S&P 500 (SPX) 100-Day SMA Break Analysis Report

2025-11-21

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A Reddit post (timestamp:

) claimed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had broken below its . The post included a chart and contextualized the SMA as a lagging trend confirmation indicator rather than a predictive tool.

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• Intraday Reversal
  : The SPX dipped below SMA100 early on Nov 21 but recovered to close at
  6,654.34
  (up +1.77% for the day), indicating strong buying support at the SMA level [2].
• Sentiment
  : Mixed—initial bearishness from the dip was offset by late-day bullish momentum.

• The SPX remains above its SMA100 (
  6,548.59
  ) but is below its
  20-day MA (6,765.39)
  and
  50-day MA (6,712.30)
  , signaling short-term downward momentum despite long-term uptrend retention [2].

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Metric	Value	Source
Nov21 Closing Price	6,654.34	[2]
SMA100	6,548.59	[2]
SMA50	6,712.30	[2]
SMA20	6,765.39	[2]
9-Day Stochastic %K	20.01% (oversold territory)	[2]
ADX (9-Day)	22.60 (moderate trend strength)	[2]
Bearish Momentum (-DI vs +DI)	23.73 >17.59	[2]
Year-to-Date Return	+13.02%	[2]

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• SPX Index
  : Core benchmark for U.S. equities.
• ETFs
  : SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF), VOO (Vanguard S&P500 ETF), IVV (iShares Core S&P500 ETF).

All SPX sectors, including

, Healthcare (13%), Financials (12%), and Consumer Discretionary (11%) [0].

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• Intraday Details
  : No data on the exact time/price of the SMA100 break (before the Reddit post).
• Drivers
  : No information on specific events (e.g., Fed comments, earnings) causing the dip.

• Short-Term Risk
  : Position below SMA20/SMA50 may lead to volatility in SPX-linked instruments.
• Long-Term Risk
  : A sustained close below SMA100 would confirm a bearish trend reversal.

1. Subsequent Closes
   : Watch for SPX closing below SMA100 in the next 1-3 days.
2. Volatility
   : Track Average True Range (ATR) for increased uncertainty.
3. Sector Leadership
   : Identify sectors driving the reversal (e.g., Defensive vs Growth).

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[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_stock_daily_prices result for ^GSPC).
[2] Barchart.com: S&P500 Index Technical Analysis (https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/%24SPX/technical-analysis).

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: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions.