Restaurant Brands International Q4 2024 Performance Analysis

Based on my analysis of Restaurant Brands International’s (QSR) recent earnings reports and industry data, here is a comprehensive assessment of the Q4 performance and its implications for consumer spending trends and the 2024 growth outlook:

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Restaurant Brands International reported

, demonstrating notable resilience in consumer spending within the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector despite broader economic pressures[0][1]:

Metric	Q4 2024 Result	Consensus Estimate	Beat/Miss
Same-Store Sales Growth	2.5%	~2.0% (implied)	Beat
Burger King US SSS	1.5%	0.8%	+0.7 pts
International SSS	4.7%	2.7%	+2.0 pts
Revenue	$2.30 billion	~$2.26B	+2.4%
Adjusted EPS	$0.81	$0.79	+2.5%

CEO Josh Kobza stated: “If you look compared to all of our big, traditional [QSR] peers, that 2.5% comp across the board was a pretty good outperformance for the quarter.”[1]

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The Q4 results reveal that consumers are

of the QSR category:

• Value consciousness
  : Despite inflation pressures, consumers continue to prioritize QSR for affordable meal options
• Outperformance vs. peers
  : QSR’s 2.5% same-store sales growth significantly outperformed Yum Brands’ KFC, which reported
  5% same-store sales declines
  in the U.S. market[1]
• Traffic over pricing
  : The beat was driven by transaction growth, not just menu price increases

The international segment emerged as the clear growth driver:

Market	Q4 2024 SSS	Beat vs. Estimate
International (Total)	4.7%	+2.0 percentage points
Tim Hortons Canada	2.5%	Steady performance
Burger King US	1.5%	+0.7 percentage points

International markets (particularly Latin America and EMEA) demonstrated

and continued adoption of QSR formats[0].

• Tim Hortons
  : Led revenue contribution (over 40% of total), with Canadian comparable sales of 4.3% for full year 2024
• Burger King US
  : Benefiting from the “Reclaim the Flame” initiative, showing improved momentum in H2 2024
• Popeyes
  : Solid performance, though KFC’s struggles suggest
  chicken segment pressure
  in the U.S.

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1. Continued Momentum
   : Q4 2025 results (reported February 12, 2026) show acceleration:
   • Consolidated comparable sales up
     3.1%
     (vs. 2.5% in Q4 2024)
   • System-wide sales growth of
     5.8%
   • Adjusted EPS of
     $0.96
     (+18.7% YoY)[0]

2. Organic Growth Execution
   : The company achieved its
   third consecutive year of roughly 8% organic Adjusted Operating Income growth
   , demonstrating sustainable operational improvement[0].

3. Capital Returns
   : QSR returned approximately
   $1.1 billion to shareholders
   in 2025 while investing for growth, indicating confidence in cash flow generation[0].

Peer Comparison	Revenue Growth	vs. Estimates
QSR	+5.6% (Q4 2024)	+2.4% beat
Yum China	+8.8% YoY	+3.9% beat
Yum Brands	+6.4% YoY	+2.7% beat

The QSR industry is showing

, with:

• Value positioning winning over premium casual dining
• International expansion offsetting domestic saturation
• Digital/loyalty programs driving frequency

1. Franchisee Profitability
   : Burger King U.S. franchisee profitability ($185K) remains below the $205K 2023 level, suggesting
   margin pressure on franchisees
   [0].

2. Popeyes Challenges
   : Popeyes U.S. comparable sales declined 4.9% in Q4 2025, indicating
   competitive pressures in the chicken segment
   [0].

3. Consumer Cyclical Sector
   : The broader Consumer Cyclical sector has underperformed recently (-0.19% today), reflecting
   macro uncertainty
   [0].

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Restaurant Brands International’s Q4 sales beat reflects a

toward value-conscious QSR spending rather than full-fledged restaurant dining. The 2.5% same-store sales growth—beating both internal expectations and peer performance—signals that:

1. QSR remains defensive
   : The category continues to capture wallet share from higher-priced dining options
2. International is the growth engine
   : Geographic diversification provides resilience against any single market weakness
3. 2024 outlook is cautiously optimistic
   : With ~8% organic AOI growth and expanding international presence, QSR is positioned for continued growth

The consensus analyst target of

(16% upside from current levels) reflects confidence in the company’s ability to sustain this momentum through 2024 and beyond[0].

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[0] Restaurant Brands International Inc. SEC 8-K Filing - Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000006/qsr-20260212.htm)

[1] CNBC - Restaurant Brands reports 2.5% same-store sales growth, fueled by Burger King and Popeyes (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/restaurant-brands-international-qsr-q4-2024-earnings.html)