Renmin Tongtai (600829) In-Depth Analysis of 6 Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Multiple Driving Factors and Risks of Fundamental Deviation

Renmin Tongtai (600829), as the largest pharmaceutical distribution service network enterprise in Heilongjiang Province, mainly engages in pharmaceutical wholesale, retail, logistics, and medical services [0]. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s revenue was 7.846 billion yuan (YoY +2.19%), but net profit was only 112 million yuan (YoY -45.69%), showing a significant decline in profitability [0]. Despite fundamental pressure, the company’s stock price achieved 6 consecutive limit-up days in November, with a cumulative increase of 61.13% and the price-to-earnings ratio climbing to 66.92 times [0].

Driving factors include: 1) Hot money speculation triggered by name association - the word ‘Renmin’ (People) in the company’s name was over-interpreted by the market, becoming a focus of speculative funds [0]; 2) Overall positive for the pharmaceutical sector - the rapid spread of the flu epidemic drove the weekly return of the pharmaceutical commercial sub-sector to 5.66%, performing prominently among 31 sub-industries [0]; 3) Business highlight support - the DTP professional pharmacy business grew 21.14% year-on-year, becoming a short-term growth point [0]; 4) Capital side promotion - major funds flowed in significantly, with single-day limit-up locking funds reaching as high as 82.9641 million yuan [0].

1. Serious deviation between speculation and fundamentals
   : The company’s stock price increase significantly exceeds fundamental support, and the PE level is much higher than the industry average, reflecting strong market speculative sentiment [0]; 2.
   Superimposed effect of multiple factors
   : This limit-up is a comprehensive result of name speculation, short-term industry benefits, partial business growth, and capital promotion, with the name factor dominating [0]; 3.
   Company’s active risk warning
   : The company has issued an announcement acknowledging the stock price deviation from fundamentals, showing management’s concern about the current valuation [6].

: 1) Valuation bubble risk - high PE lacks profit support and is prone to correction [0]; 2) Regulatory attention risk - abnormal stock price fluctuations may trigger inquiries from the exchange [0]; 3) Sustained performance pressure - the downward trend of net profit has not changed, and long-term growth momentum is insufficient [0].

: 1) Short-term industry dividend - the sustained flu epidemic may support the short-term performance of the pharmaceutical sector [7]; 2) DTP business expansion - this business is growing rapidly; if it continues to exert efforts, it may improve long-term performance [0].

: Risk priority is higher than opportunity; short-term speculation needs to be alert to correction risks, and long-term investment needs to wait for fundamental improvement.

Renmin Tongtai (600829)'s recent 6 consecutive limit-up days are the result of the combined effect of market speculation and short-term industry benefits, but the stock price seriously deviates from fundamentals. Investors should view the short-term increase rationally, pay attention to changes in the company’s fundamentals and industry trends, and avoid blind chasing of high prices.