SPX Analysis: Government Shutdown Impact, Earnings Catalysts & Key Levels

This analysis is based on the Schaeffers Research report [1] published on 2025-11-17, outlining takeaways from the recent government shutdown and ongoing earnings season. The SPX is currently wedged between support at its 50-day moving average (~6700) and resistance at the 6760 level, having reclaimed the 50-day MA but failed to hold 6760. Sector performance shows energy (+3.11%) and tech (+2.13%) leading gains, while retail stocks (HD: -1.55%, TGT: -0.79%) lag ahead of earnings. The SPX closed at 6734.11 on Nov14, with mixed index performance (NASDAQ up 1.58%, Dow down 0.16%) [0].

1. Catalyst-SPX Link
   : NVDA’s earnings (Nov19) are a critical driver for the SPX, as its weight in tech sectors could influence whether the index breaks resistance or support.
2. Sentiment vs Performance
   : A rising 10-day put/call ratio (0.51 from 0.42) signals cautious option buyer sentiment, yet broad sector gains indicate underlying market resilience.
3. Retail Sector Context
   : HD and TGT’s pre-earnings declines reflect concerns about consumer demand post-government shutdown.

1. NVDA Earnings Volatility
   : A miss in NVDA’s earnings could trigger tech sector selloffs and push the SPX below its 50-day MA support [0,1].
2. Employment Data Impact
   : The delayed September employment report (Nov21) may shift Fed rate cut expectations, leading to market sentiment changes [1].
3. Technical Breakdown
   : Failure to hold the 50-day MA (~6700) could signal a reversal of the SPX’s bullish trend since May [0,1].

1. Sector Momentum
   : Energy and tech sectors continue to show strong performance, offering potential upside for investors focused on these areas [0].
2. Breakout Potential
   : If the SPX breaks above the 6760 resistance level, it could resume its bullish trajectory [1].

• Critical Data Points
  : SPX close at 6734.11 (Nov14), NVDA at $190.17 (+1.77% Nov17), HD at $362.36 (-1.55% Nov17), TGT at $89.90 (-0.79% Nov17) [0].
• Upcoming Catalysts
  : NVDA earnings (Nov19), HD (Nov18), WMT (Nov19), TGT (Nov19) reports, delayed September employment data (Nov21) [1].
• Sector Trends
  : Energy (+3.11%) and tech (+2.13%) lead; consumer defensive (-0.40%) and basic materials (-0.93%) lag [0].