Home Depot Q3 2025 Results & Outlook Cut Analysis: Impact on HD and Sector

On November 18, 2025, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reported Q3 results and revised its full-year outlook, leading to a ~3.63% stock decline. Key details:

• Earnings Miss:
  Adjusted EPS of $3.74 missed Wall Street expectations by $0.10 (third consecutive quarter of misses) [1].
• Revenue Beat:
  Q3 revenue of $41.35B exceeded estimates by $0.20B [1].
• Outlook Revision:
  Full-year adjusted EPS forecast revised to a
  5% YoY decline
  (from -2% YoY), and comparable store sales guidance lowered to “slightly positive” (from 1% growth) [1].
• CEO Commentary:
  Ted Decker cited three headwinds: lack of storms (reducing weather-related demand), consumer uncertainty, and ongoing housing market pressure [1][2].

• Stock Performance:
  HD fell to $345.02 (-3.63% from previous close of $358.03) with
  1.3x average trading volume
  (4.49M vs. 3.46M), indicating strong selling pressure [0]. Rival Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) declined ~1.30% ($222.07 from $225.00) [0].
• Sector Performance:
  The Consumer Cyclical sector dropped
  0.78786%
  , underperforming the broader market [0]. HD’s decline was more severe than the sector average, reflecting company-specific issues [2].

• Directly Impacted:
  Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW) [0].
• Related Sectors:
  Consumer Cyclical (-0.78786%), Real Estate (-0.41448%—linked to housing weakness) [0].
• Upstream Suppliers:
  Lumber, hardware, and appliance manufacturers (indirectly affected by reduced demand outlook) [3].

• Information Gaps:
  HD’s Q3 earnings transcript is not yet available, limiting detailed management insights [0]. Lowe’s Q3 results (Nov19) will clarify if the slowdown is sector-wide [0].
• Multi-Perspective Analysis:
  HD’s performance reflects both company-specific issues (three consecutive misses) and macro headwinds (housing slump, consumer uncertainty) [1][3].
• Key Monitoring Factors:
  Lowe’s earnings report (Nov19), monthly housing data, consumer confidence indices [0][1][3].

• Consecutive Earnings Misses:
  Three-quarter streak of missed EPS expectations raises operational concerns [2].
• Housing Market Slump:
  Ongoing decline in home turnover and high mortgage rates may pressure revenues [1][3].
• Consumer Uncertainty:
  Shoppers prioritize experiences over home improvement [1].