Seeking Alpha Article Analysis: Newmont (NEM) Free Cash Flow Yield Claim and Market Impact

On 2025-11-17, a Seeking Alpha article claimed Newmont (NEM) has a double-digit FCF yield, positioning it favorably against low-yielding mega-cap tech stocks [5]. However, available data shows a TTM FCF yield of ~4.73% (using TTM FCF of $4.486B [3] and market cap of $94.75B [0]). The article had modest market impact: NEM closed at $87.16 (-0.30%) on 2025-11-17, aligning with the Basic Materials sector’s 0.31% decline [0]. NEM reported strong Q3 2025 FCF of $1.571B (fourth consecutive quarter over $1B) [1][3], beating revenue ($5.52B vs $5.19B estimates) and EPS ($1.71 vs $1.44 estimates) [1][4].

1. FCF Yield Discrepancy
   : The article’s double-digit FCF yield claim conflicts with actual data, highlighting a potential metric misinterpretation or error.
2. Market Alignment
   : NEM’s price movement mirrored sector trends, indicating the article did not drive significant trading activity.
3. Analyst Consensus
   : NEM has a 71.4% buy rating with a $104.30 consensus target (+20.1% upside) [0], supporting its value proposition despite the yield discrepancy.

• Operational Headwinds
  : Q4 FCF may decline due to Yanacocha water treatment spending and severance payments [4].
• Gold Price Volatility
  : As a gold miner, NEM’s revenue is sensitive to gold price fluctuations [0][1].
• Valuation Risk
  : Strong year-to-date (YTD) returns of 126.28% [0] may limit further upside.

• Strong Financials
  : High ROE (22.72%) and net profit margin (33.82%) [0] support long-term value.
• Analyst Upside
  : Consensus target of $104.30 offers potential upside [0].

• FCF Metrics
  : Q3 2025 FCF: $1.571B; TTM FCF: $4.486B [3].
• Price Movement
  : NEM closed at $87.16 (-0.30%) on 2025-11-17 [0].
• Analyst Ratings
  : 71.4% buy, $104.30 target [0].
• Q3 Performance
  : Beat revenue and EPS estimates [1][4].