Leaked Altman Memo Highlights OpenAI's Competitive Crisis Amid Google Gemini 3.0 Surge

Reddit users widely argue OpenAI lacks a sustainable moat (competitors replicated ChatGPT quickly) and predict LLMs will become a commodity [reddit]. Key concerns include Nvidia’s revenue exposure to OpenAI’s struggles and Google’s unbeatable mix of data, scientists, hardware, and cashflow [reddit]. Some users note Gemini outperforms in benchmarks but makes dumb mistakes in real-world use.

The leaked memo (published by The Information on Nov20,2025) acknowledges Google’s Gemini3.0 lead, revises OpenAI’s 2026 revenue growth to single digits, and mentions a ‘Shallotpeat’ comeback plan [1][2][3]. Gemini3.0 outperforms GPT5.1 in ARC-AGI-2 (31.1% vs ~15.5%) and GPQA Diamond (91.9% vs87.9%), with Deep Think mode widening gaps [8]. It features a 1M-token window and deep Google ecosystem integration [8].

Reddit’s moat skepticism aligns with research’s Gemini benchmark lead, but ‘wartime footing’ and hiring freeze claims are unsubstantiated [research]. The real-world vs benchmark debate persists (Reddit user feedback vs research data). Implications: OpenAI’s strategic pivot (Shallotpeat) is critical; Google’s ecosystem advantage drives long-term value.

Risks: OpenAI’s revenue slowdown, Nvidia’s AR exposure, LLM commoditization. Opportunities: OpenAI’s comeback plan, Google’s Gemini ecosystem growth driving GOOGL’s AI revenue.

[reddit]: Reddit r/stocks discussion (PostID:1p39cmr)