US Pre-Market Briefing - February 13, 2026

February 13, 2026
Pre-Market Session (awaiting CPI data release at 8:30 AM ET)
Trading Desk Review

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US stock futures slipped lower on February 13, 2026, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key US inflation data. The S&P 500 futures declined 0.24-0.33%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.44%, indicating a slightly negative open is anticipated [0]. The pre-market session exhibited significant volatility driven by a wave of earnings releases and analyst rating changes, creating a bifurcated market where technology stocks surged on positive catalysts while ad-tech and betting sectors experienced sharp declines.

Yesterday’s regular session ended with broad-based weakness: the S&P 500 fell 108.71 points (1.6%), the Nasdaq declined 2.36%, and the Dow Jones dropped 669.42 points (1.3%) [1]. The VIX volatility index rose 3.12%, signaling elevated market uncertainty heading into the CPI data release [2].

The market focus is squarely on the January CPI inflation data, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus expectations of 2.9% year-over-year for headline CPI and 3.3% for core CPI [3]. This inflation print will likely influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and provide direction for markets in the near term.

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Index	Close	Daily Change
S&P 500 (^GSPC)	6,832.77	-1.79%
NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)	22,597.15	-2.36%
Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI)	49,451.99	-1.71%
Russell 2000 (^RUT)	2,615.83	-2.58%

The broad-based decline on February 12 reflected investor caution ahead of inflation data, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq experiencing the steepest drop [0].

Futures Contract	Current Level	Change	Direction
S&P 500 March E-Mini (ESH26)	6,829.75	-0.31%	Bearish
Nasdaq 100 (NQH26)	24,659.75	-0.44%	Bearish
Dow Jones (YMH26)	49,394.00	-0.26%	Bearish
VIX Futures	21.48	+3.12%	Elevated Volatility

The negative futures orientation suggests markets are bracing for potential weakness at the open. The VIX’s rise to 21.48 indicates increased options activity and hedging behavior is anticipated [2]. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.118%, up 0.34%, reflecting subtle movements in bond markets alongside equity weakness [4].

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Rivian surged dramatically in pre-market trading following the announcement of 2026 delivery guidance projecting 62,000-67,000 vehicles [5]. This guidance reset the EV narrative for the company, which has faced significant challenges in scaling production. The stock jumped approximately 14% in after-hours trading on February 12 before extending gains in pre-market. Pre-market volume reached 27.75 million shares, well above the 37.34 million average, indicating strong investor interest [0].

Applied Materials jumped over 11% on AI-driven chip demand and exceptionally strong Q2 2026 guidance. The company guided revenue of $7.65 billion versus consensus estimates of $7.01 billion [6]. This substantial beat reflects continued robust demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly for AI-related chip production. Pre-market volume of 9.08 million shares exceeded the 7.68 million average, confirming heightened interest in the semiconductor equipment space [0].

Arista Networks experienced a significant 12% surge in after-hours trading on February 12 following Q4 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations. The company reported EPS of $0.82 versus $0.76 expected, and revenue of $2.49 billion versus $2.38 billion expected [7]. The strong performance reflects continued datacenter networking demand, particularly as AI infrastructure builds out require increased networking capacity.

Coinbase gained ground despite reporting Q4 revenue that missed estimates. The bullish driver came from record stablecoin revenue, suggesting growing adoption of cryptocurrency stablecoins for trading and payments [8]. This demonstrates that despite regulatory headwinds, Coinbase’s ecosystem continues to generate substantial fee revenue from its stablecoin operations.

Pinterest experienced the most significant decline, falling nearly 20% after multiple analyst downgrades. Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to In Line from Outperform, citing slowing user growth and tariff-related earnings concerns that could impact the company’s advertising revenue trajectory [9]. Elevated pre-market volume of 25.06 million shares, nearly double the 15.04 million average, confirms intense selling pressure and analyst attention [0].

Despite beating Q4 earnings expectations with EPS of $3.78 versus $3.32 expected, Expedia declined in pre-market trading [10]. This counterintuitive reaction suggests investors may be focused on forward guidance or concerns about travel sector demand trends. Volume of 6.07 million shares was nearly triple the 2.16 million average, indicating unusual activity.

DexCom slipped following its earnings release, with shares trading lower despite the company being a major player in continuous glucose monitoring systems [0]. The 7.51 million shares traded exceeded the 5.34 million average, reflecting elevated attention around the medical device company’s results.

The online sports betting operator experienced substantial weakness, falling approximately 17% in pre-market trading on a weak sector outlook [4]. This decline reflects broader concerns about the sports betting industry’s profitability and growth trajectory.

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Symbol	Company	Time	Consensus EPS	Pre-Market Reaction
CCJ	Cameco Corporation	Pre-market	Expected strong Q4	-2.34%
MGA	Magna International	Pre-market	Expected Q4	+0.07%
MRNA	Moderna, Inc.	Pre-market	Expected Q4	-0.99%
MCD	McDonald’s	Reported	$3.12 (Beat)	+2.74%

McDonald’s reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.12, beating analyst estimates of $3.05 [11]. The stock rose 2.74% to $332.08, marking a new 52-week high within its range of $283.47-$333.38. The strong quarterly performance reflects continued consumer demand for fast food and successful operational initiatives. Volume of 5.62 million shares exceeded the 3.31 million average, confirming elevated trading interest [0].

The datacenter networking leader delivered Q4 2025 EPS of $0.82 versus $0.76 expected, with revenue of $2.49 billion exceeding $2.38 billion consensus [7]. The stock jumped 12% in after-hours trading, reflecting market appreciation for continued strong demand in AI-related networking infrastructure.

While not reporting during pre-market hours, Applied Materials’ guidance update drove significant pre-market movement. The company expects Q2 2026 revenue of $7.65 billion, substantially above the $7.01 billion consensus [6]. This outlook reinforces the semiconductor equipment sector’s robust position in the AI-driven demand cycle.

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Indicator	Time (ET)	Consensus Forecast	Prior Reading	Market Impact
CPI (Consumer Price Index)	8:30 AM	+0.3% MoM / +2.9% YoY	+0.4% MoM / +2.9% YoY	Critical
Core CPI	8:30 AM	+0.3% MoM / +3.3% YoY	+0.2% MoM / +3.3% YoY	Critical
Weekly Jobless Claims	8:30 AM	215K	207K	Medium
PPI (Producer Price Index)	8:30 AM	+0.3% MoM	-0.1% MoM	Medium

The CPI inflation data represents the most significant market catalyst of the day. Investors will closely analyze the year-over-year and month-over-month changes to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy path [3]. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is particularly important given sticky inflation concerns in services categories.

Market expectations suggest headline CPI will remain at 2.9% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% [4]. Any deviation from these expectations could trigger significant market volatility.

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Indicator	Current Value	Change	Interpretation
VIX (Volatility Index)	21.48	+3.12%	Elevated volatility expected
US Dollar Index (DXY)	96.955	+0.12%	Slightly stronger
Gold Futures	$4,987.51	+0.79%	Safe haven demand
Silver Futures	$77.308	+2.15%	Industrial metal demand

Sector	Daily Change	Status
Consumer Defensive	+2.03%	Outperformer
Utilities	+0.40%	Defensive Bid
Basic Materials	+0.05%	Flat
Real Estate	-0.00%	Flat
Healthcare	-1.33%	Underperformer
Energy	-1.52%	Weak
Communication Services	-2.16%	Weak
Industrials	-2.26%	Weak
Technology	-2.54%	Significant Weakness
Financial Services	-2.82%	Major Weakness
Consumer Cyclical	-2.88%	Worst Performer

The rotation into defensive sectors (Consumer Defensive and Utilities) reflects a risk-off sentiment among investors ahead of the CPI data release [0]. Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors experienced the steepest declines, suggesting growth-oriented positioning is being reduced.

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Symbol	Company	Action	Key Concerns
PINS	Pinterest	Multiple Downgrades	Tariff-related earnings concerns, slowing growth
CPA	Copa Holdings	Downgrade	Operational challenges
MAT	Mattel	Downgrade	Demand outlook weakness
GNRC	Generac	Downgrade	Competitive pressures
KHC	Kraft Heinz	Downgrade	Margin compression concerns
HUM	Humana	Downgrade	Healthcare policy risks
ROL	Rollins	Downgrade	Valuation concerns

The predominance of analyst downgrades reflects a cautious stance among Wall Street analysts heading into the inflation data release [12]. The Pinterest downgrade was particularly significant, with multiple firms reducing ratings due to tariff impacts and growth trajectory concerns.

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1. Await CPI Release:
   The January CPI data at 8:30 AM ET represents the primary directional catalyst. Markets are likely to remain Range-bound until the inflation print is released.

2. Monitor Semiconductor Exposure:
   Applied Materials and Arista Networks demonstrate that AI-driven semiconductor demand remains robust. Consider maintaining or adding to semiconductor equipment exposure.

3. Defensive Positioning:
   The rotation into Consumer Defensive and Utilities sectors suggests hedging through consumer staples and utility exposure could provide downside protection.

4. Volatility Considerations:
   The elevated VIX suggests elevated options activity. Consider volatility strategies or protective options positions.

• CPI inflation data release (8:30 AM ET)
• Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET)
• Federal Reserve official commentary following data
• Q4 earnings from major retailers next week

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[0] Ginlix Quantitative Database - Pre-Market Briefing Data

[1] How major US stock indexes fared Thursday, 2/12/2026

[2] Stock Market Today: Stocks Slip Ahead of January CPI Report

[3] S&P Futures Slip With Focus on Key U.S. Inflation Data

[4] Premarket | Futures | Pre-market Trading

[5] Rivian Pops as 2026 Delivery Outlook Resets the Growth Narrative

[6] Applied Materials jumps as AI demand drives chipmaking tool orders

[7] Arista Networks shares jump after Q4 beat, upbeat outlook

[8] PreMarket Movers – February 13, 2026

[9] Pinterest stock downgraded by Evercore ISI to In Line on slowing growth

[10] Expedia Group (NASDAQ:EXPE) Announces Earnings Results

[11] McDonald’s Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Rise Y/Y

[12] Analyst Stock Ratings Downgrades

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This pre-market briefing is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Data is sourced from Ginlix Quantitative Database and external market sources as cited.