Analysis Report: S&P 500 November 2025 Performance vs. 2008 Comparison

As of November 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced a

since the start of the month (Nov 3–18), making it the worst November performance since 2008. This drop is driven by a combination of widening credit spreads, regional bank weakness, and concerns over off-balance sheet debt transparency highlighted by the First Brands Group bankruptcy. While the decline is notable, it remains less severe than the recorded in November 2008 during the global financial crisis [3].

• Equity Markets
  : The S&P 500 decline has been broad-based but uneven. Defensive sectors like Energy (+2.01%) outperformed, while Consumer Defensive (-1.62%) and Technology (-0.55%) lagged [1].
• Credit Markets
  : Corporate credit spreads widened moderately—high-yield spreads increased 6 basis points (bps) and investment-grade spreads rose from 83 to 84 bps on November 18 [1].
• Regional Banks
  : The KBW Regional Banking Index (^KRX) fell
  4.54%
  over the past month, reflecting investor concerns over credit quality [2].

• Systemic Risk
  : Unlike 2008, current market conditions do not show signs of systemic stress. Repo markets remain stable (overnight repo rate at 4.00% on Nov 14) [1], and the VIX volatility index (19.83 on Nov14) is at moderate levels (below 20) [4].
• Sector Rotation
  : Investors are shifting to defensive sectors (Energy, Utilities) amid uncertainty, while growth sectors (Technology) face pressure from rising interest rate expectations.

Metric	Value	Source
S&P 500 November 2025 Decline (Nov3–18)	-3.4%	[0]
November 2008 S&P500 Decline	-7.5%	[3]
High-Yield Credit Spread Widening (Nov18)	+6 bps	[1]
KBW Regional Banking Index 1-Month Change	-4.54%	[2]
VIX Index (Nov14)	19.83	[4]
First Brands Total Debt (Bankruptcy)	$11.6B	[5]

1. Directly Impacted
   :
   • S&P500 components (^GSPC)
   • Regional banks (^KRX, USB, MTB)
   • Auto parts sector (First Brands Group, related suppliers)

2. Related Sectors
   :
   • Financials (credit spreads, private debt markets)
   • Energy (outperforming amid defensive rotation)
   • Consumer Defensive (underperforming due to demand concerns)

• Need to monitor if credit spreads continue to widen beyond current levels.
• Assess potential spillover effects from the First Brands bankruptcy to other auto parts suppliers.
• Track regional bank earnings for signs of increasing credit risk.

• Credit Spread Risk
  : Widening spreads may indicate growing investor caution, though current levels are not alarmingly high.
• Off-Balance Sheet Transparency
  : The First Brands case highlights the need for better disclosure of hidden debt in private credit markets.
• Regional Bank Vulnerability
  : Continued weakness in regional banks could signal stress in smaller lending institutions.

1. Fed Policy
   : Upcoming interest rate decisions will influence market sentiment.
2. Credit Market Conditions
   : Weekly updates on high-yield and investment-grade spreads.
3. Bank Earnings
   : Regional bank quarterly reports for insights into loan quality.

• Users should be aware that widening credit spreads and regional bank weakness may lead to tighter financial conditions for businesses and consumers.
• The First Brands bankruptcy exposes off-balance sheet debt risks that could result in increased scrutiny of private credit transactions.
• While current market conditions do not mirror 2008, investors should remain cautious as November historically has higher volatility.

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.