Home Depot (HD) Q3 2025 Earnings & Outlook Cut Analysis Report

##1. Event Summary
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) released Q3 2025 earnings on November18, missing Wall Street EPS estimates while slightly beating revenue expectations. The company revised its full-year outlook downward, citing sluggish housing market activity and consumer uncertainty about large home improvement projects. This news led to a ~4% pre-market drop, translating to a 3.41% decline in regular trading as of mid-day EST [0][1].

Key details:

• Q3 EPS: $3.74 (missed by $0.10 vs expected $3.84)
• Q3 Revenue: $41.35B (beat by $0.24B vs expected $41.11B)
• Full-Year Guidance Revision:
  • Adjusted EPS: Now expects a
    5% YoY decline
    (up from prior 2% decline)
  • Comparable Sales:
    Slightly positive
    (down from prior1% growth)
• Acquisition Impact: GMS Inc. contributed ~$900M to Q3 revenue, masking lower organic growth [1][4].

##2. Market Impact Analysis

• HD Stock
  : Down3.41% to $345.81 (09:57 EST) with volume of2.29M (vs 3.46M avg) [0].
• Rival Performance
  : Lowe’s (LOW) fell1.28% to $222.13 (sentiment spillover; LOW reports Q3 earnings tomorrow) [1][6].
• Sector Impact
  : Consumer Cyclical sector declined by 1.13% (aligning with HD’s performance) [2].

• HD’s stock is down
  6.82% over5 days
  and
  10.85% YTD
  [0].
• Analyst consensus remains mostly bullish (60.7% Buy) but with a $420 target (21% upside) that may be revised post-outlook cut [0].

##3. Key Data Extraction

##4. Affected Instruments

• Direct
  : Home Depot (HD)
• Related
  : Lowe’s (LOW) (rival), GMS Inc. (acquired subsidiary)
• Sector
  : Consumer Cyclical (down1.13% today) [2]
• Indirect
  : Home improvement suppliers (information gap on impact)

##5. Context for Decision-Makers

• Impact on upstream suppliers (e.g., building material manufacturers)
• Lowe’s Q3 earnings (Nov19) and its effect on sector sentiment
• Organic growth trends (adjusting for GMS acquisition)

• Bright Spots
  : Online sales up11% YoY; GMS acquisition adds scale [1]
• Challenges
  : Consumer deferral of large projects; weak housing turnover (mortgage rates6-7%); lack of storm activity [1][4]

• Consecutive EPS Misses
  : HD has missed EPS estimates for three straight quarters, indicating ongoing operational challenges [1].
• Downward Guidance
  : The5% EPS decline guidance (up from2%) signals prolonged demand weakness [2][5].
• Housing Market Risk
  : Stagnant housing turnover reduces demand for renovation projects [1][4].

• Lowe’s Q3 earnings (Nov19) to validate sector trends
• U.S. housing starts/existing home sales data
• Consumer confidence indices (University of Michigan/Conference Board)
• HD’s organic growth in upcoming quarters (excluding acquisitions)

##6. Risk Considerations
Users should be aware of the following risks:

1. Operational Underperformance
   : Three consecutive EPS misses suggest HD is struggling to meet market expectations [1].
2. Macro Headwinds
   : The housing market slowdown and high mortgage rates are likely to persist,压制 demand for home improvement [1][4].
3. Consumer Behavior Shift
   : Homeowners are deferring large projects, which may impact HD’s top line in2026 [1][5].
4. Competitive Pressure
   : Lowe’s performance tomorrow could highlight relative strengths/weaknesses in HD’s strategy [6].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (internal tools: get_stock_realtime_quote, get_company_overview)
[1] Blockonomi: Home Depot (HD) Stock: Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook (URL: https://blockonomi.com/home-depot-hd-stock-retailer-cuts-profit-outlook-as-housing-slump-weighs-on-sales/)
[2] MarketBeat: Home Depot (NYSE:HD) Issues FY2025 Earnings Guidance (URL: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/home-depot-nysehd-issues-fy-2025-earnings-guidance-2025-11-18/)
[3] CNBC: Home Depot (HD) Q32025 Earnings (URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/18/home-depot-hd-q3-2025-earnings-.html)
[4] PR Newswire: Home Depot Announces Third Quarter Fiscal2025 Results (URL: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-home-depot-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-2025-results-updates-fiscal-2025-guidance-302617853.html)
[5] Investors.com: Dow Retailer Home Depot Extends Downtrend (URL: https://www.investors.com/news/home-depot-earnings-q3-dow-jones-hd-stock-lowes-low-stock/)
[6] StockStory: Lowe’s (LOW) To Report Earnings Tomorrow (URL: https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nyse/low/news/earnings/lowes-low-to-report-earnings-tomorrow-here-is-what-to-expect-3/)