Schwab's Kathy Jones: Sizeable Jobs Data Revisions Expected, FOMC Has Little Room to Cut Rates

2025-11-17 (EST)
2025-11-17 (UTC)

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On November 17, 2025, the Schwab Network released a video featuring

(Schwab’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist) discussing two key themes post-U.S. government shutdown:

1. Jobs Data Revisions:
   Jones expects “sizeable revisions” to the September nonfarm payrolls report (slated for Thursday release) due to potential obsolescence from the 43-day shutdown.
2. FOMC Policy Constraints:
   High inflation levels give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) little “room to run” for a December interest rate cut.

The video highlights market uncertainty around delayed economic data releases following the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. [1]

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• Defensive sectors led gains:
  Utilities (+0.9095%) and Healthcare (+0.8556%) outperformed, reflecting investor flight to stability amid policy uncertainty. [2]
• Financials underperformed:
  Financial Services (-0.9722%) declined, likely due to tempered rate-cut expectations (Jones’ comment on FOMC’s limited room to ease policy impacts net interest margin outlook). [2]

• Tech-heavy indices rose:
  NASDAQ Composite (+0.56%) benefited from modest tech sector gains (+0.1000%). [3]
• Broad market mixed:
  S&P 500 (+0.24%) edged up, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.01%) was flat and Russell 2000 (-0.21%) declined (small-cap sensitivity to economic uncertainty). [3]

• 10-year yield inched lower:
  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell <1 basis point to 4.139% as investors priced in delayed data risks. [4]

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Metric	Value	Source
Top Sectors	Utilities (+0.9095%), Healthcare (+0.8556%)	[2]
Bottom Sector	Financial Services (-0.9722%)	[2]
NASDAQ Composite	+0.56%	[3]
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)	-0.39%	[5]
Bank of America (BAC)	-0.70%	[6]
NextEra Energy (NEE)	+1.45% (utility sector leader)	[7]
Duke Energy (DUK)	+0.35%	[8]
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield	4.139%	[4]

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1. Exact September Jobs Report Release Date:
   The event mentions a Thursday release, but BLS schedules do not explicitly confirm this (preliminary revisions were issued Sept 9, final in Feb 2026).
2. October CPI Data Status:
   White House officials warned October CPI and jobs reports may never be released due to shutdown-related data corruption. [10]
3. Magnitude of Jobs Revisions:
   Jones’ “sizeable” revision claim lacks quantitative context (historical revisions average ±0.2% of nonfarm employment). [11]

• Policy Uncertainty:
  The Fed’s dual mandate (inflation vs. employment) is strained—delayed data makes policy calibration harder. [1]
• Sector Rotation:
  Defensive sector outperformance suggests investors are hedging against volatility from upcoming data releases. [2]

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• Data Integrity Concerns:
  White House warnings of permanent damage to October economic data raise questions about the reliability of future releases. Users should be aware this may significantly impact Fed policy decisions. [10]
• Policy Volatility:
  If jobs revisions are larger than expected, the Fed may shift its stance—creating swings in rate-sensitive sectors (financials, real estate). [1]
• Market Sensitivity:
  Delayed data releases could lead to overreactions to any new information (e.g., a surprise in the September jobs report). [4]

1. Thursday’s Jobs Report:
   Track the magnitude of revisions and alignment with Jones’ “sizeable” claim.
2. Inflation Data Updates:
   Watch for official announcements on October CPI release status.
3. FOMC Commentary:
   Monitor Fed speakers for hints on December rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns.

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This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Delayed economic data releases and potential data integrity issues may increase market volatility. Users should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions.