Analysis of Renmin Tongtai's Six Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Significant Risk of Irrational Speculation

Renmin Tongtai (600829) has recently seen a short-term speculation boom, with six consecutive limit-up days from November 10 to 17, 2025, accumulating a 77.21% increase [0]. However, the company’s fundamentals are seriously deviated from its stock price performance: its net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 45.69% year-on-year [0], and its price-to-earnings ratio of 73.64 times is significantly higher than the average of 18.91 times for the pharmaceutical commercial industry [0]. The company has issued multiple announcements to warn of risks, clearly stating that the current stock price increase is seriously deviated from its operating performance and industry conditions [2,3,4]. From transaction data, Guosen Securities Zhejiang Internet Branch net bought 17.0159 million yuan on November 18 [1], showing signs of participation by hot money. On that day, the A-share market was weak and volatile overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% [5], while Renmin Tongtai still maintained an upward trend, further highlighting its short-term speculative nature.

1. Obvious short-term speculation characteristics
   : Consecutive limit-up days without fundamental support, consistent with the short-term speculative model driven by hot money [0].
2. Overheated market sentiment
   : Despite the company’s repeated risk warnings, the stock price continues to rise, reflecting the irrational sentiment of some investors who ignore fundamentals [2,3].
3. Industry comparison highlights deviation
   : The pharmaceutical commercial industry has a low overall P/E ratio, and Renmin Tongtai’s high valuation lacks an industry basis [0].

• Stock price correction risk
  : The stock price that is seriously deviated from fundamentals may have a large correction, and investors need to be alert to short-term fluctuations [0].
• Regulatory attention risk
  : Continuous abnormal fluctuations may attract regulatory attention, increasing transaction uncertainty [2].
• Sustained performance decline risk
  : The company’s net profit dropped significantly in the first three quarters, and there is uncertainty about future performance improvement [0].

In the short term, there are no clear investment opportunities; it is necessary to wait for signals of fundamental improvement.

Renmin Tongtai’s recent stock price performance is mainly driven by short-term speculation, which is seriously deviated from the company’s fundamentals and industry conditions. Investors should view stock price fluctuations rationally, pay attention to the company’s performance improvement and industry trends, and avoid blind following.