Market Analysis Report: Reddit Post on November 22, 2025 Market Vibe Shift

November 22, 2025 (UTC)

---

On November 22, 2025 (EST), a Reddit user posted a discussion about a “total shift” in market vibe this month, highlighting three key trends:

• Tech sector cooling off due to AI bubble talk and (initially) fewer expected Fed rate cuts
• Random sell-offs not aligned with strong earnings (e.g., NVIDIA [NVDA] and Palantir [PLTR])
• Uncertainty about whether the sell-off signals extreme fear or buying opportunities

The post included arguments about market manipulation by big investors, price driving narrative over fundamentals, and potential buying opportunities amid temporary bullish rest. [1]

---

• Tech Sector Underperformance:
  The Tech sector was the second-worst performer on November22 (up only 0.146%), with only Utilities (-0.885%) faring worse—aligning with the Reddit OP’s claim of tech cooling off. [0]
• NVDA & PLTR Price Drops:
  NVDA fell
  14.03%
  (Nov3–21) and PLTR dropped
  24.48%
  in the same period, despite both reporting record-breaking earnings. This reflects the OP’s observation of sell-offs not aligned with fundamentals. [0]
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shift:
  Contrary to the OP’s mention of “fewer expected Fed rate cuts,” market expectations for a December rate cut rose to
  above70%
  (from near40% the prior day) as of November22, driven by comments from New York Fed President John Williams. [3][4]

• AI Bubble Narrative:
  Michael Burry’s
  $1 billion bet
  against NVDA and PLTR (disclosed in October2025) and his warnings of an AI bubble have amplified bearish sentiment in tech stocks. Burry plans to release more details on November25. [5][6][7]
• Fundamental-Sentiment Disconnect:
  Strong earnings from NVDA (94% YoY revenue growth) and PLTR (63% YoY revenue growth) but weak price performance suggest a potential shift in investor priorities from fundamentals to sentiment. [8][9]

---

• NVDA Q32025:
  Revenue $35.1B (94% YoY growth), Data Center revenue $30.8B (112% YoY), gross margin guidance mid-70s for Blackwell ramp. [8]
• PLTR Q32025:
  Revenue $1.181B (63% YoY), Rule of40 score
  114%
  (highest ever), TCV bookings $2.8B (151% YoY). [9]

• NVDA:
  Nov3–21: Open $208.08 → Close $178.88 (14.03% drop), avg daily volume
  218.52M
  . [0]
• PLTR:
  Nov3–21: Open $205.05 → Close $154.85 (24.48% drop), avg daily volume
  69.98M
  . [0]

• December rate cut probability:
  70%+
  (as of Nov22) vs. ~40% Nov21. [3][4]

---

• NVDA:
  Leading AI semiconductor company, target of Burry’s bearish bets.
• PLTR:
  Enterprise AI software provider, also targeted by Burry.

• Tech:
  AI, semiconductors, and enterprise software subsectors (e.g., cloud providers using NVDA GPUs, PLTR’s enterprise clients).
• Broad Market:
  S&P500 and NASDAQ (tech-heavy indices) may be impacted by further volatility in NVDA/PLTR.

---

1. Burry’s November25 Update:
   Details on his AI bubble thesis and potential market implications.
2. Fed’s December10 Decision:
   Whether a rate cut will reverse tech’s cooling trend.
3. Structural vs. Temporary Sell-Off:
   Whether NVDA/PLTR’s price drops are a correction or the start of a longer downturn.

• Bullish View:
  The sell-off presents buying opportunities (per OP’s argument) given strong fundamentals of NVDA/PLTR. Bulls believe the price drop is temporary and driven by sentiment.
• Bearish View:
  Burry’s bets and price weakness on good earnings signal an AI bubble that may burst, leading to further downside.

• Disconnect Between Fundamentals & Sentiment:
  NVDA/PLTR’s price drops despite record earnings may lead to increased volatility. Users should monitor this gap closely.
• AI Bubble Risk:
  Burry’s $1 billion bet against NVDA/PLTR and his public warnings raise concerns about potential downside for these stocks and the broader tech sector.
• Fed Policy Uncertainty:
  While rate cut expectations have risen, a surprise hold in December could further pressure tech stocks.

1. Michael Burry’s November25 Update:
   Details on his AI bubble thesis.
2. Fed’s December10 Rate Decision:
   Impact on tech sector liquidity.
3. NVDA/PLTR Price Action:
   Whether prices rebound or continue to decline amid strong fundamentals.
4. Tech Sector Performance:
   Trends in AI and semiconductor subsectors to gauge broader market sentiment.

---

This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Users should conduct their own research before making any decisions. The market is subject to significant volatility and risk.
Michael Burry’s $1 billion bet against NVDA and PLTR, along with his AI bubble warnings, is a strong risk indicator. Users should carefully evaluate this before investing in these stocks or the broader tech sector.
All data is sourced from the tools provided and is accurate as of November22,2025. Market conditions may change rapidly.