Bloomberg Open Interest: Old Economy Stocks Surge as Market Rotation Accelerates

This analysis is based on the Bloomberg Open Interest program [1] published on February 12, 2026, hosted by Matt Miller and Dani Burger, which examined the continued outperformance of traditional “old economy” sectors relative to high-growth technology stocks. The segment highlighted a significant and sustained market rotation that has been building throughout early 2026, representing one of the more pronounced sector shifts in recent market history.

The timing of this analysis is particularly relevant given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly breached the psychologically significant 50,000 milestone during this period [2][4], underscoring the divergence between old economy and new economy performance that characterizes the current market environment.

The market exhibited a clear rotation pattern on February 12, 2026, with traditional sectors demonstrating resilience while growth-oriented indices experienced declines [0]:

Index	Daily Change	Year-to-Date Performance
Dow Jones Industrial	-1.39%	+2.84%
Russell 2000	-2.90%	+4.62%
S&P 500	-1.56%	-0.42%
NASDAQ Composite	-2.12%	-3.53%

The Russell 2000’s 4.62% year-to-date gain, despite its 2.90% daily decline, indicates that small-cap value stocks have been significant beneficiaries of the rotation. Conversely, the NASDAQ’s 3.53% year-to-date decline reflects continued pressure on high-valuation growth stocks, particularly those heavily invested in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies [0][3].

The intraday sector performance on February 12, 2026, reveals a stark contrast between defensive and growth-oriented sectors [0]:

• Consumer Defensive: +1.99%
• Real Estate: +1.35%
• Utilities: +0.34%
• Basic Materials: +0.21%

• Consumer Cyclical: -2.97%
• Financial Services: -2.90%
• Industrials: -2.38%
• Energy: -2.14%
• Technology: -1.71%

The Technology sector’s 1.71% decline on February 12 continues a pattern of consistent underperformance, with the NASDAQ’s year-to-date decline of 3.53% representing one of the poorest starts to a year for growth-oriented indices in recent memory [0][3]. The Consumer Cyclical sector’s 2.97% decline is particularly notable given its historical correlation with economic expansion and consumer confidence.

Selected “old economy” stocks have demonstrated exceptional performance relative to broader market indices [0]:

Stock	Ticker	20-Day Performance	Sector
Caterpillar	CAT	+17.43%	Industrials
NextEra Energy	NEE	+12.61%	Utilities
Procter & Gamble	PG	+11.53%	Consumer Staples

Weekly performers have been equally impressive, with DaVita (DVA) delivering a remarkable +29% return, Tapestry (TPR) achieving +25%, and Hershey (HSY) generating +19% gains [0][3]. These substantial returns represent significant alpha generation and highlight the breadth of the current rotation beyond large-cap industrials.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average’s approximately 14.6% year-to-date gain [2][4] represents one of the strongest sector performances across all major indices, confirming the transportation and logistics sector’s role as a key beneficiary of the old economy rotation. This historical indicator of economic activity has historically led major market moves and its current strength suggests sustained momentum for traditional industrial sectors.

Value-oriented companies have consistently exceeded earnings expectations, with smaller “old economy” firms delivering their most significant weekly gains in years [3]. This earnings strength has provided fundamental justification for the rotation and attracted institutional capital seeking relatively stable returns in an uncertain economic environment.

Growing investor skepticism toward high-valuation technology names, particularly those with significant artificial intelligence investments, has triggered substantial capital reallocation toward tangible assets and established industrial firms [2][3]. The market is increasingly questioning whether AI-intensive valuations can be sustained given the uncertainty surrounding implementation timelines and return on investment.

Elevated jobless claims and softening payroll data have prompted significant defensive positioning among portfolio managers [3]. This macroeconomic concern has favored stable consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare companies that historically demonstrate resilience during economic slowdowns.

Multiple macroeconomic forces are supporting the old economy rotation [2]:

• Rising U.S. bond yields affecting discount rates applied to growth stocks
• Declining dollar supporting export-oriented industrial companies
• China reducing Treasury holdings creating yield pressure
• Strong commodity prices for materials and industrials

The rotation reflects a fundamental and potentially sustained shift in market leadership [3][4]:

Communications companies (META, GOOGL) declined approximately 3.6%, Consumer Discretionary names (AMZN, TSLA) fell around 2.6%, and Technology sector leaders (MSFT, NVDA) declined approximately 1.9% on February 12 alone [3]. This systematic underperformance across growth sectors indicates broad-based skepticism toward high-valuation growth investments.

Consumer Staples, Industrials, Materials, and Financials have delivered consistent gains, with Materials and Energy reaching new all-time highs [3]. The S&P 500’s advance/decline line hitting a new all-time high indicates broad participation in the current rally despite the index’s relative flatness, suggesting that the market breadth has improved even as headline indices have struggled.

The Bloomberg Open Interest segment accurately captures a significant and sustained market rotation toward old economy stocks that has characterized early 2026 [1][2]. The data confirms meaningful outperformance from industrials, utilities, consumer staples, and materials, driven by a confluence of factors including earnings outperformance, AI skepticism, and defensive positioning amid economic uncertainty [2][3][4].

This rotation represents a potential medium-term shift in market leadership, though investors should remain alert to catalysts that could reverse the trend, particularly from the technology sector or confirming economic data that might alter the current defensive positioning rationale [3].

• Momentum Reversal Potential:
  Technology stocks have demonstrated resilience in past rotations and could rebound quickly on positive news regarding AI implementation or product announcements [3]
• Volatility Exposure:
  The narrow nature of the current rally may increase short-term volatility, particularly if market breadth deteriorates [0]
• Sector Concentration Risk:
  Heavy reliance on defensive sectors may prove costly if economic growth accelerates beyond current expectations [3]

• Duration Uncertainty:
  Historical rotations have varied in length from weeks to months, making timing predictions inherently uncertain [4]
• Valuation Compression:
  Old economy stocks may face headwinds if valuations become stretched relative to historical norms [3]
• Policy Dependency:
  The rotation is partially dependent on ongoing economic uncertainty and Federal Reserve policy trajectory [2]

• 6,800 Support Level:
  Critical technical support level for the S&P 500 [3]
• 100-Day Moving Average:
  Key trend indicator for broader market direction [3]
• DJTA Performance:
  Continued leadership from transports would validate the old economy thesis [2]
• Labor Market Data:
  Further signs of economic slowing would reinforce defensive positioning [3]