hold	11	20.8%

The consensus price target is $362.00, representing +6.5% upside from current levels, with a target range of $290.00 - $405.00 [0]. B. Riley recently raised its price target to $400 from $365, reiterating a Buy rating while expecting strong fiscal Q1 results modestly above consensus estimates [6]. The overwhelming Buy coverage reflects confidence in the company’s positioning within the AI-driven semiconductor equipment cycle.

Capital Group portfolio manager Christopher Buchbinder noted: “We could see that there was an opportunity as the memory manufacturers would need to ramp up their investments to support the AI build out. You’re beginning to see signs of that. It hasn’t fully played out. We think this is a multi-year cycle that we’ll see develop” [6]. The company’s operating profit margins and returns on free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases make it attractive for income-focused investors [6].

• AI Infrastructure Demand
  : Chip equipment orders tied to artificial intelligence buildout represent the primary growth driver and will be closely scrutinized in the earnings call.
• China Exposure
  : Revenue breakdown shows China represents 25% of semiconductor systems revenue; regulatory risk remains a consideration despite the settlement.
• Memory Chip Investment
  : Capital expenditure trends from major chipmakers indicate the strength and duration of the current equipment cycle.
• Settlement Impact
  : Whether the legal resolution removes uncertainty and allows the stock to continue its upward trajectory will be evident in post-earnings trading.

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Analysts expect Coinbase to report Q4 FY2025 EPS of $0.99, down from $3.39 a year earlier, with projected revenue of $1.84 billion, representing a decline from $2.27 billion in the prior-year quarter [7][8]. The significant year-over-year decline reflects challenging crypto market conditions, including lower trading volumes and reduced cryptocurrency prices compared to the prior-year period.

The company has demonstrated impressive earnings beat consistency, having beaten revenue estimates in seven of the last ten quarters and EPS estimates in nine of the last ten quarters, including the most recently reported Q3 [7][8]. This track record suggests the company may exceed the current modest expectations.

Coinbase shares are under significant pressure, trading at $153.20 [0]:

Period	Performance
1 Day	-5.73%
1 Month	-36.95%
3 Months	-49.61%
6 Months	-52.51%
YTD	-35.23%

The stock has declined 35.23% year-to-date, with analysts slashing targets ahead of earnings amid crypto volume decline and rising competition [9]. The Financial Services sector, which Coinbase belongs to, was the worst-performing sector on February 11, 2026, declining 2.26% [0]. The concentration of Coinbase within a weak sector amplifies the stock’s underperformance.

Despite the stock’s weakness, analyst sentiment remains constructive with a

[0]:

| Rating | Count | Percentage |
|--------|------------|
| Buy | 19 | 54.3% |
| Hold | 13 | 37.1% |
| Sell | 3 | 8.6% |

The consensus price target is $340.00, representing +121.9% upside from current levels—indicating significant optimism among analysts despite the recent decline [0]. Bank of America Securities upgraded Coinbase from Neutral to Buy in January with a price target of $340, citing increased products and growing total addressable market as potential cushions for the stock [7].

: Coinbase has unveiled Agentic Wallets, a new type of crypto wallet built specifically for artificial intelligence agents. These wallets allow AI systems to manage money and complete blockchain transactions without human approval [10][11]. The announcement builds on the x402 protocol developed for autonomous crypto payments and has already processed over 50 million transactions [10]. This positions Coinbase at the intersection of AI and blockchain technology, potentially opening new revenue streams and customer segments.

• Crypto Market Conditions
  : Bitcoin and Ethereum trading levels compared to prior quarters significantly impact trading revenue and user engagement metrics.
• Product Diversification
  : Performance of stock and ETF trading, prediction markets, and new AI wallet services will indicate the success of revenue diversification efforts.
• Institutional Adoption
  : Growth in institutional crypto activity represents a key revenue opportunity.
• Regulatory Environment
  : SEC and other regulatory developments affecting crypto exchanges could materially impact operations and market sentiment.

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The sector performance on February 11, 2026, shows defensive sectors outperforming while growth-oriented sectors face pressure [0]:

Sector	Change	Status
Basic Materials	+1.77%	📈 Strongest
Communication Services	+1.58%	📈
Healthcare	+0.92%	📈
Consumer Defensive	+0.91%	📈
Financial Services	-2.26%	📉 Weakest
Technology	-0.95%	📉
Industrials	-1.41%	📉
Consumer Cyclical	-0.19%	📉

The rotation into defensive sectors suggests a risk-off environment heading into these earnings reports, which could amplify the impact of both positive and negative surprises. The Financial Services sector’s position as the worst performer creates a challenging backdrop for Coinbase, while the Technology sector’s decline contrasts sharply with Applied Materials’ strong individual performance.

The mixed market performance—with the S&P 500 declining 0.50% and the NASDAQ falling 0.91%—suggests a cautious investor sentiment heading into these earnings reports [0]. This risk-off environment may create heightened volatility around the earnings releases, with investors likely to react strongly to any guidance updates or forward-looking statements.

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The divergent performance trajectories of these three companies reflect their distinct exposures to macroeconomic trends, sector dynamics, and company-specific developments.

stands out as the clear leader in terms of momentum and analyst sentiment. The company’s strong positioning within the AI-driven semiconductor equipment cycle, combined with the resolution of legal uncertainties through the BIS settlement, has created a favorable setup. The stock’s trading near 52-week highs and exceptional year-to-date gains reflect investor confidence in the multi-year nature of the AI infrastructure buildout cycle.

presents a more balanced risk-reward profile, with the stock trading at the lower end of its 52-week range and offering meaningful upside to consensus price targets. The company’s consistent revenue beat track record provides a statistical edge, while the Hold consensus suggests room for positive surprises in analyst estimates.

faces the most challenging near-term setup, with significant year-to-date declines and a weak sector backdrop. However, the substantial gap between current prices and consensus price targets suggests significant upside potential if the company can deliver on its diversification strategy and navigate the competitive crypto exchange landscape.

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• Consumer Discretionary Spending Pressures
  : Economic uncertainty could impact travel demand and booking volumes.
• Regulatory Challenges
  : Key international markets may impose new restrictions on short-term rental platforms.
• Competitive Pressure
  : Traditional hotel chains and competing platforms may erode Airbnb’s market share.

• Regulatory Risk
  : Despite the settlement, ongoing U.S.-China tensions could create future compliance challenges and potential restrictions on China-related revenue.
• China Revenue Concentration
  : 25% of semiconductor systems revenue comes from China, creating geographic concentration risk.
• Cycles
  : Semiconductor equipment demand is cyclical and dependent on foundry capacity expansion decisions by major chipmakers.

• Crypto Volatility
  : Revenue is highly correlated with cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes, creating unpredictable earnings.
• Regulatory Uncertainty
  : SEC and other regulatory actions could materially impact operations and market access.
• Competition
  : Increasing competition from other crypto exchanges and traditional financial institutions entering the space.
• Year-over-Year Comparisons
  : Significant revenue decline from prior year creates challenging comparisons that may continue to pressure results.

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Based on the multi-dimensional analysis, the following key informational points emerge:

reports Q4 FY2025 results with EPS estimates of $0.66 and revenue expectations of $2.71 billion. The stock has declined 10.12% year-to-date and trades near the lower end of its 52-week range. The company has a consistent track record of beating revenue estimates over the past two years. Analyst consensus remains Hold with a price target suggesting +24.6% upside potential.

reports Q1 FY2026 results with EPS estimates of $2.19 and revenue expectations of $6.88 billion. The stock has gained 26.41% year-to-date and trades near 52-week highs. The company recently resolved a $252.5 million export violation settlement with the U.S. Commerce Department, removing a key overhang. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with confidence in the AI-driven semiconductor equipment cycle.

reports Q4 FY2025 results with EPS estimates of $0.99 and revenue expectations of $1.83-1.84 billion. The stock has declined 35.23% year-to-date amid crypto market weakness. Analyst consensus remains Buy despite recent weakness, with a price target suggesting +121.9% upside potential. The company recently launched Agentic Wallets for AI agents, positioning at the AI-blockchain intersection.

: The S&P 500 declined 0.50% and the NASDAQ fell 0.91% on February 11, 2026, with defensive sectors outperforming growth sectors, indicating a risk-off environment that could amplify earnings reaction volatility.

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: Forward guidance, nights booked growth rates, and comments on the hotel integration progress and competitive positioning against traditional hospitality platforms.

: Order backlog trends, AI-related demand commentary, geographic revenue breakdown, and integration of the legal settlement into forward guidance.

: Trading volumes, subscription revenue growth metrics, AI wallet adoption indicators, and any updates on regulatory developments or institutional adoption initiatives.