Counterintuitive Stock Movements Post-Earnings: Beats Falling & Misses Rallying (Nov 2025)

The user observed counterintuitive stock movements on November 14, 2025: several stocks declined despite beating earnings estimates, while others rallied after missing. Examples include Circle (CRCL) falling 5% pre-market after a Q3 profit beat [1], DoorDash (DASH) jumping 6% post-miss due to an Old Navy partnership [3], and Applied Materials (AMAT)/Occidental Petroleum (OXY) dipping after beats [1][2]. Key drivers identified are:

• Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
  : Investors priced in positive results before announcements [2]
• Weaker Future Guidance
  : Even beats were overshadowed by poor outlook signals [1]
• Secondary Metrics
  : Misses on margins or user growth offset EPS beats [2]
• External Catalysts
  : Partnerships (like DASH’s) override earnings misses [3]

1. Shift to Future Outlook
   : Investors prioritize guidance over current EPS, indicating a long-term focus [2]
2. Catalyst Override
   : External events (partnerships) can negate earnings misses, as seen with DASH [3]
3. Sector Sensitivity
   : Tech/crypto (CRCL, AMAT) are more sensitive to guidance changes vs consumer discretionary (DASH) to partnerships [1][3]

• Risks
  : Overreliance on headline EPS leads to misinformed decisions [2]; volatility from unanticipated guidance shifts [1]
• Opportunities
  : Identifying hidden value via secondary metrics or external catalysts (e.g., partnerships) [3]

• Beat & Fall
  : CRCL (5% drop), AMAT/OXY (dips) driven by guidance/secondary metric concerns [1][2]
• Miss & Rally
  : DASH (6% jump) fueled by Old Navy partnership [3]
• Takeaway
  : Full earnings reports (including guidance) and external news are critical for accurate market assessment [2][3]

[1] Yahoo Finance (2025)
[2] Investopedia (n.d.)
[3] Investopedia (2025)
[4] Yahoo Finance (2025)