Analysis of Popular Drivers and Slowdown in Performance Growth of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has recently become a popular stock in the market, mainly driven by the share repurchase plan announced on November 6, 2025, the interim profit distribution plan (23.957 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 30.01 billion yuan), and the optimization of the company’s governance structure (revising the articles of association and abolishing the supervisory board) [0]. These measures have boosted investor confidence and significantly increased trading volume [1].

From the financial performance perspective, in the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 128.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%; net profit of 64.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, both growth rates hitting new lows since 2015 [3]. In the third quarter alone, operating revenue was 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.56%; net profit was 19.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, with growth rates slowing further [2]. By product, Maotai liquor revenue was 110.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, but series liquor revenue was 17.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.78% [3].

At the industry level, the liquor industry is in a period of adjustment, with an average inventory turnover days of 900 days, and market share is concentrating on strong brands [0]. As an industry leader, Kweichow Moutai has shown strong resilience, but also faces demand-side challenges, with its 2025 revenue growth target lowered to 9% (the first single-digit target since 2017) [0].

1. Popular Drivers and Performance Differentiation
   : Capital operations such as share repurchases and high dividends are the direct reasons for short-term popularity, but the slowdown in performance growth reflects long-term growth pressure.
2. Product Structure Challenges
   : The decline in series liquor revenue indicates insufficient competitiveness in non-high-end product areas, and the risk of relying on Maotai liquor alone is emerging.
3. Leading Position in Industry Adjustment
   : Despite the slowdown in growth, Moutai still has relative advantages under the trend of share concentration during the industry adjustment period, but needs to address weak demand and high inventory issues.

• Sustained Slowdown in Performance Growth
  : The third quarter growth rate was less than 1%, and if demand does not improve, there will be great pressure to achieve the full-year target [2][3].
• Industry Adjustment Pressure
  : The liquor industry has high inventory and high demand elasticity; high-end liquor demand is impacted by the slowdown in economic growth [0].
• Single Product Structure
  : Poor performance of series liquor increases the risk of relying on Maotai liquor [3].

• Capital Operations Boost Confidence
  : Share repurchases and high dividends can stabilize stock prices and enhance investor confidence [0].
• Market Share Concentration
  : During the industry adjustment period, Moutai is expected to further seize market share from small and medium-sized brands [0].
• Governance Optimization
  : Abolishing the supervisory board improves operational efficiency and may bring management dividends [0].

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has recently become a popular stock due to capital operations, but attention should be paid to the long-term impact of the slowdown in performance growth and industry adjustment. The current stock price is in the range of 1460-1470 yuan; investors should balance short-term benefits and long-term risks, and pay attention to subsequent demand changes and the company’s response strategies [1][0].