S&P 500 November 2025 Performance: Pullback vs. 2008 Crisis Context

The S&P 500’s ~3.26% decline from October 31 to November 18,2025 is its worst November since 2008, but significantly milder than the 7.48% drop that year [0,1]. Sector rotation is evident: energy (+2.01%) outperforms due to commodity price movements, while consumer defensive (-1.62%) and technology (-0.55%) lag amid inflation and demand concerns [0]. Drivers include tariffs, slowing hiring, and plummeting consumer sentiment [2]. Daily volatility (~0.69%) is far lower than 2008’s 4.48%, framing this as a pullback rather than a crisis [0].

• Credit Conditions
  : Leveraged loan spreads remain at historical lows since 2009, signaling limited corporate credit stress [3].
• Funding Markets
  : Repo markets are tight due to Fed quantitative tightening and Treasury cash management [5].
• Technical Break
  : The S&P500 closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April2025, a potential short-term weakness signal [4].
• Contextual Difference
  : Unlike 2008’s systemic crisis, this decline stems from policy shifts and sentiment, not structural failure.

• Technical Selling
  : The 50-day MA break may trigger algorithmic selling [4].
• Liquidity Stress
  : Persistent repo tightness could amplify equity declines [5].
• Sentiment Spillover
  : Plummeting consumer sentiment may reduce spending and earnings [2].

• Energy sector strength offers relative outperformance potential.
• Mild volatility suggests limited systemic risk, creating selective buying opportunities.

Decision-makers should prioritize monitoring repo rates, high-yield credit spreads, and market breadth over equity volatility alone. Critical gaps include exact repo rates, high-yield spread data, and tariff impact on earnings. This decline is policy-driven, not systemic, so overreaction is unwarranted.