Phosphate Ore Prices Maintain Tight Balance at High Levels; Industry Leaders See Enhanced Profit Certainty

The phosphate ore market exhibits typical dual characteristics of supply constraints and demand expansion. On the supply side, environmental policies continue to tighten; the “Three Phosphorus” special rectification in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has accelerated the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the industry concentration CR5 has exceeded 42% [2]. Phosphate ore mining is a capital-intensive industry with a long cycle for new capacity deployment, making it difficult to quickly increase supply in the short term. As of November 11, 2025, the average market price of domestic 30% grade phosphate ore was 1017 yuan/ton, and that of 28% grade was 945 yuan/ton [1], and prices have been in the high range of over 900 yuan/ton for more than 2 years.

In terms of traditional agricultural demand, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of phosphate fertilizers provides rigid demand support. The export quota of phosphate fertilizers has decreased from 8 million tons in 2022 to 3.5 million tons in 2025, and the annual gap of 1 million tons in the international market is pushing up phosphate fertilizer prices [2]. The explosive growth of new energy demand has become a key variable, and lithium iron phosphate has become the core engine for the growth of high-grade phosphate ore demand. Data shows that China’s energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 165GWh in the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65%; the cumulative loading volume of power batteries in the first three quarters was 493.9GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81.5% at 402.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 62.7% [3].

Under environmental pressure, some small and medium-sized phosphate mines have gradually withdrawn from the market due to failure to meet standards, further tightening the supply side [1]. The industry is accelerating its transformation towards resource efficiency and industrial chain integration, and leading enterprises have prominent advantages. Companies with rich phosphate ore resources and mining capabilities, such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, occupy favorable positions in industry integration.

The lithium iron phosphate industry has a strong momentum of technological innovation, focusing on the comprehensive improvement of energy density, fast charging capacity and compaction density. Products with high-end characteristics such as high compaction, fourth generation or energy storage special use are particularly in short supply, showing a “supply shortage” situation [3]. This technological upgrade trend further strengthens the demand for high-grade phosphate ore.

The price increase of raw materials such as sulfur has pushed up the production cost of phosphate fertilizers, indirectly supporting the price of phosphate ore [1]. As of June 30, 2025, the reference price of sulfur was 2263 yuan/ton, an increase of 135.73% compared with the same period last year [4], providing strong cost support for phosphate ore prices.

:

• Continuous high growth in demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage; the annual energy storage battery shipments are expected to reach 580GWh in 2025, with a growth rate of over 75% [3]
• The scarcity of phosphate ore resources is increasingly prominent, high-grade ores are increasingly scarce, and mining difficulty and cost are constantly rising
• Industry concentration increases, leading enterprises have stronger pricing power
• Technology upgrades promote product structure optimization, and high-end products are in short supply

:
Users should note that the following risk factors may have a significant impact on the phosphate ore industry:

• Policy Implementation Risk
  : If the implementation of environmental policies is not as expected, it may lead to slower withdrawal of backward production capacity and weakened supply-side constraints [4]
• Demand Fluctuation Risk
  : Adjustments to new energy vehicle subsidy policies, slower growth in energy storage installation, and other factors may affect the growth of lithium iron phosphate demand
• Technological Substitution Risk
  : The commercialization process of new battery technologies such as sodium-ion batteries may have a substitution effect on lithium iron phosphate demand
• Price Fluctuation Risk
  : Phosphate ore prices have been running at high levels for a long time; if the supply-demand relationship changes, prices may correct

:
Yuntianhua (600096.SS) rose 27.58% in the past 27 trading days, from 27.12 yuan to 34.60 yuan, with a current market value of 63.08 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 11.23 [0]. In the third quarter of 2025, it achieved a net profit attributable to parent of 1.968 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.30% and a month-on-month increase of 33.69% [2].

Xingfa Group (600141.SS) rose 22.15% in the past 27 trading days, from 28.58 yuan to 34.91 yuan, with a current market value of 38.51 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 24.24 [0]. In the third quarter of 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 9.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%; net profit attributable to parent was 592 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and a month-on-month increase of 42.15% [2].

:
The new phosphate ore production in 2025 is expected to be 12.06 million tons; based on the domestic phosphate ore production of 95.37 million tons in 2024, the corresponding phosphate ore production in 2025 is 107.43 million tons, with relatively limited increments [4], and the supply-demand gap will still exist.

Based on the current supply-demand pattern and industry trends, leading enterprises with rich phosphate ore resources and mining capabilities have strong profit certainty and long-term allocation value, but investors need to fully recognize the cyclical characteristics of the industry and related risk factors.