Analysis of AI Trading Experiment Impact on NVDA and Related Instruments

On November 17, 2025, a Reddit user launched a real-time AI trading competition with 24 models (GPT-5, DeepSeek, Gemini) trading NVDA, BTC, MES, EUR/USD, and Gold using three input types: price-only, news+price, or technical+price [1]. Early results indicate news-based models are leading [1].

NVDA’s price showed mixed movement: on Nov17 (pre-event), it closed at $186.60 (+0.34%) with 173.63M volume [0]. On Nov18 (post-event), it dropped 1.88% to $186.60 (from $190.17 previous close) [0], steeper than the tech sector’s -0.31% decline [3]. This underperformance is likely driven by Peter Thiel’s full Q3 exit from NVDA (selling ~537k shares) [2], rather than the AI experiment.

1. News Sentiment Value
   : The early success of news-based AI models highlights the potential of integrating sentiment analysis into trading strategies for better risk management [1].
2. Concurrent Events Impact
   : NVDA’s price drop is more attributed to high-profile investor exit (Thiel) than the AI experiment, showing how multiple news streams influence asset prices [2].
3. Sector Context
   : The tech sector outperformed most sectors on Nov18, but NVDA’s larger decline underscores company-specific factors over sector trends [3].

• Investor Sentiment
  : Thiel’s exit may signal valuation concerns (NVDA’s P/E ratio of52.5x) [2].
• Volatility
  : The AI experiment’s public nature could lead to speculative trading in affected assets [1].
• Valuation
  : NVDA’s premium P/B ratio (45.41x) makes it sensitive to sentiment shifts [2].

• AI Strategy Enhancement
  : News-based models’ early success suggests opportunities to refine trading strategies with sentiment analysis [1].
• Upside Potential
  : Analyst consensus target of $235 (+25.9% from current price) indicates long-term upside [2].

• NVDA current price: $186.60 (Nov18, -1.88%) [0].
• Tech sector change (Nov18): -0.31% [3].
• AI competition: 24 models, news-based leading early [1].
• Thiel’s exit: Full Q3 divestment of ~537k NVDA shares [2].
• Analyst target: $235 (+25.9%) [2].