Escalating US-Iran Tensions Impact on Global Oil Markets and Energy Sector Investments

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The current US-Iran geopolitical standoff presents significant implications for global oil markets and energy sector investments. With the US military preparing for potential sustained operations against Iran, market participants are assessing supply disruption risks, price volatility scenarios, and investment strategies in the energy sector.

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Based on the latest trading data, WTI crude oil prices have exhibited notable volatility reflecting geopolitical tensions [0]:

Metric	Value
Latest Close (Feb 13, 2026)	$57.67/barrel
Period High	$66.48/barrel
Period Low	$55.76/barrel
Average Price	$61.06/barrel

Oil prices experienced significant upward movement in late January 2026 when US-Iran tensions escalated, with prices jumping from around $57 to above $66 per barrel—a gain of approximately 17% [1][2]. However, prices have since retreated as concerns about immediate supply disruptions have eased [3][4].

The Energy sector is currently

on the day, ranking second among US sectors, reflecting market interest in the geopolitical situation [0]:

Sector	Daily Change
Utilities	+3.55%
Energy	+1.64%
Basic Materials	+1.56%
Technology	-0.68%

Major US energy equities, including

and , are heading for their best monthly performance since 2022, driven by rising crude prices amid Iran war fears [5].

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Iran is the

, pumping approximately [1]. According to BloombergNEF analysis:

• Baseline forecast
  : Brent crude averaging
  $55/barrel
  in 2026 (assuming no Iran-related disruptions)
• Disruption scenario
  : If Iran’s oil exports are completely removed starting February, Brent could rise to an average of
  $71/barrel
  in Q2 2026
• Current war premium
  : Only modest premium of approximately
  $4/barrel
  is currently built into prices [1]

The oil market is currently driven by several competing factors [2][3][4]:

1. Upside pressures:
   • US-Iran geopolitical tensions
   • Tightening sanctions on Russian oil
   • Expectations of lower exports from various producers

2. Downside pressures:
   • IEA’s downward revision of 2026 global oil demand growth forecast
   • Saudi Arabia increasing crude exports to multi-year highs
   • Oversupply concerns

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Factor	Impact
Integrated Majors (XOM, CVX)	Potential upside from price volatility; strong free cash flow generation expected [5]
Exploration & Production (E&P)	Higher sensitivity to spot prices; could see margin expansion
Oilfield Services (SLB)	Activity levels depend on sustained high prices
Refining	Margin outlook depends on crack spread dynamics

Past conflicts in the Middle East have typically generated

in oil prices [1]. However, analysts note that the current market has proven relatively resilient, with prices retreating as acute risk perception diminishes [3][4].

• Significant Iranian supply disruption could push Brent to $70-90/barrel range [1]
• Energy sector stocks could continue rally, potentially matching 2022-2023 performance

• Diplomatic resolution could remove risk premium
• Oversupply concerns (Saudi production increases) could pressure prices
• Global demand slowdown (as projected by IEA) limits upside

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Scenario	Probability	Oil Price Impact	Investment Implication
Base Case	Moderate	$55-65/bbl	Energy sector stable; focus on dividend-paying majors
Escalation	Low-Medium	$70-80/bbl	Significant upside for E&P and integrated names
Diplomatic Resolution	Moderate	$50-60/bbl	Risk premium evaporates; sector correction possible

Analysts note that

[4]. The market continues to await news on diplomatic relations between Iran and the US, as well as developments in Russia-Ukraine peace efforts [3][4].

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Investors should closely track:

1. US-Iran diplomatic developments
   - Any de-escalation would likely remove the war premium
2. Iranian oil export flows
   - Vessel tracking data showing actual shipment volumes
3. OPEC+ production decisions
   - Saudi Arabia’s pricing strategy signals
4. US inventory data
   - API and EIA weekly reports (recent API data showed 11.1M barrel draw) [2]
5. IEA/OECD demand forecasts
   - Global consumption trajectory

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The escalating US-Iran tensions introduce meaningful volatility into global oil markets, with potential for both upside and downside scenarios. Currently, the market has priced in only a modest war premium of approximately $4/barrel, suggesting significant price sensitivity to any actual supply disruptions [1].

For energy sector investors, the current environment favors

(Exxon Mobil, Chevron) with strong balance sheets and cash flow generation capabilities, which can weather price volatility while potentially benefiting from short-term price spikes. However, investors should remain agile and monitor geopolitical developments closely, as rapid shifts in the situation could dramatically alter the risk-reward calculus.

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[1] BloombergNEF - “Oil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran Disruption” (https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/oil-can-hit-91-a-barrel-in-late-2026-on-iran-disruption/)

[2] ING Think - “The Commodities Feed: Oil rising as US-Iran tensions re-emerge” (https://think.ing.com/articles/the-commodities-feed-us-iran-tensions-re-emerge040226/)

[3] Energy Connect - “Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Iran Concerns Ebb, Wider Markets Drop” (https://www.energyconnects.com/news/oil/2026/february/oil-set-for-weekly-loss-as-iran-concerns-ebb-wider-markets-drop/)

[4] The National - “Oil headed for consecutive weekly loss as US-Iran conflict risks subside” (https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/02/13/oil-headed-for-second-consecutive-weekly-loss-as-us-iran-conflict-risks-subside/)

[5] Energy Connect - “Exxon, Chevron Head for Best Month Since 2022 as Crude Surges” (https://www.energyconnects.com/news/oil/2026/january/exxon-chevron-head-for-best-month-since-2022-as-crude-surges/)

[0] Ginlix API Data (Oil price data, sector performance)