Mid-Session US Market Analysis - February 13, 2026

February 13, 2026
Mid-Session Update (12:00 PM ET)
Comprehensive Intraday Market Analysis

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The US stock market on February 13, 2026, is experiencing a significant mid-session recovery following the sharp selloff that characterized the morning trading session and the previous day’s market action. All three major indices have transitioned from negative territory to post modest gains, with the S&P 500 leading the recovery at +0.61%. The market continues to exhibit elevated volatility, with the VIX remaining at 20.82, reflecting persistent investor concerns about AI-related disruptions to the technology sector and broader economic uncertainties. Despite the intraday recovery, underlying market structure remains fragile, as evidenced by weak breadth indicators showing decliners outpacing advancers by more than 2-to-1 on both exchanges. The CPI data released earlier today showed inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest level since May 2025, providing a potentially supportive backdrop for Federal Reserve policy accommodation. However, markets have focused more on sector rotation dynamics and AI-related concerns than the positive inflation developments.

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Index	Current Price	Day Change	% Change	Day Range	Previous Close
S&P 500 (^GSPC)	$6,874.22	+41.46	+0.61%	6,794.55 - 6,874.51	$6,832.76
Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)	$22,689.11	+91.96	+0.41%	22,402.38 - 22,698.29	$22,597.15
Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI)	$49,701.45	+249.46	+0.50%	49,084.35 - 49,705.20	$49,451.99

Date	S&P 500 Close	Change	Nasdaq Close	Change	Dow Close	Change
2026-02-13 (Intraday)	6,874.22	+0.61%	22,689.11	+0.41%	49,701.45	+0.50%
2026-02-12	6,832.76	-1.79%	22,597.15	-2.36%	49,451.99	-1.71%
2026-02-11	6,941.46	-0.50%	23,066.47	-0.91%	50,121.41	-0.24%
2026-02-10	6,941.82	-0.47%	23,102.47	-0.73%	50,188.15	-0.01%
2026-02-09	6,964.81	+0.69%	23,238.67	+1.25%	50,135.88	+0.29%

The market opened the session following the significant correction experienced on February 12, when the S&P 500 fell 1.79%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.36%, and the Dow Jones declined 1.71% [0]. The February 12 selloff represented the most significant market correction since the 2018-2019 AI panic, driven by escalating concerns about artificial intelligence’s potential impact on software jobs and the broader technology sector [1]. The current session demonstrates a notable recovery, with all indices successfully transitioning from negative to positive territory. The S&P 500 is leading the recovery with a 0.61% gain, followed by the Dow Jones at +0.50% and the Nasdaq at +0.41%. This pattern suggests a broad-based recovery across market capitalizations, though the Nasdaq’s relatively weaker performance reflects ongoing caution toward technology-related equities.

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Sector	Change	Status
Utilities	+3.56%	Leader
Healthcare	+2.25%	Strong
Energy	+1.68%	Strong
Consumer Defensive	+1.64%	Strong
Basic Materials	+1.51%	Strong
Industrials	+0.87%	Positive
Financial Services	+0.39%	Positive
Communication Services	+0.35%	Positive
Technology	-0.05%	Laggard
Consumer Cyclical	-0.07%	Laggard
Real Estate	-0.09%	Worst

The rotation dynamics observed on February 13 represent a continuation and intensification of the risk-off sentiment that characterized the previous trading session. When examining the sector performance in detail, several patterns emerge that warrant closer analysis.

The utilities sector’s remarkable +3.56% gain represents the strongest intraday performance among all S&P 500 sectors. This defensive rotation is a classic indicator of investor uncertainty, as market participants gravitate toward sectors historically known for stability and dividend yield during periods of market stress. The utilities sector’s performance is particularly notable given that 8 of 11 S&P sectors ended negative on February 12, making the sector’s resilience even more pronounced [1].

Healthcare’s +2.25% gain reflects similar defensive positioning, though the sector also benefits from fundamental tailwinds including aging demographics and steady demand for medical services regardless of economic conditions. The sector’s ability to post strong gains despite broader market weakness suggests institutional investors are actively rebalancing toward more stable exposure.

The technology sector’s -0.05% performance, while appearing modest, represents continued significant stress in the sector following the February 12 selloff when the XLK technology ETF dropped 2.6% [1]. The sector’s underperformance reflects multiple headwinds, including concerns about AI’s potential impact on software jobs, elevated valuations following years of strong performance, and earnings uncertainty in the current environment.

The morning session witnessed a notable shift in sector leadership. Early trading saw defensive sectors maintain their dominance, but as the session progressed, there were signs of broadening participation. Financial services (+0.39%) and communication services (+0.35%) have transitioned from laggards to positive territory, suggesting some risk appetite returning to the market. However, technology (-0.05%) and consumer cyclical (-0.07%) sectors remain under pressure, indicating that the rotation toward defensive assets remains the dominant market theme.

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Indicator	Value	Interpretation
NYSE Adv/Decl Ratio	2.17:1 (decliners)	Bearish - significantly more decliners
Nasdaq Adv/Decl Ratio	2.74:1 (decliners)	Very Bearish - extreme breadth weakness
NYSE New Highs/Lows	748 / 229	Positive bias in new highs
S&P 500 52-Week Highs/Lows	99 / 32	Generally positive momentum
Trading Volume (Feb 12)	22.45 billion shares	Above 20-session average (20.78B)
VIX Volatility Index	20.82 (+17.96%)	Elevated - highest since 2018-2019 AI panic

The market breadth data presents a mixed picture. Despite the intraday recovery, decliners continue to significantly outpace advancers on both exchanges, with the Nasdaq showing particularly weak breadth at 2.74-to-1 [0]. This divergence between index-level gains and underlying breadth is a notable concern, suggesting that the recovery may be concentrated in a limited number of stocks rather than representing broad-based participation. The VIX spike to 20.82 marks the highest level of market fear since the 2018-2019 AI panic period, indicating that options market participants anticipate continued volatility [1].

Trading volume on February 12 reached 22.45 billion shares across NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges, exceeding the 20-session average of 20.78 billion shares [0]. This elevated volume during the selloff confirms significant market participation in the downward move. The current session is showing normalized volume patterns as the market recovers, with the S&P 500 having traded approximately 26.8% of its average daily volume by mid-session.

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Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Prior	Status
CPI (Headline) YoY	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	Better than expected
CPI (Core) YoY	2.5%	N/A	2.6%	Better than expected

The Consumer Price Index data released this morning showed headline inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest level since May 2025 [1]. This exceeds market expectations of 2.5% and represents a significant development in the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle against inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 2.5% year-over-year, also showing improvement from the prior reading of 2.6%. The better-than-expected inflation data has sparked a bond rally, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to approximately 4.06-4.09%, down 12 basis points from previous levels [0].

Indicator	Actual	Prior	Status
Jobless Claims (Feb 7)	227,000	232,000	Improved

Weekly jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, 2026, indicating relatively stable labor market conditions [0]. This data provides additional context for the Federal Reserve’s policy deliberations, suggesting that the labor market remains resilient despite broader economic uncertainties.

The bond market rally following the CPI data release has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market participants are now pricing in approximately 63 basis points of Fed easing for 2026, with a 50% probability of at least one rate cut by December 2026 [1]. This represents an important shift in market expectations and could provide ongoing support for rate-sensitive sectors and the broader equity market.

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Metric	Value
Intraday Open	$681.71
Intraday High	$685.64
Intraday Low	$677.66
Current Price	$685.19
Intraday Change	+0.51%
20-Day High	$697.84
20-Day Low	$675.79

Level Type	Price	Description
Intraday Resistance	$685.64	Session high
20-Day High	$697.84	Key resistance level
Pivot Point	$682.85	Mid-point balance
R1 (Pivot)	$688.17	First resistance
S1 (Pivot)	$680.02	First support
20-Day Low	$675.79	Strong support zone
Critical Support	$670.00	Major psychological level

Metric	Value
Intraday Open	$600.23
Intraday High	$604.92
Intraday Low	$596.50
Current Price	$604.42
Intraday Change	+0.70%
20-Day High	$636.60
20-Day Low	$594.76

Level Type	Price	Description
Intraday Resistance	$604.92	Session high
20-Day High	$636.60	Key resistance
Pivot Point	$602.05	Mid-point balance
R1 (Pivot)	$607.68	First resistance
S1 (Pivot)	$599.11	First support
20-Day Low	$594.76	Strong support
Critical Support	$590.00	Major psychological level

Indicator	SPY	QQQ	Interpretation
Intraday RSI (5-min)	69.82	65.91	SPY approaching overbought; QQQ in healthy range
Daily RSI (14)	43.91	38.60	Neutral to bearish; QQQ approaching oversold
MACD (Daily)	-1.17	-4.20	Bearish momentum below zero
Price vs SMA 20	Below	Below	Short-term downtrend intact

The technical analysis reveals a market in recovery mode with positive intraday momentum, though the daily downtrend remains intact [0]. Both SPY and QQQ are trading below their respective 20-day moving averages, confirming the short-term bearish trend. However, the intraday recovery has pushed prices above key pivot points, with MACD showing bullish crossover on the 5-minute timeframe.

The MACD indicator presents an interesting divergence between timeframes. On the daily chart, both SPY (MACD -1.17) and QQQ (MACD -4.20) show bearish momentum with the MACD line below zero and the signal line [0]. However, on the 5-minute intraday chart, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, indicating short-term recovery momentum. This timeframe divergence is significant: it suggests that while the broader trend remains bearish, there is sufficient short-term buying interest to drive a recovery within the session.

The RSI analysis reveals important insights about current market conditions. The intraday RSI for SPY at 69.82 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting limited short-term upside before potential pullback [0]. Conversely, QQQ’s daily RSI at 38.60 is approaching oversold conditions, potentially setting up for a mean-reversion bounce if buying interest returns. This divergence between indices and timeframes creates a complex technical picture that traders must navigate carefully.

The current price action is being constrained by well-defined technical levels. For SPY, the $680 support level (S1 pivot) held during the morning session, enabling the recovery rally. For QQQ, the $600 psychological level and the $599.11 S1 pivot are providing similar support. The overhead resistance at $688 for SPY and $608 for QQQ represents key levels that could cap further upside if selling pressure resumes [0].

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Company	Change	Sector	Notable Context
Cisco Systems	-12.3%	Technology	Biggest one-day selloff
AppLovin	-19.7%	Technology	AI-related concerns
Dell Technologies	-9.1%	Technology	Post-earnings decline
CBRE Group	-8.8%	Real Estate	Commercial real estate concerns
C.H. Robinson	-14.5%	Industrials	Logistics sector weakness

Company	Change	Sector	Notable Context
Equinix	+10.4%	Real Estate/Data Centers	AI infrastructure demand

The February 13 trading session has exhibited several notable unusual activity patterns that merit attention from market participants.

Trading volume on February 12 reached 22.45 billion shares across NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges, exceeding the 20-session average of 20.78 billion shares [1]. This elevated volume during the selloff confirms significant market participation in the downward move, with volume concentrated during the initial decline rather than the recovery phase.

The market breadth data showing 2.74-to-1 decliners on Nasdaq indicates that the index-level gains during the recovery phase are being driven by a relatively narrow set of stocks [0]. This concentration pattern is unusual and suggests the recovery may be more fragile than the index performance implies.

The VIX spike to 20.82 represents the highest volatility level since the 2018-2019 AI panic period [1]. This volatility clustering, where large price movements tend to cluster together, suggests the market may experience continued elevated volatility in the near term.

The utilities sector’s +3.56% gain on strong volume indicates genuine institutional accumulation rather than merely retail flight-to-safety. This unusual volume pattern in defensive sectors suggests sophisticated investors are making strategic allocations rather than panic-driven decisions.

Bitcoin fell to approximately $66,800, indicating risk-off sentiment spilling over into cryptocurrency markets [1]. Gold also dipped below $5,000 per ounce, a rare safe-haven pullback during broad risk-off conditions, underscoring the intensity of the current market correction.

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With the morning economic data releases completed, the afternoon session lacks major scheduled catalysts. The CPI data has been absorbed by the market, and no Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled for February 13 [0]. Trading will likely be driven by technical factors and any breaking news related to the AI sector or broader economic developments.

Scenario	Probability	Catalysts
Continued Recovery	55%	Support holds, buying returns
Resistance Rejection	30%	Selling at overhead levels
Breakdown	15%	Failed support, renewed selling

The technical outlook suggests a 55% probability of continued recovery, supported by intraday momentum and the oversold conditions in QQQ [0]. However, resistance at $688 for SPY and $608 for QQQ could trigger selling pressure. Given elevated VIX levels, traders should remain alert to potential volatility spikes in the afternoon session.

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The AAII sentiment survey for the week ending February 11, 2026, showed 38.5% bulls versus 38.1% bears, indicating near-neutral sentiment [1]. However, the current market action suggests sentiment has shifted more negative following the February 12 selloff and morning session weakness. The discrepancy between the survey results (which reflect positions taken before the selloff) and current market conditions highlights the rapid nature of sentiment shifts during periods of elevated volatility.

The rotation toward defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) combined with elevated VIX levels indicates that investors are adopting a more cautious stance. Several positioning dynamics warrant attention:

The significant outflows from technology-focused funds and corresponding inflows into defensive sector ETFs suggest institutional investors are actively repositioning portfolios. The utilities sector’s +3.56% gain on above-average volume indicates strong institutional buying, not merely retail flight-to-safety.

The VIX spike to 20.82, representing a 17.96% increase, indicates options market participants are pricing in elevated volatility expectations [1]. The term structure of VIX futures suggests markets expect volatility to remain elevated in the near term, consistent with the post-correction environment.

The bond market’s strong rally, with the 10-year yield falling toward 4%, suggests increased expectations for Fed accommodation and a flight-to-quality dynamic. The correlation between equity market weakness and bond strength reflects classic risk-off positioning, with investors reducing equity exposure and increasing fixed income allocations.

The weakness in Bitcoin (down to $66,800) and gold (dipping below $5,000/oz) during the equity selloff is notable [1]. Typically, these assets serve as safe havens during periods of market stress. The simultaneous decline in equities, gold, and Bitcoin suggests a broad-based deleveraging rather than rotation into alternative safe havens, indicating the market correction is driven by liquidity concerns and risk reduction rather than fundamental factors.

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The SPY intraday chart demonstrates recovery from session lows at $677.66 to current levels around $685. The price is trading above intraday moving averages (EMA 9, MA 20), with RSI approaching overbought territory at 69.82, suggesting potential for short-term pullback.

QQQ shows stronger relative performance with +0.70% gain compared to SPY’s +0.51%. The RSI at 65.91 remains in a healthier range with more room for upside before reaching overbought conditions.

The daily chart confirms the downtrend remains intact, with price trading below the 20-day moving average. Support at $675.79 is holding so far, and the daily RSI at 43.91 remains in neutral territory.

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February 13, 2026, represents a day of recovery following the significant market correction experienced on February 12. The CPI data showing inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year provided a supportive fundamental backdrop, sparking a bond rally and increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, the market’s focus remains on AI-related sector concerns and the broader economic outlook, leading to continued rotation toward defensive sectors.

• All three major indices are trading positive intraday, with the S&P 500 leading gains at +0.61%
• Defensive sectors (utilities +3.56%, healthcare +2.25%) continue to outperform, while technology lags
• Market breadth remains weak with decliners outpacing advancers 2.17-to-1 on NYSE and 2.74-to-1 on Nasdaq
• VIX elevated at 20.82, the highest since the 2018-2019 AI panic
• CPI data exceeded expectations (2.4% vs 2.5%), supporting Fed rate cut expectations
• Technical analysis shows intraday recovery momentum but daily downtrend intact

The market is showing resilience in the face of significant selling pressure, with intraday recovery gaining momentum. However, the weak breadth indicators and elevated VIX suggest caution remains warranted. Key resistance levels to watch include $688 for SPY and $608 for QQQ. Should these levels hold as resistance, the market could see renewed selling pressure. Conversely, a break above these levels could signal a more sustainable recovery.

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[0] Ginlix Quantitative Database - Market data and technical analysis

[1] Market Quick Take - 13 February 2026 - Saxo Bank

[2] Schwab Market Update - Charles Schwab

[3] Stock Market News for Feb 13, 2026 - Nasdaq

[4] Friday the 13th brings global selloff in stocks and gold as AI fear grips markets - Fortune

[5] Traders See 50% Odds of Third Fed Cut in 2026 as Inflation Ebbs - Yahoo Finance

[6] Bond Market Rallies as Cooling Inflation Data Sends 10-Year Yield Toward 4%

[7] Nasdaq down 2% as AI Worry Creates Market Selloff - FX Leaders

[8] United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Trading Economics

[9] Calendar: February 2026 - Federal Reserve Board