Goldman Sachs Analysis: 2025 Layoffs Push 15% of Unemployed into Gig Work on Uber, DoorDash, Instacart

The U.S. labor market cooled significantly in 2025 with over 1.1M layoffs (44% YoY increase) led by tech and retail sectors [1][2]. Goldman Sachs found 15% of unemployed/not in labor force individuals moved to gig work (Uber, DoorDash, Instacart) to fill income gaps [1]. Gig work acts as a partial buffer but lacks stability—workers earn only 50-65% of traditional wages and no benefits [1]. Official unemployment rates undercount true distress as gig workers are often not classified as unemployed [0][1].

1. Gig Economy Buffer Limits
   : The gig economy absorbs displaced workers but is inadequate for full recession support [1].
2. Policy Misalignment Risk
   : Underestimated unemployment may delay Fed rate cuts, prolonging economic strain [1].
3. Worker Precarity
   : Lower gig wages and no benefits increase financial vulnerability, threatening consumer spending [0][1].

• Risks
  : Worker poverty/debt (lower earnings), policy delays (undercounted unemployment), gig platform margin pressure (wage increases) [1].
• Opportunities
  : Gig platform revenue growth (UBER, DASH, CART), targeted worker support reforms [0][1].

• 2025 layoffs: 1.1M (44% YoY) [1][2]
• Gig absorption:15% of unemployed/not in labor force [1]
• Gig wage gap:50-65% of traditional wages [1]
• Oct 2025 job losses:~50k (largest since 2020) [2]
• Worker anxiety:71% expect rising unemployment (highest since1980) [2]