Oil Price Decline on November 22, 2025: Drivers and Mid-Term Outlook

On November 22, 2025, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CL=F) fell by 1.59% to $58.06 with above-average volume of 325,649 contracts [0]. Key short-term drivers include:

1. Geopolitical Risk Reduction
   : Unconfirmed U.S.-brokered peace plan rumors between Russia and Ukraine lowered the risk premium [1][2].
2. Supply Resumption
   : Russia’s Novorossiysk port (20% of Russian oil exports) resumed operations on November 17 after a Ukrainian attack, increasing global supply [3].
3. Profit-Taking
   : Traders exited positions following CLF26 (Jan 2026 contract) closing above $60.50 [5].
   Mid-term bearish factors include the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast of growing global inventories through 2026 [4] and OPEC’s revised outlook (supply-demand balance instead of deficit) [6].

• Geopolitical rumors significantly impact commodity prices even without confirmation.
• Novorossiysk port’s role as a critical export hub links infrastructure stability to global oil supply.
• Technical analysis advocates (per Reddit discussion) emphasize price trends over news, noting WTI’s months-long downward consolidation.

• Unconfirmed Peace Plan
  : Price reversal risk if negotiations fail.
• Oversupply
  : EIA’s 2026 inventory growth forecast may pressure energy sector profitability.
• Geopolitical Volatility
  : Future attacks on Russian infrastructure could disrupt supply.

No significant opportunities identified in the analysis.

• WTI price: $58.06 (-1.59%) on November 22, 2025 [0].
• Trading volume: 325,649 contracts (above 271k average) [0].
• Novorossiysk port: Resumed operations on November 17 (20% of Russian oil exports) [3].
• EIA forecast: Brent crude to average $55/bbl in 2026 [4].
• CLF26 contract: $59.60 (Jan 2026) [5].