Analysis Report: Fed's Collins Hesitant About December Rate Cut (Nov22,2025)

On November22,2025, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated that she is hesitant about cutting interest rates in December, citing ongoing risks to both inflation and job mandates. Collins noted that monetary policy is currently “in the right place” [16]. Her comments align with broader Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hesitancy, as recent meeting minutes revealed a lack of majority support for a December easing [13].

Collins’ hawkish comments had a mixed impact on the market on November22:

• Financials
  : The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) closed up +1.10% [3], likely reflecting investor confidence in bank profitability amid stable rates.
• Real Estate
  : The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) closed up +1.31% [4], a surprising gain given rate-sensitive nature of the sector.
• Technology
  : The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) saw a modest gain of +0.39% [7], indicating limited impact on growth stocks.
• Utilities
  : The Utilities sector was the worst performer (-0.88557%) [1], aligning with the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) closing with a small gain of +0.15% [9].
• Dollar
  : The US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) closed slightly up +0.02% [8], reflecting minimal currency market reaction.
• Rate Cut Odds
  : According to Yahoo Finance, the probability of a Fed December rate cut collapsed to30% after Collins’ comments, down from previous levels [12].

Key data points from November22 include:

• Sector Performance
  : Healthcare (+1.73341%) as best performer, Utilities (-0.88557%) as worst performer [1]
• ETF Performance
  :
  • Financials (XLF): +1.10% [3]
  • Real Estate (XLRE): +1.31% [4]
  • Technology (XLK): +0.39% [7]
  • Utilities (XLU): +0.15% [9]
• Dollar Index
  : +0.02% [8]
• 10-Year Treasury Yield
  : Closed at 4.06% on November21 [0] (November22 data unavailable [5])
• December Rate Cut Probability
  : 30% (post-Collins comments) [12]

Directly impacted instruments:

1. US Treasury Yields
   :10-year yield (^TNX) at 4.06% (Nov21) [0]
2. Financial ETFs
   : XLF (+1.10%) [3]
3. Real Estate ETFs
   : XLRE (+1.31%) [4]
4. Utilities ETFs
   : XLU (+0.15%) [9]
5. Dollar Index
   : DX-Y.NYB (+0.02%) [8]

Related sectors: Healthcare (best performer) and Technology (modest gain) [1,7]

1. November2210-Year Yield
   : Closing data for the10-year Treasury (^TNX) is unavailable [5].
2. Exact Rate Cut Probability
   : Conflicting reports exist regarding the CME FedWatch probability for December rate cuts (30% vs.70%) [12,15].

• Rate Sensitivity
  : Users should be aware that conflicting signals from Fed officials may significantly impact rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate [1,9].
• Volatility
  : This development raises concerns about potential market volatility as investors adjust their monetary policy expectations [12].
• Monitoring Needs
  : Key factors to watch include upcoming Fed speeches, inflation data, and job reports to gauge the likelihood of a December rate cut.

• “Users should be aware that the conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding December interest rate cuts may significantly impact rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate.”
• “This development raises concerns about potential market volatility as investors adjust their expectations for monetary policy.”
• “Historical patterns suggest that uncertainty in Fed policy typically leads to increased volatility in rate-sensitive assets, which users should factor into their analysis.”

This report provides factual information and does not constitute investment advice. Users should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.